17 TACKLES FOR LOSS, led by Gholston

Adam Rittenberg over at ESPN deserves some kudos for writing what we all know:  the Spartan defense rocks.  He calls the Big Green Machine a "model to emulate" for other teams looking to compete on a national basis.  My God, that trench crew in our Outback Bowl win over Georgia --  DE William Gholston (#2), DT Jerel Worthy (#99), DT Anthony White (#98), Marcus Rush (#44) -- consistently pushed the Dog line back time and time again.  Right in their face.  Look at the DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET below, lit up like a Christmas Tree.  When three of your four tackle leaders are defensive lineman, it means you have a devastating defense.  (In the JLS-slapface era, our leading tacklers were SAFETIES). Lookit the stat sheet, by God - Gholston 7 tackles (5 TFL), Rush 6 tackles (2 TFL), White 5 tackles (3 TFL), Worthy 4 tackles (2 TFL) ... brings tears of joy to the ES.   17 TACKLES FOR LOSS by the Spartan defense... 17!!  Unreal, the effort. Gholston put on a First Team All-American effort the Spartan Nation can be proud of.  Denicos Allen, Chris Norman, Max Bullough all laid the wood in support where necessary... but this was a DEFENSIVE LINE led effort.  Gholston's post-game You Tube video ("everybody gotta eat") ain't too bad, either.  Lots to look foward to, Spartan fans, for many years to come...

Michigan State      
## Player               Solo  Ast  Tot  TFL/Yds  FF FR-Yd Intc BrUp Blkd Sack/Yds QH
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2  Gholston, William       7    .    7  5.0/16   .  1-6    .      1    .   2.0/10   .
44 Rush, Marcus            6    1    7  2.0/4    .   .     .      1    .      .     .
98 White,Anthony Rashad    5    2    7  3.0/7    .   .     .      .    1      .     .
39 Robinson, Trenton       5    1    6     .     .   .     .      .    .      .     .
99 Worthy, Jerel           4    1    5  2.0/2    .   .     .      .    .      .     .
10 Norman, Chris           4    1    5  1.5/7    1   .     .      .    .      .     .
28 Allen, Denicos          2    3    5  1.5/6    .   .     .      .    .   1.0/5    .
31 Dennard, Darqueze       3    1    4     .     .   .    2-38    .    .      .     .
40 Bullough, Max           2    1    3     .     .   .     .      .    .      .     .
52 Drone, Denzel           2    1    3  1.0/4    .   .     .      .    .      .     .
9  Lewis, Isaiah           1    2    3     .     .   .     .      .    .      .     .
5  Adams, Johnny           2    .    2     .     .   .     .      .    .      .     .
23 Jones, Jairus           1    1    2     .     .   .     .      .    .      .     .

Michigan State deserves Top Ten nod after Outback win over Georgia

More on this later.  BUT GREAT BIG GREEN VICTORY!!!!  Michigan State 33, Georgia 30 - in 3 OT!  Said the Doctor - "We've beaten every football team in the Big Ten in the last four years. The standard has been set by our seniors. ... Two 11-win seasons, There's not too many football teams in the country that are saying that right now. I would think that this, hopefully, helps solidify a Top 10 ranking in this year's final polls."

Love the Big Ten and Georgia fans squirming... :)

Here are the stats: notable are that MSU was 6-20 on third downs and UGA was 6-18 on third downs; and, on Red Zone TDs, MSU was 3-5 while UGA was 1-3.  MSU's stout d-line held the Dogs to just 51 yards rushing on 39 carries - just 1.3 yards per attempt. OUCH!

Team Statistics (Final)
                          2011 Michigan State Football
           Michigan State vs Georgia (Jan 02, 2012 at Tampa, Florida)

                                    MSU       GA

FIRST DOWNS...................       15       15
  Rushing.....................        2        4
  Passing.....................       13        9
  Penalty.....................        0        2
NET YARDS RUSHING.............       73       51
  Rushing Attempts............       29       39
  Average Per Rush............      2.5      1.3
  Rushing Touchdowns..........        2        0
  Yards Gained Rushing........       94       98
  Yards Lost Rushing..........       21       47
NET YARDS PASSING.............      318      288
  Completions-Attempts-Int....  28-51-3  20-32-2
  Average Per Attempt.........      6.2      9.0
  Average Per Completion......     11.4     14.4
  Passing Touchdowns..........        1        2
TOTAL OFFENSE YARDS...........      391      339
  Total offense plays.........       80       71
  Average Gain Per Play.......      4.9      4.8
Fumbles: Number-Lost..........      0-0      1-1
Penalties: Number-Yards.......     8-50     5-15
PUNTS-YARDS...................    8-401    7-306
  Average Yards Per Punt......     50.1     43.7
  Net Yards Per Punt..........     33.6     43.3
  Inside 20...................        4        2
  50+ Yards...................        3        2
  Touchbacks..................        2        0
  Fair catch..................        1        3
KICKOFFS-YARDS................    6-366    5-294
  Average Yards Per Kickoff...     61.0     58.8
  Net Yards Per Kickoff.......     45.3     40.4
  Touchbacks..................        0        0
Punt returns: Number-Yards-TD.    2-3-0   1-92-1
  Average Per Return..........      1.5     92.0
Kickoff returns: Number-Yds-TD   5-92-0   6-94-0
  Average Per Return..........     18.4     15.7
Interceptions: Number-Yds-TD..   2-38-1   3-55-0
Fumble Returns: Number-Yds-TD.    1-6-0    0-0-0
Miscellaneous Yards...........        0        0
Possession Time...............    28:26    31:34
  1st Quarter.................     4:28    10:32
  2nd Quarter.................     8:24     6:36
  3rd Quarter.................     7:07     7:53
  4th Quarter.................     8:27     6:33
  OT  Quarter.................     0:00     0:00
Third-Down Conversions........  6 of 20  6 of 18
Fourth-Down Conversions.......   0 of 0   0 of 1
Red-Zone Scores-Chances.......      5-5      2-3
  Touchdowns..................      3-5      1-3
  Field goals.................      2-5      1-3
Sacks By: Number-Yards........     4-16      1-6
PAT Kicks.....................      1-1      2-2
Field Goals...................      2-2      2-4

ES Game Day: OUTBACK BOWL, Michigan State vs Georgia

#12 Michigan State (10-3) vs. #18 Georgia (10-3)
1:00 pm ET. Monday, Jan 2.
Rankings:  MSU #12 (AP), #13 (USA Today), #17 (BCS), #19 (Sagarin). Georgia #18 (USA Today), #18 (AP), #16 (BCS), #18 (Sagarin).

TV:  ABC

Weather: 65 degrees and sunny.

Line:  Georgia favored by 3

Predictions: SportsRatings (lots of stats in this): MSU 19-17; SEC Football Blog - MSU 28-27; MLive - MSU 27-24; Sporting News - MSU; So Fried Sports Blog - UGA 23-17; Sports Rumble Blog - UGA 34-31; CFB Computer Predictions - MSU 26-23;   Athlon Sports - UGA 20-17; DocSports - UGA 24-20;  BetVega - UGA31-24;  ESPN/Bennett - MSU 17-14; ESPN/Rittenberg - MSU 21-20; ESPN/Aschoff - UGA 27-24; ESPN/Low - UGA 30-21; CBSSports.com - MSU;  NBCSports/Tamahana - UGA 26-20; Rivals/Yahoo - UGA 24-17; CFN/Scout - MSU 27-24; Front Office Blogs - UGA 24-21; Dubsism Blog - MSU

Key Stat: The Spartan defense will be sturdy and consistent, as it has all year long.  Michigan State's offensive success will be the story of the game. The Spartans will score TDs in the Red Zone, and demonstrate a balanced offense, with more than 200 yards passing from Kirk Cousins and over 120 yards rushing as a team. And, expect Dantonio to once again pull a rabbit out of his hat with a trick play or three...

ES pick:  MSU 24, Georgia 17.

Spartans and Dogs: Red Zone TDs and Third Downs

ES keeps thinking of two stats:  red zone and third downs.  Let's compare these stats of UGA and MSU in their three losses, and the last five games. 

	MSU	UGA
LOSSES
Third down off	15-44 (34%)	14-46 (30%)
Third down def	18-41 (44%)	9-35 (26%)
Red zone scoring off	4-11 (36%)	4-7 (57%)
Red zone scoring def	9-10 (90%)	10-11 (91%)
LAST FIVE
Third down off	29-67 (43%)	38-75 (51%)
Third down def	28-77 (36%)	23-68 (34%)
Red zone scoring TD off	13-20 (65%)	15-19 (79%)
Red zone scoring TD def	12-20 (60%)	8-11 (73%)

What is notable here is third down defense in the three losses, and red zone scoring defense in the three losses.   In its three losses, Georgia's defense remained admirable in stopping opponents on third downs - just 9 out of 35 attempts (26%).  However, in Michigan State's three losses, its defense allowed 18 third downs on 41 attempts (44%).  And, both teams red zone defense was horrific in losses.  Both Georgia and Michigan State gave up touchdowns 90% or more of the time that opponents were inside their 20 yard line.  

What the ES finds is that the Spartan defense is vulnerable on third downs when they lose... and both teams easily give up TDs in the red zone when they lose.  Stopping third downs and stopping red zone TDs are critical to success.  Georgia's defense seems to have the advantage on third downs.

But, what do the last five games mean?  The ES uses this as a barometer of how the teams fared going into bowl season.  When you look at the Sagarin ratings of the opponents in each of the final five games, the average rating is roughly equal (MSU 67.6, Georgia 63.2). Look below:

MSU (average opponent rating = 67.6)	UGA (average opponent rating = 63.2)
Wisconsin (8). Loss. Neutral.	LSU (1). Loss.  Neutral.
Northwestern (62). Win. Away.	Georgia Tech (50). Win. Home.
Indiana (138). Win. Home.	Kentucky (87). Win. Home.
Iowa (41). Win. Away.	Auburn (45). Win. Home.
Minnesota (89). Win. Home.	New Mexico State (133). Win. Home.

Again, while UGA has marginally better stats in its last five games, four were played at home - while MSU had to earn two wins on the road at locations they have lost frequently in the past several seasons (Iowa and Northwestern).  UGA was humiliated in its championship game loss to the nation's best team, LSU.  In the Big Ten championship, Michigan State outplayed Wisconsin, except for the final two minutes, and lost a heartbreaker. Both teams struggled at home against opponents they should have whipped easily (Minnesota, Kentucky); both teams had a shit-kicking win at home (Indiana, NMSU); both teams had a surprisingly dominating victory (Iowa, Auburn).

The ES sees Michigan State's defense as standing up a bit better than Georgia under road conditions, but both teams are about equal statistically. 

OUTBACK hype: Spartan vs Bulldogs, will it be third down conversions?

OK, the ES returns from his Holiday absence and is back for the attack, with the hype for what should be a GREAT game in the Michigan State vs Georgia Outback Bowl.  First off, the ES is NOT upset at the Big Green getting a fourth-tiered bowl game instead of a top-tiered BCS game.  Mind you, scUM is completely undeserving of such an accomplishment to give them a nod to the Sugar Bowl, considering how well and consistent the Spartans have played all year, including a 2-TD thumping of the roadkill earlier this year (Why not pick MSU vs Michigan? The Spartan Nation would have sold that out in an instant… but why watch the Spartans break Robinson and scUM’s bones again?).  That said, MSU had all the cards in their hands, and had a chance to win to go to Pasadena… at least we could play for it Spartan fans, we never had that chance in previous years.   Yes, baby steps suck. 

But, this is a BIG baby step. The Spartans need to use their heartbreaking loss to Wisky in the Big Ten title game and feast on Georgia in the Outback Bowl.  Defeating an SEC team on January 2 will be a big deal, especially the Dogs.

The ES pulled out his Phil Steele 2011 preview and first looked that bowl predictions:  Steele predicted a Spartan trip to the Gator Bowl and a Georgia trip to the Cap One bowl. Give Steele credit there, pretty close.   Steele also predicted Georgia to win the SEC East, and for the Spartans to tie Nebraska and win the B1G Legends.  So, Steele’s predictions come true, or at least within the ballpark.

About the Outback Bowl:  both teams come in with great defenses.  

	MSU	UGA
Rush def	104 ypg (#12)	103 ypg (#9)
Pass def	168 ypg (#12)	165 ypg (#8)
Total def	273 ypg (#5)	268 ypg (#3)
Scoring def	18 ppg (#9)	20 ppg (#17)
3rd down conv def	34%	29%
Rush off	143 ypg (#76)	173 ypg (#40)
Pass off	248 ypg (#45)	241 ypg (#50)
Total off	391 ypg (#61)	414 ypg (#39)
Scoring off	31 ppg (#38)	32 ppg (#33)
3rd own conv off	40%	44%
Turnover difference	+ 0.54 (#23)	+0.54 (#23)

What is the biggest difference in the stats?  Third downs – UGA held its opponents to a lower percentage on third down conversions (29%) than did Michigan State (34%).  And, at 40%, the Spartan offense has been good on third downs, but far from the MOST efficient third down offense in the nation…  This is a concern for MSU, for its defense to be able to rise and make the plays in the most difficult situations – something it failed to accomplish late in the two games against Wisconsin….

That said, the ES is getting jacked for the Outback.  I’ll watch at the Peanut Barrell.  Check out the polls at the right… There will be more to come throughout the week.  But, this is a first start – GO GREEN!

MSU will play Georgia in Outback

#16 Michigan State will play #17 Georgia in the Outback Bowl on January 2 on ABC.  MSU dropped to #16 in the BCS because they played an extra game, and Michigan moves up to #12 without playing a game.

Pure unadulterated bullshit.  Let's kick Georgia's ass.