Big Ten schedule strength: Illinois is Biggest Wimp; Michigan State schedules strong

Scheduling Charleston Southern? Gotta sell tickets somehow!

What is the top cupcake schedule in the Big Ten, and what school should be rewarded by having the most competitive schedule?    The ES looks at this every year, and prefers using Jeff Sagarin’s ratings from the previous year… because, it is the only rating system that includes all Division I-FCS team rankings with Division I-FBS rankings.  Because playing inferior FCS teams is becoming more commonplace among Big Ten teams, trying to see how they rank compared to FBS opponents provides an interesting unit of measure of schedule strength.    

Michigan State has a decent schedule overall, fourth toughest in the Big Ten, scheduling against an average opponent rank of 59.5  The matchups against CMU and EMU are gimme-victories; but, bulking up against Boise State and ND make up for scheduling these other sins.  The braggadocios down the road scheduled defending national champ 'Bama, giving them the toughest schedule.

Ranking schedules by team, and legends (L) have 5 of the 6 most difficult schedules in the Big Ten heading into 2012.

1. Michigan 54.3 L

2. Nebraska 55.6 L

3. Penn St. 58.6

4. Mich St. 59.5 L

5. Minnesota 60.3 L

6. Iowa 62.0 L

7. Ohio St. 62.6

8. Indiana 63.9

9. Northwestern 63.1

10. Purdue 66.7

11. Wisconsin 66.8

12. Illinois 70.8

WIMPY ILLINOIS GETS THE CUPCAKE NOD: Looking at Sagarin, the ES is most offended by Illinois, scheduling woeful Charleston Southern in week three.  The Buccaneers sported a lovely 0-11 record last year as a member of the Big South.  Their schedule is anything but a strength, a conference-worst 70.8 average.

SOME DANDY MATCHUPS:  The best non-conference matchups for 2012 jumped right out.  Get tickets to these games.   These were placed in order by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams. 

1. Nebraska (25) vs S Miss (24).  -1.

2. MSU (18) vs ND (26).  +8.

3. MSU (18) vs Boise St (9). -9.

4. Mich (11) vs Alabama (1). -10.

5. Ohio St (49) vs Cal (38). -11.

6. Mich (11) at ND (26). +15.

7. Purdue (65) at ND (26). -39.

PATHETIC CUPCAKE SCHEDULING ABOUNDS.  The most pathetic non-conference matchups for 2012 were determined by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams.  Each of these institutions should be ashamed for scheduling down to such low levels.

1. Illinois (55) vs Charleston Southern (237). +182.

2. Nebraska (25) vs Idaho St (205). +180.

3. Mich (11) vs UMass (150). +139.

4. MSU (18) at CMU (137). +119.

5. Ohio St (49) vs UAB (152). +103

6-t. Purdue (65) vs E. Kentucky (153). +88.

6-t. Iowa (45) vs CMU (137). + 88.

8. Minn (88) at UNLV (155). +67.

PLAYING WAY DOWN TO ANOTHER LEVEL: Notably, there are eight games against Division I-FCS institutions in the Big Ten this fall: Northern Iowa (#75) is lucky to schedule two Big Ten teams, vs Iowa and vs Wisconsin, New Hampshire (#120) vs Minnesota, Idaho State (#205) vs Nebraska; South Dakota (#130) vs Northwestern; Charleston Southern (#237) vs Illinois; Indiana State (#117) vs Indiana; and, Eastern Kentucky (#153) vs Purdue.

FULL SCHEDULE STRENGTH LISTING:  Below, here are the schedules for each of the teams in the big ten, and their final Sagarin ranking from 2011 next to the name of each team, followed by the schedule strength (SS) average.

-----LEGENDS-----

IOWA (#45, SS# 62.0)
      
1-Sep    vs N Ill    47
8-Sep    Iowa St    53
15-Sep    N Iowa    75
22-Sep    CMU    137
29-Sep    Minn    88
6-Oct      
13-Oct    at MSU    18
20-Oct    Penn St    28
27-Oct    at NW    58
3-Nov    at Ind    139
10-Nov    Pur    65
17-Nov    at Mich    11
24-Nov    Neb    25

MICH (#11, SS# 54.3)
      
1-Sep    vs Alabama    1
8-Sep    Air Force    72
15-Sep    Umass    150
22-Sep    at ND    26
29-Sep      
6-Oct    at Purdue    65
13-Oct    Ill    55
20-Oct    MSU    18
27-Oct    at Neb    25
3-Nov    at Minn    88
10-Nov    NW    58
17-Nov    Iowa    45
24-Nov    at Oh St    49

MICH STATE (#18, SS# 59.5)
      
1-Sep    Boise St    9
8-Sep    at CMU    137
15-Sep    ND    26
22-Sep    EMU    119
29-Sep    Oh St    49
6-Oct    at Ind    139
13-Oct    Iowa    45
20-Oct    at Mich    11
27-Oct    at Wis    8
3-Nov    Neb    25
10-Nov      
17-Nov    NW    58
24-Nov    at Minn    88

MINN   (#88, SS# 60.3)
      
1-Sep    at UNLV    155
8-Sep    New Hampshire    120
15-Sep    WMU    78
22-Sep    Syr    86
29-Sep    at Iowa    45
6-Oct      
13-Oct    NW    58
20-Oct    at Wisc    8
27-Oct    Purdue    65
3-Nov    Mich    11
10-Nov    at ill    55
17-Nov    at Neb    25
24-Nov    MSU    18

NEBRASKA (#25, SS# 55.6)
      
1-Sep    S Miss    24
8-Sep    at UCLA    66
15-Sep    Ark St    67
22-Sep    Idaho St    205
29-Sep    Wisc    8
6-Oct    at Oh St    49
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at NW    58
27-Oct    Mich    11
3-Nov    at MSU    18
10-Nov    Penn St    28
17-Nov    Minn    88
24-Nov    at Iowa    45

NORTHWESTERN (#58, SS# 63.1)
      
1-Sep    at Syracuse    86
8-Sep    Vandy    42
15-Sep    BC    90
22-Sep    S Dakota    130
29-Sep    Indiana    139
6-Oct    at Penn St    28
13-Oct    at Minn    88
20-Oct    Neb    25
27-Oct    Iowa    45
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Mich    11
17-Nov    at MSU    18
24-Nov    Illinois    55

-----LEADERS-----

ILLINOIS (#55, SS# 70.8)
      
1-Sep    WMU    78
8-Sep    at Ariz St    41
15-Sep    Char Southern  237
22-Sep    La Tech    48
29-Sep    Penn St    28
6-Oct    at Wisc    8
13-Oct    at Mich    11
20-Oct      
27-Oct    Indiana    139
3-Nov    at Oh St    49
10-Nov    Minn    88
17-Nov    Purdue    65
24-Nov    at NW    58

INDIANA (#139, SS# 63.9)
      
1-Sep    Ind St    117
8-Sep    at Umass    150
15-Sep    Ball St    100
22-Sep      
29-Sep    at NW    58
6-Oct    MSU    18
13-Oct    Oh St    49
20-Oct    at Navy    74
27-Oct    at Ill    55
3-Nov    Iowa    45
10-Nov    Wisc    8
17-Nov    at Penn St    28
24-Nov    at Pur    65

OHIO ST  (#49, SS# 62.6)
      
1-Sep    Miami OH    98
8-Sep    C Fla    77
15-Sep    Cal    38
22-Sep    UAB    152
29-Sep    at MSU    18
6-Oct    Neb  
13-Oct    at Ind    139
20-Oct    Pur    65
27-Oct    at Penn St    28
3-Nov    Ill    55
10-Nov      
17-Nov    at Wisc    8
24-Nov    Mich    11

PENN ST (#28, SS# 58.6)
      
1-Sep    Ohio    68
8-Sep    at Va    71
15-Sep    Navy    74
22-Sep    Temple    46
29-Sep    at Ill    55
6-Oct    NW    58
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at Iowa    45
27-Oct    Oh St    49
3-Nov    at Pur    65
10-Nov    at Neb    25
17-Nov    Ind    139
24-Nov    Wisc    8

PURDUE (#65, SS# 66.7)
      
1-Sep    E Ky    153
8-Sep    at ND    26
15-Sep    EMU    119
22-Sep      
29-Sep    Marshall    79
6-Oct    Mich    11
13-Oct    Wisc    8
20-Oct    at OSU    49
27-Oct    at Minn    88
3-Nov    Penn St    28
10-Nov    at Iowa    45
17-Nov    at Ill    55
24-Nov    Ind    139

WISCONSIN (#8, SS# 66.8)
      
1-Sep    N Iowa    75
8-Sep    at Oreg St    87
15-Sep    Utah St    80
22-Sep    UTEP    92
29-Sep    at Neb    25
6-Oct    Ill    55
13-Oct    at Pur    65
20-Oct    Minn    88
27-Oct    MSU    18
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Ind    139
17-Nov    Oh St    49
24-Nov    at Penn St    28

MSU Football schedules cupcakes in 2013, 2014

Spartan Nation:  let's grade the football non-conference schedules for the next three years. The ES gives a high grade of a B- for 2012.  Then, 2013 and 2014 are pathetically uninteresting and uncompetitive.  Jacksonville State in 2014? Come on.  Which team would you schedule for MSU to play in the open date of September 6, 2014?  Hopefully another major BCS-caliber football program like the Oregon Ducks.  The ES hates scheduling revenue-generating bottom-feeders.

2012: Grade = B-.
Aug. 31 BOISE STATE
Sept. 8 at Central Michigan
Sept. 15 NOTRE DAME
Sept. 22 EASTERN MICHIGAN

2013: Grade = C-.
Aug. 31 WESTERN MICHIGAN
Sept. 7 SOUTH FLORIDA
Sept. 14 YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Sept. 21 at Notre Dame

2014: Grade = C.
Aug. 30 JACKSONVILLE STATE
Sept. 6 TBD
Sept. 13 at Oregon
Sept. 20 EASTERN MICHIGAN

Michigan State - Michigan scheduled for 12 noon on Oct. 3

The Michigan State - Michigan game will be a 12:00 noon kickoff on the Big Ten Network. MSU's losses the past two weeks certainly diminshed the "prime time" value of the game beyond a rivalry. ABC picked up the Penn State at Illinois game for 3:30 pm and Wisconsin-Minny will also be a Noon game.

More on MSU - Michigan Game Time Scenarios

Let's look at the schedule for Oct. 3. Right now the Big Ten Network has two games scheduled, and ABC has one Pac 10 prime-time game scheduled:

12 pm. NW at Purdue (BTN)
7 pm. OSU at Indiana (BTN)
8 pm. Southern Cal at Cal (ABC)

Other Big Ten games that weekend: Michigan at MSU, JoePa at Illinois, Wisconsin at Minnesota, Arkansas State at Iowa.

So, essentially, we have lots of regional and national spots to fill on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2 at this point in time. ABC/ESPN has tv contracts with the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, and Pac 10. Depending on what happens throughout the season, ABC/ESPN will defer to the best-rated matchups in a pair, or trio, of broadcast games across these conferences. We're talking basically seven open slots for 12 noon (national, 2 regional), 3:30 pm (national, 2 regional), and one slot for the Prime Time 8 pm matchup (ESPN Game Day). It's possible they may run more football - but methinks that the bigwings would prefer some diversity and show bowling or ice skating or gandy dancing or something.

The ES looked at the first week and saw some bad performances, and from that considered the following games as top games on Oct. 3 in other conferences, likely in consideration by ABC/ESPN in national or regional TV. NOTE (Washington is at Notre Dame, on NBC). Thusly, the ES argues these as the best Potential ESPN Game Days (8 pm):

* Big Ten - Michigan at MSU; Wisconsin at Minnesota (new stadium);
* Big 12/ACC - Oklahoma at Miami; Arkansas at Texas A&M;
* Pac 10 - UCLA at Stanford; Oregon St and Arizona St;

Let's prognosticate:

1. If either Michigan or MSU take a nose dive (either losing to ND for instance), it likely blows a chance for MSU-Michigan Game Day.
2. If Wisky and Minny go undefeated, with a new stadium, they might get it (Wisconsin plays MSU and Minny at Northwestern the week prior; Minny also hosts Cal next week).
3. If Oklahoma and Miami win out from this point forward, ESPN loves a top-tiered non-conference matchup, reminscent of Barry Switzer vs. Jimmy Johnson, and with the "return of Sam Bradford" looming large (Oklahoma has creampuffs scheduled, Miami plays Ga Tech and Va Tech).
4. If UCLA and Stanford win out (this weekend, Stanford plays Wake Forest, UCLA at Tennessee then hosts Kansas State), they make a good case...
5. as does undefeated Oregon State and Arizona State (Oregon State plays Cinci and Arizona, Arizona State plays at Georgia)... though two Pac 10 prime time games on the same network will be difficult to believe.
6. Arkansas won't go undefeated (they have to play Georgia and Alabama), but Texas A&M likely will (creampuffs). If Arkansas does, then the intrigue for this game goes sky high, as both would likely be undefeated.


But, bottom line... this leaves LOTS OF ROOM FOR ERROR AND PREDICTION. Don't believe Rexrode, or anyone other than the ABC/ESPN Gods, for a few weeks until things shake out.

Michigan State - Michigan at 3:30 pm???

Is the Michigan - Michigan State game on Oct. 3 going to be a 3:30 pm kick? Our friends at The Other Side of Spartan Sports report that the LSJ's Joe Rexrode thinks so... "Joe Rexrode reports that this game has been finalized as a 3:30 p.m. kick. "

But, there is no official word out of the Big Ten Conference, and if Michigan takes a nose-dive, this may be a 12-Noon game. The Big Ten usually doesn't announce upcoming football game times until two weeks prior to games, depending on ABC/ESPN decisions, which are first priority for the league's revenue. The ES sez: stay tuned, let's hope Joe's right!

QB Flip Flop, MSU Favored by 41 over Montana State, Statewide Media Previews

Grinz over at Mlive predicts that Michigan State definitely has a flip-flop situation at QB, and Kirk Cousins is getting the nod to start over Keith Nichol based on Cousins paying his dues. The two are co-equals. "Cousins will get the start against Montana State out of deference to the dues he has paid to the program and Nichol will get about as much playing time. Nichol will start what is shaping up as a difficult game against Central Michigan and Cousins will go in off the bench."

The ES still can't find a line on the Michigan State - Montana State game, though our loyal poster spartanpride notes one offshore bookie has the Green as a 41-pt favorite (still can't find it). Florida was noted as a 73-point favorite over FCS/I-AA Charleston Southern by Danny Sheridan, though that line is no longer posted.

The Lansing State Journal has their annual preview, and they predict Michigan State to finish with Iowa tied for 3rd and an 8-4/5-3 record. The Freep's preview has multiple reporters picking MSU either 8-4 or 9-3, and anywhere from 2nd to 4th. The Detroit News picks MSU to finish third, with its team preview out on Thursday.

When the game kicks off, MSU will no longer be among the NCAA elite that have never scheduled out of the Division down to 1-AA/FCS. Currently, the only five NCAA teams to schedule only D1-A: Michigan State, Notre Dame, USC, UCLA and Washington.

Michigan State Playing the Michigan MAC 2009-2020

Michigan State has added to its future schedules of non-conference opponents with a "Celebrate the State" series against Michigan Division FBS Mid-American Conference opponents. MSU will play CMU, EMU, and WMU each four times from 2011-2020, three times in Spartan Stadium and once on the road.

MSU vs CMU: 2011, 2015, 2018 in East Lansing. 2012 in Mt. Pleasant.
MSU vs EMU: 2012, 2014, 2016 in East Lansing. 2018 or 2020 in Ypsilanti.
MSU vs WMU: 2013, 2017, 2019 in East Lansing. 2015 in Kalamazoo.

Love the press release - MSU last played in Ypsi vs EMU (Michigan State Normal College) in 1899 and in Kalamazoo vs Kalamazoo College in 1915.

The ES isn't fond of playing non-BCS teams, but at least we can keep the money in the state, and at least it is in Division 1-A/FBS. Scheduling the Michigan MAC also significantly reduces travel costs for the Spartan athletic budget (expect to see more of this in-state scheduling around the country as budgets continuously tighten). So, for three times in the next decade, MSU is willing to forgo the $3 million per game revenue of scheduling a home football game to instead play on the road vs the Michigan MAC (MSU would make another $75,000 or more per game from added attendance if it scheduled another BCS team at home - easier said than done). Indeed, it IS better to schedule the Michigan MAC instead of playing home games out of the FBS Division. But, it also demonstrates that the Spartans are willing to work with the scheduling gods... and, if so, the ES again beats the dead horse and sez again, let's play a Round Robin in the Big Ten.

It is nice to spread the wealth... but it would be an interesting sight to see Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mt. Pleasant half filled with Green and White (and the ES) in 2012.

MSU Non-Conference Opponents 2009-2020:

2009: MONTANA ST., CMU, @ Notre Dame, WMU
2010: WMU, @ Florida Atlantic, NOTRE DAME, NO. COLORADO
2011: CMU, YOUNGSTOWN ST., FLORIDA ATLANTIC, @ Notre Dame
2012: @ CMU, EMU, NOTRE DAME
2013: WMU, @ Notre Dame
2014: EMU, @ West Virginia
2015: @ WMU, CMU, WEST VIRGINIA
2016: EMU, @ Alabama, NOTRE DAME
2017: WMU, ALABAMA, @ Notre Dame
2018: @ EMU, CMU, NOTRE DAME
2019: WMU, @ Notre Dame
2020: @ EMU

What do you think? Would you rather travel to Ypsilanti or Mt. Pleasant than see MSU play Northern Colorado or Youngstown State in East Lansing? Comment below...

MSU Athletics confirms Northern Colorado in 2010, Youngstown State in 2011 - Schedule Big Ten despite not sanctioned status

As noted by the ES earlier in the week, MSU does play Youngstown State in 2011, and Northern Colorado in 2010... MSU Football has released schedules for 2010 and 2011... watering down the schedule is truly unfortunate and does little to benefit MSU other than a "guaranteed win" (exception: Appalachian State) - it reduces BCS rankings, it brings in less income. In 2010, Ohio State and Indiana are off the Spartans' schedule; in 2011, Iowa and Northwestern are off the schedule.

Here's an idea: MSU plays Northern Colorado on Sept 25, 2010; Ohio State plays Eastern Michigan the same day. Why can't MSU and Ohio State play each other, despite it not being on the Big Ten docket? And, on Sept 3, 2011, MSU plays Youngstown State; Iowa plays Pittsburgh the same day. Why can't Iowa play MSU on Sept. 3, 2011? Obviously, the scheduling dates are open for these teams, and the schedule would be improved for all Big Ten teams if they played each other as a "nonconference" game. Why not?

2010

9/4 WESTERN MICHIGAN
9/11 @ Florida Atlantic
9/18 NOTRE DAME
9/25 N. COLORADO
10/2 WISCONSIN
10/9 @ Michigan
10/16 ILLINOIS
10/23 @ Northwestern
10/30 @ Iowa
11/6 MINNESOTA
11/13 PURDUE
11/20 @ Penn St

2011

9/3 YOUNGSTOWN ST.
9/10 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
9/17 @ NOTRE DAME
10/1 at Ohio St.
10/8 CENTRAL MICH
10/15 PURDUE
10/22 MICHIGAN
11/5 at Illinois
11/12 at Wisconsin
11/19 INDIANA
11/26 PENN ST

MSU to play Akron, Youngstown State, Northern Colorado? Why not play Michigan Tech?

The ES was tooling through the web and found NCAApalace.com which showed schedules in the next few years against Akron and Northern Colorado in 2010, and Youngstown State in 2011.... Akron in 2010 also showed up here. This scheduling was a surprise, and a disappointment if MSU continues to "schedule down."

But, there is NOTHING official out of Michigan State, and only the Youngstown State game is confirmed by their own publication on their website (see bottom of last page of PDF).

The ES previously stated his unhappiness of scheduling out of the division (FCS, aka 1-AA), largely due to lack of competitiveness and potential to lower BCS rankings; and, noted that MSU had earned an average of $73,000 less per game over the past decade scheduling non-BCS teams, let alone out of the division, as compared to 1-A opponents. Sigh, is anyone listening? Is Michigan Tech next?