Big Ten schedules down down down: A look at the toughest and easiest non-conference matchups The Enlightened Spartan: Big Ten schedules down down down: A look at the toughest and easiest non-conference matchups

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Big Ten schedules down down down: A look at the toughest and easiest non-conference matchups

The ES has looked at Sagarin Ratings to rate how each of the Big Ten teams stack up entering the 2011 season, and particularly to compare non-conference scheduling. OK, we can all dispute the validity of Sagarin ratings, especially before the ball has even been set on the tee for the first time. And, look at the ratings below (with MSU at #36, compared to ES composite at #18 and USA Today coaches’ at #17).

Sagarin Ratings
#. School. Sagarin pts.

3. Ohio State. 90.55
17. Wisconsin 82.76
18. Nebraska 82.61
19. Iowa 32.48
24. Penn State 81.06
36. MSU 77.38
54. scUM. 73.19
56. Illinois 73.09
66. Northwestern 70.31
80. Purdue 68.26
81. Minnesota 67.84
96. Indiana 63.77

However, the Sagarin ratings are the only ones out there that include Division I-FCS teams with Division I-FBS: that makes a total of 246 teams in the rankings. And, since the Big Ten and other BCS-conferences keep loading up with playing games vs the Sisters of the Poor, it is worth seeing the relative amount of worth of playing each of these games, in preparation for the Big Ten season.

Below, I include the rating of each non-conference game in the Big Ten, some of the weakest and strongest schedules. The argument can easily be made that the Big Ten is embarrassing in the number of non-Division games, and games vs non-BCS teams, that are creeping into scheduling, just to be bowl eligible if anything else.  The non-conference schedule strength is based on the Sagarin ratings. Illinois has the toughest non-conference schedule, and are the only program in the Big Ten with three of their four opponents ranked under #100. Notably, the AVERAGE non-conference schedule strength for the Big Ten is OVER #100, at 102.98. That is embarrassing. What does this mean? The Big Ten continues to dilute their schedule with weaker and weaker opponents… this is reason enough for the Big Ten to move to a nine-game schedule in 2017.

1 ILL 81.5
2 OSU 90.5
3 NEB 92.5
4 MICH 94.25
5 WIS 96.75
6 MSU 101
7 MINN 102.25
8 IOWA 109
9 NW 113
10 PUR 113.25
11 PSU 116.5
12 IND 125.25

average 102.9792

Toughest non-conference matchups:

1. #24 Penn State vs #1 Alabama (9/10).
2. #81 Minnesota at #10 USC (9/3).
3. #17 Wisconsin vs #23 Oregon State (9/10).

Weakest non-conference matchups:

1. #24 Penn State vs #209 Indiana State (9/3).
2. #19 Iowa vs. #198 Tennessee Tech (9/10).
3. #80 Purdue vs. #194 SE Missouri St (9/17).

Biggest swings between back-to-back non-conference games:

1. Penn State: 208 points, playing #209 Indiana State followed by #1 Alabama.
2. Purdue: 161 points, playing #194 SE Missouri State followed by 33 Notre Dame.
3. Minnesota: 152 points, playing #10 USC followed by #162 New Mexico St.

Non-conference games

MSU
9/2. Youngstown St. #151
9/10. Florida Atlantic #133
9/17. at Notre Dame #33
9/24. CMU #87

Illinois
9/3. Arkansas St. #119
9/10. San Diego St. #76
9/17. Arizona St. #34
9/14. Western Michigan #97

Indiana
9/3. vs. Ball State (in Indianapolis) #127
9/10. Virginia #65
9/17. S. Carolina St. #155
9/14. at North Texas #154

Iowa
9/3. Tennessee Tech #198
9/10. at Iowa St. #79
9/17. Pittsburgh #28
9/24. Louisiana-Monroe #131

Michigan
9/3. Western Michigan #97
9/10. Notre Dame #33
9/17. Eastern Michigan #171
9/14. San Diego State #76

Minnesota
9/3. at USC #10
9/10. New Mexico St. #162
9/17. Miami, Ohio #117
9/24. North Dakota St. #120

Nebraska
9/3. UT Chattanooga #148
9/10. Fresno St. #70
9/17. Washington #52
9/24. at Wyoming #100

Northwestern
9/3. at Boston College #38
9/10. Eastern Illinois #185
9/17. at Army #108
11/12. Rice #121

Ohio State
9/3. Akron #157
9/10. Toledo #103
9/17. at Miami, Fla. #30
9/24. Colorado #72

Penn St.
9/3. Indiana St. #209
9/10. Alabama #1
9/17. at Temple #85
9/24. Eastern Michigan #171

Purdue
9/3. Middle Tennessee St. #105
9/10. at Rice #121
9/17. SE Missouri St. #194
9/31. Notre Dame #33

Wisconsin
9/1. UNLV #113
9/10. Oregon St. #23
9/17. vs Northern Illinois (in Chicago) #75
9/24. South Dakota #176