Three strikes against Baylor: Vegas, 2014 margin of victory, and History. Farewell to Narduzzi The Enlightened Spartan: Three strikes against Baylor: Vegas, 2014 margin of victory, and History. Farewell to Narduzzi

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Three strikes against Baylor: Vegas, 2014 margin of victory, and History. Farewell to Narduzzi

Three strikes and you're out.  Here are three strikes against the Baylor Bears in the 2015 Cotton Bowl vs Michigan State :

#1: Vegas. The Texas-sized home advantage has pushed Baylor to roughly a FG advantage over MSU.  That's PERFECT, bring it on.  The Spartans have proven their superiority as an underdog in three of the past four years: in particular, MSU has covered its past three bowl games and is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games as an underdog.

#2: 2014 Margin of Victory. Baylor scores in buckets (so do the Spartans)... but since October, their margin of victory has really nose-dived.  The Bears also give up a TON of points. Against "real" competition (BCS foes), Baylor has surrendered 27 points or more in six of nine games, including their last three.  However, they are also like Oregon - basketball on grass - and have scored 30 points or more in seven of nine "real" BCS games.  What is interesting is their margin of victory.  When you compare the average margin of victory over the season, MSU and Baylor are now virtually dead-even, with a 23 ppg adv for MSU, and a 25 ppt adv for Baylor... but when you use a simple linear regression to model the average margin of victory... the Spartans have now inched past Baylor in their probable average margin of victory.  Why? MSU's level of competition has been more even over the season, and their margin of victory has actually been greater than that of Baylor in the last month.

#3: What do we know about Baylor?  It's not the most storied history - we Spartans are morose, and lament our many mediocre periods... but our flashes of brilliance have been far greater than those of Baylor.  Mediocrity and challenge have a far warmer home in Waco, TX, than they do in East Lansing.  Baylor has really only had two mega-famous football players:  Mike Singletary (the All-Pro, and NFL Hall of Fame LB), and recent Hiesman-winner Robert Griffin III (though 22 of them are currently in pro football).

The Baylor Bears have played in 20 previous bowl games, with a 10-10 record, but only five games in MAJOR bowls: the Orange in 1953, the Sugar in 1957, the Cotton in 1975 and 1981, and the Fiesta last year.  The 13-7 win over Tennessee in the 1957 Sugar Bowl is the only major bowl victory in Baylor history.

Baylor has won two of their last four bowl games under the current coach, Art Briles. Baylor lost to Illinois in the 2010 Texas Bowl and were upset by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last year; they defeated Washington in the Alamo Bowl and UCLA in the Holiday Bowl in 2011 and 2012.    Under Briles, they are 55-33, a 62.5% winning advantage which is significant compared to their history.  Baylor's historical record is 560-546-44, which is a 50.7% win percentage dating back to 1898 (MSU is 668-439-44, a 59.9% dating to 1896).

OTHER NEWS:  About Narduzzi to Pitt

Congrats to Pat Narduzzi, our Defensive Guru, for snagging the gig at the University of Pittsburgh.  He's deserved it, and hopefully he won't find it the graveyard of coaches that so many others have.  NARDUZZI WILL COACH THE MSU DEFENSE IN OUR BOWL GAME VS BAYLOR.

The ES wish list: Don't show up on the BTN Afterthought show with the Wannstashe...  Instead, Coach Narduzzi, please turn Pitt into an ACC contender (you can't turn them into a champ, it's impossible), but return to EL in 8 years when the Doctor retires... Stay tuned... :)

No comments:

Post a Comment