Big Ten Week 1 vs Week 2: Expectations vis a vis Sagarin

OK, let’s talk a bit more at length about the Big Ten’s “underperformance” in Week 1, despite compiling a 10-1 record. As is the case early in the season, the ES uses Sagarin’s rating system to look at football teams, largely because it is the only measure that incorporates both FBS/1A and FCS/1AA teams, and it is included in the BCS rankings.

I listed these games in order of largest difference from Big Ten to Big Ten opponent, coming up with a “Favorite Ranking” for each game. A + indicates favorite, a - indicates underdog. Then, in bold and red are the games that are the most surprising, based on the Favorite Ranking. If you consider Sagarin, the Missouri thumping of Illinois and the scUM thumping of WMU were to be expected. However, five results give credence to a Big Ten “underperformance” in week one, highlighted in BOLD RED.

Week 1. Sagarin Rank & Opponent. Favorite Ranking. Result.

#174 Towson at #61 N’western. +113. WIN, 47-14 (+33)
#148 Montana St at #44 MSU. +104. WIN, 44-3 (+41).
#111 Akron at #8 JoePa. +93. WIN, 31-7 (+24).
#163 Eastern Ky at #95 Indiana. +68. WIN, 19-13 (+6).
#99 Northern Illinois at #33 Wisconsin. +66. WIN, 28-21 (+7).
#113 Toldeo at #57 Purdue. +56. WIN, 52-31 (+21).
#83 Northern Iowa at #27 Iowa. +56 WIN, 17-16 (+1).
#59 Navy at #5 Ohio State. +54. WIN, 31-27 (+4).
#88 WMU at #35 scUM. +53. WIN, 31-7 (+24).
#97 at Syracuse vs #69 Minnesota. +28. WIN, 23-20 (+3).
#18 Missouri at #63 Illinois. –55. LOSS, 37-9 (-28).

If you look to week 2, when ALL teams theoretically make their biggest improvement, a few games Big Ten fans should keep their eye on (in RED BOLD). The Ohio State vs USC game should be close, as should ND-scUM and Air Force-Minny. According to Sagarin, WMU should beat Indiana, and Oregon should whip Purdue. But, the ES figures the struggles by Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State in week 1 may lead to losses (or big losses) in week 2… and, a poor performance by WMU in week 1 gives hope to Indiana in week 2.

Week 2. Sagarin Rank & Opponent. Favorite Ranking.

#183 Illinois State at #65 Illinois. +118.
#162 EMU at #71 Northwestern +91.
#104 Syracuse at #14 JoePa. +90.
#78 at Iowa State vs #36 Iowa. +42.
#84 CMU at #43 MSU. +41.
#67 Fresno State at #37 Wisconsin. +30.
#35 Notre Dame at #30 scUM. +5.
#61 Air Force at #63 Minnesota. –2.
#1 Southern Cal at #4 Ohio St.. –3.
#89 WMU at #106 Indiana. –17.
#18 at Oregon vs #57 Purdue. –39.

MSU #27 in AP Poll; #26 in USA Today Poll

The newest AP college football poll is out for week 2, delayed by a day because of the Miami-FSU game last night. As would be expected, Florida State dropped out and Miami popped in at #20. Iowa's survival over FCS/1-AA Northern Iowa led to its being dismissed, and Missouri entered at #25 after smashing Illinois, 37-9. Oregon's humiliation to Boise State allowed Cincinnati to enter at #23 after its 47-15 embarrassment of Rutgers. The biggest riser? BYU of course, up 11 spots from #20 to #9; its 14-13 defeat of Oklahoma also provided the Sooners as the biggest drop, down 10 spots from #3 to #13.

Our Spartans moved up a tad to #27, not impressing the pollsters with its 44-3 dumping of Montana State.

RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Florida (56)	1-0	1493
2	Texas (2)	1-0	1424
3	USC	1-0	1355
4	Alabama (2)	1-0	1331
5	Oklahoma State	1-0	1201
6	Mississippi	1-0	1095
7	Penn State	1-0	1082
8	Ohio State	1-0	985
9	Brigham Young	1-0	984
10	California	1-0	971
11	LSU	1-0	890
12	Boise State	1-0	882
13	Oklahoma	0-1	782
14	Virginia Tech	0-1	652
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	630
16	TCU	0-0	523
17	Utah	1-0	404
18	Notre Dame	1-0	383
19	North Carolina	1-0	338
20	Miami (FL)	1-0	315
21	Georgia	0-1	294
22	Nebraska	1-0	266
23	Cincinnati	1-0	248
24	Kansas	1-0	196
25	Missouri	1-0	126

Dropped from rankings: Oregon 16, Florida State 18, Iowa 22
Others receiving votes: Oregon State 113, Michigan State 83, Pittsburgh 82, Texas Tech 53, Oregon 47, Clemson 40, Florida State 39, West Virginia 32, Tennessee 30, Iowa 24, Michigan 18, UCLA 18, Baylor 17, Boston College 14, Arizona 12, East Carolina 6, Air Force 4, Auburn 4, Colorado State 4, Arkansas 3, South Carolina 3, South Florida 1, Southern Miss 1, Houston 1, Tulsa 1

Over at the USA Today coaches poll, they've listed Michigan State at #26 and had similar movement in the polls...

1.	Florida (56)	1-0	1,472	1
2.	Texas (2)	1-0	1,407	2
3.	Southern California (1)	1-0	1,352	4
4.	Alabama	1-0	1,299	5
5.	Penn State	1-0	1,145	8
6.	Oklahoma State	1-0	1,114	11
7.	Ohio State	1-0	1,106	6
8.	Mississippi	1-0	1,006	10
9.	LSU	1-0	977	9
10.	California	1-0	935	12
11.	Boise State	1-0	803	16
12.	Brigham Young	1-0	755	24
13.	Georgia Tech	1-0	685	15
14.	Oklahoma	0-1	682	3
15.	Virginia Tech	0-1	633	7
16.	TCU	0-0	543	17
17.	Utah	1-0	503	18
18.	Nebraska	1-0	360	22
19.	North Carolina	1-0	358	20
20.	Notre Dame	1-0	335	23
21.	Georgia	0-1	304	13
22.	Miami (Fla.)	1-0	276	NR
23.	Cincinnati	1-0	187	NR
24.	Oregon State	1-0	169	25
25.	Kansas	1-0	139	NR
Dropped out
No. 14 Oregon (0-1, lost to then-No. 16 Boise State 19-8), No. 19 Florida State (0-1, lost to then-unranked Miami, Fla., 38-34), No. 21 Iowa (1-0, beat Northern Iowa 17-16).
Others receiving votes
Michigan State 133; Missouri 97; Iowa 70; Florida State 62; Texas Tech 53; Oregon 50; Pittsburgh 26; Clemson 24; South Carolina 23; Tennessee 21; Auburn 13; West Virginia 13; South Florida 12; Kentucky 8; Arizona 5; Michigan 4; Northwestern 4; Boston College 3; Arkansas 2; Baylor 2; UCLA 2; Colorado State 1; Minnesota 1; Tulsa 1.