#11/11 Michigan State Spartans (10-1, 7-0) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-3, 4-3)
Minny off vs Spartan def:  Minnesota's offense has quietly performed very well on the ground, with David Cobb running for more than 1,000 yards so far; but, his most recent peformance of 17 carries for 68 yards vs Wisconsin in more likely to be similar to what he will expect at Michigan State and the nations' best rush defense giving up just 59.4 yards per game.  Minnesota will likely be forced into a pass game, which is already ranked just #116 in the nation at 154 yards per game.

QB Phillip Nelson has a 9 TD vs 4 INT ratio, and completing 53% of his passes.   The Spartans are giving up just 177 yards per game, ranked #9 in the nation.  The Big Green has the best secondary in the land with Darqueze Dennard (4 INT, 7 PBUs), Kurtis Drummond (4 INTs, 5 PBUs), Trae Waynes (5 PBUs).  To boot, the Spartans' sport a nice pass rush with Denicos Allen, Shalique Calhoun, and Marcus Rush adding to 25 sacks.

Spartan off vs Minny def: The Gopher defense is giving up a reasonable 376 yards per game, ranked #46 in the nation. They are giving up 150 yards on the ground per game, and another 220 through the air per game.  These are respectable against respectable opponents. But, Minnesota's defense doesn't seem to work well against tough, grinding teams like Michigan State, with tough defenses.  Let's look at a comparable opponent to Michigan State on the road - such as last week's Gopher stint at Wisconsin:

WIS	MINN
1st Downs	18	11
Total Yards	324	185
Passing	127	83
Rushing	197	102
Penalties	2-25	5-26
3rd Down Conversions	4-16	3-13
4th Down Conversions	1-2	1-3
Turnovers	1	3
Possession	35:11	24:49

 
Minny couldn't get over the hump; just 185 total yards, and just 82 through the air.  More importantly: three stats stand out.  3-13 third downs (23%), an 11-minute TOP advantage to Wisky, and a 3-1 turnover advantage to Wisky.  This means that Wisconsin controlled the game on both sides of the ball, including on offense.

To that end, I see a similar effort out of Michigan State and the Spartans' ability to run the ball with success. To add to Spartan RB Jeremy Langford's 1,000 yard season, Michigan State is surging with its pass game, averaging 199 yards per game, but coming off a career-best 293 yards out of QB Connor Cook in a frozen, windy tundra at Northwestern.  If anything, MSU has turned out to have the most balanced offense, with the least mistakes, of any in the Big Ten conference.  Give Spartan receivers credit for making big plays in recent weeks:

at Northwestern -  (rec, yds, TD, long)

Lippett, Tony           3   64    0   48
Price, Josiah           3   35    1   15
Fowler, Bennie          2   99    1   87

at Nebraska -

Lippett, Tony           4   67    0   34
Kings, M.               3   37    0   17
Fowler, Bennie          2   29    0   16
Mumphery, Keith         1   27    1   27

vs Michigan -

Fowler, Bennie          6   75    1   25
Lippett, Tony           5   62    0   21
Kings, M.               2   14    0   10

History: Since the Doctor showed up, the Spartans have handled the Gophers pretty well. MD has a 3-1 record, including the last three: 31-8 and 31-24 wins at home, and a 26-10 win in Minneapolis last year. The ES hates most of the teams in the Big Ten, but it is tough to dislike the ultimate underdog, of which the Gophers rank near the top because of their disgusting play on the gridiron for most of the last 70 years.  The ES is really rooting for Jerry Kill and his staff; Kill's continued seizures, and how his staff has overcome the situation has been truly inspirational. Further, coaching way the hell up where Bud Grant used to coach, and in an outdoor stadium, is an endorsement of the thick-skinned nature of football.

Final:  ES sez, it is senior day, and watch Max Bullough go out playing ape-shit.  Michigan State 22, Minnesota 0.