ES Game Day: What a long strange trip for Warshington

Time to make Penix crosseyed with our stout Spartan secondary

Michigan State Spartans (2-0) host #8 Warshington Huskies (2-0)
September 16, 2023. 5 pm ET.
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

Weather: PERFECT.  73 and sunny, no freaking winds
TV: Peacock Network - yes it is only available via streaming

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #41, UW #15. 
Line Outta Vegas:  Warshington by 16

It's been another bad week in East Lansing.  Again. 

But, listen.  The players don't deserve it, neither does coach Harlan Barnett, nor the entire MSU community.  One bad apple (Mel Tucker) spoils the bunch. The Spartan Nation needs to rally around the flag and support our young men on the gridiron.  Coach B was a STUD as an All-American DB during his tenure under George Perles at MSU; he bleeds green; and, he's a good guy.  Damn, I am rooting the hell out of myself for Coach B to get a notch under his belt and give him a chance for the job.  We deserve it. 

Travel across the country to play a football game is not conducive to the visiting team.  MSU was whipped last year at Washington.  Time to return the favor.  A decade ago, MSU was whipped by Oregon in Eugene, and returned the favor defeating Oregon in East Lansing.  The same thing happened with Oregon a decade before that.  And, it happened with Southern Cal a decade before Oregon. 

What the ES is saying is the travel itself may be worth 7-10 points in MSU's favor.  Seriously.  

Let's look at the matchup real quick, with UW playing marginally better competition than MSU to date.

MSU:  45-14 over FCS Richmond; 31-7 over MAC Central Michigan
UW: 56-19 over MtnWest Boise State; 43-10 over CUSA Tulsa

Penix has thrown for over 400 yards in each of his games so far this year, thrusting him squarely in the Heisman race.  He torched MSU for 400 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs last year. The ES was at the game in Seattle, and regardless of a pair of MSU goal line stands, it wasn't enough to stop the Huskies. 

	UW	MSU
Total Yards	565.5	435.5
Yards Passing	472.0	291.0
Yards Rushing	93.5	144.5
Yards Allowed	360.0	206.0
Pass Yards Allowed	207.0	107.0
Rush Yards Allowed	153.0	99.0

On offense, MSU has a more balanced attack, running for 50 more yards a game than Washington - who throws for 160 more yards a game than MSU.  

The Spartan defense seems to be the teams' strength, giving up 160 yards less per game than UW.  Despite the weak competition for both squads, that is a significant statistical advantage for the Spartans.   For MSU,  particularly the secondary -- has got to stay tight with its coverage today and put a shadow on the swift Penix.  That's the key to the game.  MSU must pressure Penix and make him uncomfortable, and Barnett's defensive backfield must not give up too many big plays.  If MSU can control the line of scrimmage up front on offense and take some time off the clock, it can limit how much the ball is in Penix's hands.  Our punter seems pretty good so far this year, and we can use a time or two to kick deep balls and flip the field when we're in our three-and-outs.  But, when Penix has it, MSU has got to make life uncomfortable for him.  Otherwise, the Spartans will be sliced and diced all game long.

I can see a turnover or two from the secondary (or a sack/fumble combo) being an outcome of a solid defensive effort. Add in the 7-10 point advantage from travel, the burn from the unfortunate events this week, and this game should be much closer than the bookies in Vegas have it.  As far as a W...  I'm not sure it will be enough.   This is a prove it or lose it moment for MSU and Coach B. 

Prognostications: 

Australian Paul:  MSU 44-0
Lansing Doc:  MSU 44-7
Pittsburgh Lee:  45-17 Bad Guys
Pittsburgh Cam, our recent MSU grad: UW 31-24

ES sez:  UW 31, MSU 22

Why 97.1 The Ticket Broadcasters are IDIOTS: Look at the data on football efficiency, not your beliefs!

People think with Mel Tucker's dismissal at Michigan State University that you can buy your way to victories in getting a new "high profile" football coach. 

There is not one study that backs up that theory. You state "Nick Saban, Lincoln Riley, Ryan Day" and I will state "Rick Neiuhesel, Dan Mullen, Mel Tucker, Charlie Weis, Rich Rodriguez." Football is a zero-sum game. For every winner you spend millions on, there are losers. 

97.1 The Ticket broadcasters are idiots who are bombastic and don't look at the data or reality; they instead buy into anecdotal KoolAid with no data to support their rants. 

It is a gamble to spend money on an activity where there is NO GUARANTEE. The results speak for themselves. Just ask Michigan State.

Here's the graphic and link to the study about who is and who is not most efficient in spending money to win football games.  

Post Tucker: line vs Washington moves more than a FG in Huskies favor

Since the suspension (and eventual firing) of Mel Tucker, the line outta Vegas for MSU vs Washington has moved significantly in the direction of the Huskies, going from -12.5 to -16. 

It's gonna take more than a Hail Mary to take out UW.

FIRE MEL TUCKER IMMEDIATELY

There is no reason to wait.  Mel Tucker should be fired, without pay, effective immediately.  Read the USA Today report.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2023/09/10/michigan-state-football-coach-sexual-harassment-claim/70679703007/

If you show up on Saturday vs Washington, you will be booed from the upper deck to the lower deck...  and there will be a massive protest for you to get the hell out of town.   Please respect MSU and leave us alone.  Don't make this happen.  Get out of town, you are a loser.  

SEXUAL HARASSMENT is unacceptable anywhere.  There is no good excuse acknowledging that it was consensual and ok that he "masturbated while on the phone" with the victim - already a victim of a previous rape at Baylor.  WHY DO IT IN THE FIRST PLACE?  Sending her gifts, texting/sexting to a sexual assault victim who you invited to campus to talk about the wrongs of sexual harassment?  What the hell are you thinking?  Keep your organ in your pants, and maybe take care of your marriage first?  

At Michigan State, we've been through the Larry Nassar scandal with hundreds of athletes sexually abused by a predator.  It led to the resignation of the Athletics Director, the President, several athletics staff and coaches, and ultimately several members of the Board of Trustees. I remember walking with Governor-to-be Gretchen Whitmer down Grand River to the MSU Administration building, clamoring for justice for all members of the MSU Board of Trustees to resign in support of the victims.  For the most part, the resignations followed.  I guess the message then wasn't loud enough for now?  

This was before Mel Tucker came to campus... but he should know better - regardless of MSU's history. 

We don't need a jack-off coach with no respect of women to ruin whatever has been left of MSU's self-tarnished reputation that we Spartans have been trying to rebuild over the past decade.  And, it is heartbreaking for MSU to once again have leaders demonstrate a lack of commitment to respect, dignity, and women as people 

There is no excuse.  None.  

Tuck, leave us alone - go away, take the $18 million you've already earned and go buy an island. Repair your marriage.  Just go away, we don't need your stain on MSU.  

Bye, bye, Tuck.  Tuck, Leavin'!   And, don't rape us for $72 million on your way out.  You are a disappointing individual who has broken the hearts of us Spartan fans.  

I have no respect for you.  

ES Game Day: Richmond Spiders crawling into EL

Michigan State Spartans (1-0) host Richmond Spiders (0-1)
September 9, 2023.  3:40 pm. 
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

TV: BTN
Weather:  73, sunny

Line outta Sagarin: (no line out of Vegas): MSU by 29
Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #40, Richmond #170

The ES has been to Richmond, Virginia, twice in his lifetime.  Once with Big Bob and his bro about 30  years ago, and the other flying into an interview with UVA.  Hmmm... as the ES recalls, it reminds very much of Lansing, a blue-collar town with rough edges to it and a smaller, OK airport. 

Looking at its history, Richmond has been fairly successful in FCS football.  Back in the 70s, it used to play WVU, Va Tech, and some other schools now in the Power 5 conferences... Richmond took a back seat and instead played in I-AA/FCS, and build a 8,500-seat stadium a few years back.... recently installed a new LED video board.  But, definitely a full step down from FBS.  

Richmond lost last week to fellow FCS member Morgan State, 17-10.  It amassed just 95 yards on the ground and was 3-for-12 on third downs.  It should run into a brick wall with the pretty decent Michigan State defensive front.  Richmond is breaking in a new QB, Kyle Wickersham, who was 23-30 for just 169 yards (about 5.5 yards per attempt), and led the team in rushing with 39 yards on 21 carries (less than 2.0 ypc).  Both numbers are not efficient.  

This is certainly a tune-up for the visit from #9 University of Washington next week, and all-American QB stud Michael Penix (who burned MSU at Indiana before he burned MSU last year at UW).  

Some requests out of the Spartoonies:

#1 - pray noone gets hurt
#2 - lets see more out of the OL and running game for the Spartans (200+ yards)
#3 - how about another long FG?
#4 - defense holds Richmond to under 200 total yards
#5 - QB Kim throws the ball downfield more, and less side-to-side B.S. that will only get him into trouble playing good competition

If there is anything the ES hates... it's spiders. 

ES sez: 

MSU 38, Richmond 7. 

Enlightened Spartan 2023 Preview

The ES doesn’t think he's entered into an MSU football season with as low expectations since the beginning of the decline of the Dantonio era.  Here are some of my thoughts, in a conversation with J (Clarkston, MI):

 

What is your over under for wins for MSU this year?

 

Haven't figured it out yet.  Outta Vegas is 5.5.  Initially, thinking 6-6...  Problem is we don't have a QB.  All depends really if the OL can stand up this year.  If they can't .... it's gonna be a long year.

 

Not as worried about the defense.  They're stout up front, ok at LB, and their secondary can't be any worse.

 

We have a new kicker and punter.  That could be a problem as well.  If we can’t punt ourselves out of trouble, it can also be a long year.  Worried about the punting, in all honesty. If it were up to me, the ES would take a page out ot Dan Campbell's book and go for fourth down all the time.

 

Jesus, look at our kicker: Jonathan Kim. Transfer out of UNC.  Dunno.  And look at our punter.  He looks like he is about 10 years old.  Urgh.  https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/player/ryan-eckley/152803

 

Just not enough experience at QB or at special teams.  That's a concern late in games, if our defense can keep us in it against tough competition.  I hope I'm wrong and Tuck coaches up.

 

Here’s the ES prediction (6-6 overall). 

 

W - Sep. 1.  MSU vs CMU.  7 pm/FS1.  MSU 21, CMU 17.

W - Sep. 9.  MSU vs Richmond.  3:30 pm/BTN.  MSU 42, Richmond 7.

L - Sep. 16.  MSU vs Washington.  5 pm/Peacock.  UW 31, MSU 21.

W - Sep. 23.  MSU vs Maryland.  3:30 pm.  MSU 28, Maryland 24.

L - Sep. 30.  MSU at Iowa.  TBA.  Iowa 24, MSU 14.

W - Oct. 14 .  MSU at Rutgers. 12 noon.  MSU 24, Rutgers 23.

L – Oct. 21.  MSU vs Michigan. TBA.  Michigan 35, MSU 14. 

W – Oct. 28.  MSU at Minnesota.  TBA.  MSU 24, Minnesota 21.

W – Nov 4.  MSU vs Nebraska. TBA.  MSU 21, Nebraska 20.

L – Nov 11.  MSU at Ohio State.  7:30/NBC.  Ohio St 49, MSU 21.

L – Nov 18.  MSU at Indiana. TBA.  Indiana 27, MSU 24.

L – Nov 24. MSU vs Penn St (Detroit). 7:30/NBC.  Penn St 38, MSU 20.

 

 

Other prognosticators for the season:

 

Sloth (Pittsburgh, PA): 

 

Payton Thorne will pass his way into the NFL draft down at Auburn, while MSU plays musical chairs at QB and pretty much every other position. Season starts with a crushing loss at home to the Chips, and ends with humiliation against PSU at Ford Field. Tucker is fired midseason following a 63-0 loss at home to UM and replaced with Scottie Hazelton as interim coach, who decides to improve his defense by having the offensive starters play both ways, with old leather helmets and wearing MSC rugby shirts. Oddly enough, this strategy works for one additional win against Indiana at home. Spartans finish not enough and too many. Tucker is a fucking moron at this point, and not firing Hazelton last season is just Exhibit ZZ.

 

Big Bob (Kalamazoo):

 

After wildly inconsistent seasons to start his tenure, coach T will bring some much needed consistency in 2023 by matching last year’s 5-7 record. At nearly $2 million per win, this ROI will please the investors.  The biggest upset victory will be a one point OT road win at Indiana. This will come one week after the season’s biggest loss, at Ohio State, by seven TDs.  The Spartans will finish second from last in the Big Ten East and we will all look forward to the MSU hoops season.  Praying I’m wrong but I’ve seen this movie before and I don’t like the ending.

 

Australian Paul:

 

Undefeated.

Will be pronounced the greatest team to ever wear shoes.

You're welcome

 

Doc (Lansing, MI):

 

Tuck came

Tuck saw

Tuck conquered

So good, even the 4th stringers will be NILlionaires. The 1st stringers will exhaust their eligibility before they get drafted & take a pay cut with their NFL contracts.

So good, the MSU Ice Cream Shop will be renamed in their honor.

Legend Dairy.

So good, the unofficial conference nickname will be The Big One and Little Seventeen.

So good, Vegas will refuse to publish a line on all Spartan games.

So good, Spartan games will be on Monday Night.

 

Uncle Denny (Florida):  5-7.  

 

Cat (Lansing, MI):  6-6. 

Tuck on the Clock: Change contract to pay Tucker $1 million per win

Spartan fans... I've had about enough in this football off-season.  It's not pretty. 

The clock is ticking, coach Tuck.  How about we make a deal for $1M per win?

QB & WR?  Thorne and Coleman.  Gone. 

Recruiting? 3 recruits... "3-star" and a #49 recruiting class.

Recent History? 5-7 season.  OT loss to Indiana.  What have you done for me lately?

2023 Preseason Hype?  Athlon put MSU #9 in the BigTen (14)... before the departure of Thorne and Coleman.  

"I'm a horesshit coach right now."  Didn't get any better. 

Street cred?  Now, his street cred has crumbled to #47 among active coaches.

What the hell is going on?

This off-season is reminiscent of John L Smith's latter years, following half-time pep-down speeches, 4th quarter collapses, poor execution at critical times, and compiling injuries.  Difference is: coach Tucker is being paid $9.5 million a year to make MSU a winner.  For 10 years.  How do you think $95 million could help the Lansing School District????  In hindsight, it would be a better use of money. 

The verdict to date:  3 out of 4 losing seasons. 5-7 (Colorado), 2-5 (at MSU, COVID), 11-2, 5-7.  The worst part, when a bowl game was on the line, at home, was the complete collapse against Indiana.
  

Let's discuss the Indiana game, from my seat... The ES was at Circa Sportsbook with a simple parlay: easy W vs Indiana (football), and a more challenging matchup with a W vs Villanova (mens basketball).   The bookie at Vegas actually had just moved from Lansing, MI, two weeks prior, and worked for 10+ years for Terry Hanks at Sundance Chevrolet.  Yeah, that Terry... horses, cheap cars, and his other reported shenanigans.  

Izzo succeded, though the team fought back a tough last-minute challenge against 'Nova.  But, the next morning, the ES headed to Circa to cash in his ticket because we were going to mop up Indiana.  It was amazing to see the huge crowd (SRO) at Circa, with about fifty 45" tvs playing different football games.  And, there was MSU, rolling over Indiana.  An MSU crowd (dwarfed by everyone rooting for Illinois to beat a slugging Michigan squad [UM won]) cheered on for 3 quarters...  until the inevitable.  Running down the clock, then rolling out that backup FG kicker in terrible weather, from the 3 yard line, a guy who has proven he can only kick straight. Miss, Indiana with the momentum rolls to an OT win.  The definition of ugly.  

I kept that damn ticket.  Gonna hang it on the wall, watch as Tucker either flies or crashes and burns.

The plane Coach Tuck is flying doesn't have history on its side.  Sure he dresses great.  Honestly, I, don't care if he shows up in overalls or in pajamas, a few more Ws are in order.  Since at MSU, Mr. T is 18-14 over three years... he has been paid $28.5 million for 18 wins and one bowl appearance. It would be simple to say he should be paid, instead, $1 million per win.  MSU would have saved $10.5 million over the last three years.   

Here's the schedule for this upcoming year, with very early projections from the ES. 

Sep 1, Cenral Michigan.  Win.
Sep 9, Richmond.  Win.  
Sep 19, Washington. Loss. 
Sep 23, Maryland.  Win.
Sep 30, @ Iowa. Loss. 
Oct 7, BYE (-). 
Oct 14, @ Rutgers. Win.
Oct 21, Michigan. Loss.
Oct 28, @ Minnesota. Loss.
Nov 4, Nebraska.  Loss (or Win).
Nov 11, @Ohio State. Loss.
Nov 18, @ Indiana.  Win (or Loss).
Nov 25, Penn State.  Loss. 

That's a 6-6 or 5-7 year Spartan fans.  At $1 million a year, MSU could save $3.5 - $4.5 million if this happened in 2023.  Let's create a different incentive and make coach Tuck work better for wins. Hell, at $1 million a pop, I'd take 9 or 10 wins this fall, wouldn't you?