Michigan State Spartans (2-0) host Prairie View A&M Panthers (1-1) September 14, 2024. 3:30 pm. Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI TV: BTN
Weather: hot, 85 and sunny, no wind. Sagarin Ratings: MSU #74, Prairie View #234 Line Outta Vegas (via LSJ): MSU by 41 points with an O/U of 10-1/2. So, the prediction would be MSU to win by at least 40-10.
Who is the most famous Prairie View alumni? I googled it, and remember Ken Houston, who played both for the Houston Oilers and (as I remember watching him) for the Washington Redskins. He was one of the first lock-down corners as I remember, and he dominated the NFL for about a decade years (named to the Pro Bowl 12 times).
Here's Kenny Houston, tackling Walter Payton. PVAM don't have him today.
Not much about this game. It's a B1G vs a HBCU in FCS. The Big Green Touchdown Machine was originally scheduled to play Louisiana-Lafayette, but replaced it with PVAM for $500,000. The Spartans better win.
MSU's plan? Just stay healthy. MSU travels to Boston College (#58 in Sagarin) next week, and BC really is an unknown, other than they can run the ball like crazy and beat a terrible Florida State team in Tallahassee. So, stay healthy, win, and move on. Maybe Adian Chiles can work on his footwork and we can just run the ball. Lots of Gatorade in the heat today.
Prognostications:
Big Bob: MSU 34-17 Pontiac Keith: MSU 42-6 Uncle Denny: MSU 42-17 Australian Paul: 38-0
MSU. After the game, the opposing coach is found in the bathroom,
curled up in the foetal position singing "you make me feel like a
natural woman" Doc: Win, but look like crap at times. Growing pains. MSU 31-16
With MSU’s dramatic win over Maryland 27-24 (the ES predicted MSU would win 26-24), combined with the gutting of scUM by Texas, 31-12, and the disaster by the Right Wing Irish to lowly Northern Illinois at home 16-14… WE HIT THE TRIFECTA!!!
This is rare, for MSU to win on the same weekend that Michigan and Notre Dame lose. It’s a great feeling. I hate those two football teams more than any other in college football, because they’ve had enough time winning. Share the wealth. The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.
From 2015-2024, the Trifecta ooccured 4 times, including today (Sep 7, 2024). (4 times over 120 weekends = 3.3% frequency).
From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
Seven times in the past 57 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009 and the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 57 years.
Below is a list of the few Trifectas since 2014, and you can link to a previous post from the ES back in 2014 which outlined all of this data back into ancient history.
About the Sagarin Ratings. Why the hell does the ES use this? Many reasons. First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99. So - there is some smarmy connection there. Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS). As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).
So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her. So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.
So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285
Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas. I hope she’s wrong.
The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland. The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium. Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke. The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game. So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans. It was weird. As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster. All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town.
Hopefully, we can return the favor to beat the former Chancellor's school today...
In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan. We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years. He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.” He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.” He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better. But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss.
That’s some of my Maryland experiences.
How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?” I dunno. What do you think?
Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season. I am leaning toward the former.
I have all 32 teeth. Let's see how many remain after this Spartan fall.
I am not going to Spartan Stadium on Saturday's this fall for tooth extractions. I won't do it.
It was disappointing.Too many mistakes everywhere by Michigan State, especially playing against a sub-par opponent in Florida Atlantic.We’re 1-0, but here are some of my thoughts.
About last night’s game. It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out MSU is in trouble on the offensive line. Three yards and a cloud of dust?" We fed the ball to Carter 19 times for 2.5 yards a carry. That sucks. And, many of the plays were telegraphed. I'm sitting up in Section 121 with Sloth, the God Deieter, and the rest of the section, yelling "My God, stop running it up the middle!!!! It doesn't work!" Unfortunately, the coaches didn't listen and kept at it, with little result to show. Funny how I got cheers from the crowd: the thought being if we struggle to beat FAU, what the hell is gonna happen when Ohio State comes to town? Michigan State has lots of problems on the offensive interior. The offensive line could use my dead grandma to open up some holes.Everything between the tackles was inconsistent and for the most part unproductive.Let’s look.
MSU had 179 yards on the ground: that’s pretty good, but what is the problem is looking at efficiency:
Though MSU averaged 4.8 yards per carry, the issue is that 63 was on one TD run by Lynch-Adams (who should clearly be the starter).Those are real yards and they count; if this is a consistent trend, I would pleasure it and sell the barn. But the problem is the rest of the game, and when you take out the run, MSU was 36 rushes for just 116 yards or a 3.2 average.That’s not good.
If you were at the game, as was I, the game was not fun to watch. Fairly boring, mistakes, poor tackling, and bad blocking.But what became apparent as the game wore on, was the ineffectiveness of the interior offensive line of MSU. It seemed like much of the time, QB Aidan Chiles was running for his life.That’s not a good sign.
Speaking of Chiles, he missed many wide-open throws, a wide-open TD opportunity that went three rows into the seats, and threw a very bad INT in what should have been a pix-6 as State was driving deep in FAU territory: we were gonna score, and my g-friend and I expected as much, to go up 23-3 and head for the exits.But, then the stupid throw by Chiles.It wasn’t good.Watch it on replay.He only completed 10 passes on 25 attempts, with 2 interceptions. According to MSU, that's a terrible 62.9 QB rating for Chiles (FAU's QB had an 84.2 rating, and that's accurate as he was the better QB in this game).
Look at this photo:
This is what you teach QBs NOT TO DO. Throw off your back foot falling back and making your shoulder do all the work. Hey, Chiles, your 18 years old, dude. Step into your throws and stop thinking your talent is going to bail you out. This is a big problem. He needs much more coaching on his decision-making. He did not throw well.
However, it wasn't all his fault. WR Montorie Foster dropped two passes, ran poor routes, and fumbled. He did not play well. He should not be the top option for Chiles, because he is unreliable. It's unfortunate, but the proof is in the play and not the potential. We need him to play better.
We also learned that RB Nate Carter was busy eating too many Cheetos and Pizza Hut this summer. 19 carries for 52 yards, mostly up the middle into madness, that's a whopping 2.5 yards per carry. Carter was completely useless in this game; and, while some of it was poor interior blocking and poor play calling, he had several opportunities to bounce outside.Instead, Carter just plowed into the middle like Jehuu Caulcrik or Earl Campbell, but with less mass and brains, making Carter just fall down. You can't just plow into the middle when everyone expects it and have Carter get the yards; it's like running into a brick wall; many times, poor ingenuity and poor execution. It reminded me of the John L Smith years, constantly underperforming and making mistakes. Luckily, we have an effective back in Lynch-Adams, and both his dashiness and his speed were clearly on display. He was the player of the game.
On defense, they were asked to do more than they should have.They held up pretty well, giving up just 248 total yards despite all the gifts from the MSU offense. And, they managed SEVEN sacks on a very mobile FAU quarterback.The talent difference really showed on the defensive front.MSU should be very tough here this season. I was pretty surprised about the play of #7 Jordan Turner and #8 Anthony Jones. They were all over the place and tackled well - it's a big positive for this team. They played well, and bailed out the offense on several occasions.
Bottom line, I really really REALLY do not want a season AGAIN where the defense is bailing out the offense.It makes for ugly wins, gutwrenching games, making things harder than they should be, and just making you want to crap your pants every week.It’s a lot more fun to watch the Detroit Lions than the MSU Spartans.Maybe Jonathan should call Dan Campbell?Hmmmm…..
MSU must beat Maryland next week.It will not be easy. There are a lot problems that must get fixed. And, it all starts with that interior offensive line.Tell Foster to catch the damn ball.And tell Aidan to chill and make better decisions.All of them have gotta play better.
Is this the official song for Michigan State this year? "Gouge Away"?...we can use a biblical performance by the Spartans this fall.
Well, Spartan fans. Here we are. 2024, bring it on. The one thing we can all agree on: we can only go UP. This is the 24th year the ES has published a Michigan State preview. I'm getting old.
It's interesting bringing in a new coach for the umpteenth time in my life (Daugherty, Stoltz, Muddy Waters, Perles, $aban, Williams, John L Smith, Dantonio, Tucker, now John A. Smith). I'm hopeful, and as the ES first predicted on October 6 of last year, Smith would leave his alma mater for greener pastures here in East Lansing. He's the right guy with recruiting/embracing NIL, tough running game, dynamic QB play, and a rugged defense. It fits the "tough guy" image of Michigan State that we can only hope pays off. At $7 million a year, we hope it pays off.
I'm very keen on watching the line play - on offense, we've plugged the holes with two transfer seniors (including Tanner Miller from Oregon State) joining returnee Brandon Baldwin, and two red-shirt sophomores. What's the improvement? From the weight room? Or is it better scheming? Or just talent? Our pass defense has been atrocious the past five years, in part because of poor ability to get to the quarterback putting sub-standard DBs on islands and getting burned time and again.
On defense, we have four transfers (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech). Reminds me a bit back in the day when John "Loser" Smith would plug the losses with transfers on the way to 7-5 seasons. We can do better, and watch #7 Jordan Turner, a senior out of Wisconsin playing linebacker. He should be damn good.
The bonus seems we have a good kicking game (the way it used to be pre-Mel), with Eckley at punter and Jonathan Kim at FGs. That should help the defense out. But the offense needs to move the ball to do its part. To that end, Aidan Chiles is an X-factor who has speed to burn and is a spot-on high level recruit who also transferred from Oregon State. He's lucky he gets to hand the ball off to Nate Carter, who was easily Michigan State's best RB last year. Fast, swifty, and with a punch: he reminds me of LJ Scott. We just need the boys up front to keep the enemy at bay and open them holes.
The first game against Florida Atlantic should be an interesting test. Below, we have some prognostications for the season; there will be another brief post with a preview of FAU shortly. But, this is what the pundits say about MSU this year:
1. What will be the MSU final record in 2024?
2. Will MSU go to a bowl game, and which one?
3. On a scale of 1-5 (1= bad, 5 = good), how do you think new QB Aidian Chiles will perform while making $1 Million in NIL money for the Spartans?
4. What will be the biggest win for MSU?
5. What will be the worst loss for MSU?
6. Are you going to an MSU away game? Which one and why?
7. Which musical act or song will best represent MSU football this year?
Aug. 30: Florida Atlantic. W. 37-17. Sep. 7. at Maryland. L. 20-24. Sep 14. Prairie View A&M. W. 48-10. Sep. 21. at Boston College. W. 31-20. Sep. 28. Ohio State. L. 10-42. Oct. 4. at Oregon. L. 17-45.
Oct. 11. BYE Oct. 19. Iowa. W. 8-4. Oct. 26. at Michigan. L. 16-35. Nov. 2. Indiana. W. 32-27.
Nov. 9. BYE Nov. 16. at Illinois. L. 20-26. Nov. 22. Purdue. W. 35-14. Nov. 30. Rutgers. W. 27-21.
ENJOY THE SEASON! GO BIG GREEN TOUCHDOWN MACHINE!!!
