Phil Steele loves Green defense as the Dark Horse in the B1G for 2013

Phil Steele hones in on the close losses and the stout defense to give MSU the official underdog status of the 2013 season.

(FYI - Tom Deinhart at BTN.com chimes in on MSU with his impressions, and they are all spot on with the ES' so far on offense and defense.  Deinhart notes the great play from Bullough at RB, his senior brother at LB, and better results at WR).

When you read his unit projections, overall he predicts MSU as the #5 scoring defense and #3 overall defense in the nation (Behind Alabama and Florida State).  He likes the MSU schedule avoiding Wisc and Ohio State.  And, he figures the wide receiving corps can’t get any worse.  Interestingly, he predicts MSU coaching as third-best in the Big Ten, after Ohio State (Urban Meyer) and Northwestern (Pat Fitzgerald). 

Steele projects out best individual units every year.  Don’t think I have ever seen MSU defense ranked so high in so many categories:  Defensive Line (#35), Linebackers (#5), and Defensive Backs (#14). No mention on special teams, quarterbacks, running backs, or receivers – we earned that.  But, the O-Line has a #17 ranking.  So, we have a great line to block for… nobody????  Argh. 

Steele ranks MSU tied for first in the Legends (with Nebraska and Michigan), and his preseason rankings post MSU at #23 overall (one spot ahead of Michigan at #24). Other Big Ten teams in his preseason are: Ohio State (2), Nebraska (16), Wisonsin (20), Northwestern (32), and Penn State (34).

USA TODAY POLL

MSU is on the outside looking in at #28 ranking the national coaches' poll... PERFECT.  And, looking at the USAT poll below finds really only three surprises:  Boise State at #19, UCLA at #21, and Northwestern at #22.  We beat Boise last year in East Lansing, and they return all their starters, but they weren't THAT good.  Northwestern should be VERY GOOD this year, they beat us in East Lansing because of terrible coaching and the worst game of Maxwell's career, but just seeing them in the preseason top 25 at any time is a surprise.  UCLA, just don't know much about them.

Quick thoughts: Oklahoma State is better than #14 but needs to prove it; Stanford is  not as good as #4; Notre Dame at #11 - the Irish were lucky all over 2012 and got due payment playing ' Bama, and they won't have such luxury this year, especially after the Spartans win in South Bend in September.  Michigan at #17 is overrated, much like Notre Dame - they have a better QB and a good coach, but have a tough schedule, plus the Spartans in East Lansing.

USA Today Poll
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Alabama (58)	0-0	1545
2	Ohio State (3)	0-0	1427
3	Oregon	0-0	1397
4	Stanford	0-0	1262
5	Georgia	0-0	1250
6	Texas A&M (1)	0-0	1215
7	South Carolina	0-0	1136
8	Clemson	0-0	1047
9	Louisville	0-0	1010
10	Florida	0-0	930
11	Notre Dame	0-0	872
12	Florida State	0-0	844
13	LSU	0-0	797
14	Oklahoma State	0-0	726
15	Texas	0-0	622
16	Oklahoma	0-0	620
17	Michigan	0-0	589
18	Nebraska	0-0	426
19	Boise State	0-0	420
20	TCU	0-0	400
21	UCLA	0-0	202
22	Northwestern	0-0	186
23	Wisconsin	0-0	172
24	USC	0-0	165
25	Oregon State	0-0	135

Others receiving votes: Kansas State 113, Miami (FL) 101, Michigan State 89, Baylor 80, Virginia Tech 65, Fresno State 62, Arizona State 51, Ole Miss 32, Vanderbilt 29, Utah State 23, Brigham Young 20, North Carolina 19, Northern Illinois 19, Tulsa 9, San Jose State 8, Ohio 8, Arizona 5, Cincinnati 3, East Carolina 3, Mississippi State 3, Kent State 3, Washington 3, UCF 2, Tennessee 1, Toledo 1, Rutgers 1, Arkansas 1, Arkansas State 1

Phil Steele disappoints on #28 Michigan State

Reading Phil Steele's writeup of his #28 Michigan State Spartans was one of the more disappointing reads of the preseason previews; although he is accurate in his assessment by position, he uses a negative connotation about MSU, unlike his love of the scUM mystique.  Just starting with the cover -- a scUM player (Robinson), a Ohio $tate player (Williams), and a Nebraska player (Crick).... even though Steele picks MSU in a tie in the Legends Division with Nebraska. 

But, his analysis of the Spartans sez this by position, fairly accurate:

• QB: "Cousins should be one of the Big Ten's best"
• RB: "This is one of the deeper RB corps in the country"
• OL: "With a deeper overall unit MSU could top last year's production"
• DL: "This looks like the Spartans' deepest and most complete DL since at least '07"
• LB: "With the loss of the top 2, however, this unit will be down a few notches"
• DB: "This group is equal to last year in terms of experience and 6'2' Tony Lippet could be a big upgrade at CB if he stays on defense"
• ST:  "may drop a few notches"

Forecast:  "This year MSU has just 12 returning starters and play five road games vs. bowl teams. Despite that 7-1 mark in Big Ten play they were only +39.9 yards per game.  MSU also benefitted from three net close wins and had just 7 starters lost to injury.  This is probably the strongest team that Dantonio has fielded but the above factors make it tough to match last year's 11 wins."  He ranks Michigan State #28 overall, although he has them in a tie for first in the Legends Division... ????

ES:  My problem with the forecast is the framework provided by Steele is one of the glass being half empty instead of half full:  why is ypg, close wins, and lack of injuries seen as a negative?  This is Dantonio's style, to play tough on defense and give his teams a chance to make plays and win.  Spartan fans will (hopefully) see this year in and year out... and also celebrate the victories to match. 

Notably, in every other BCS conference where he picked a #1 team or a tie at #1 in a conference division, Steele ranked them in the Top 25 (except the Big Least with Pitt) :  SEC (Alabama #1, Georgia #9), ACC (#5 Virginia Tech, #10 Florida St), Pac-12 (#4 Oregon, #17 Southern Cal), Big East (#25 South Florida, #27 Pittsburgh), Big 12 (Oklahoma #2), Big Ten (#12 Nebraska, #15 Ohio St, #23 Wisconsin, #24 Penn St). 

Steele projects Michigan State to play Florida in the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day.  He has Cousins as his #6 QB, Baker as his #7 RB, Martin as his #51 WR, Cunningham as his #65 WR, Linthicum as #24 TE, Foreman as his #7 OG, Conroy as #16 PK, Worthy as #2 DT, Norman as #43 LB, Adams as #33 CB, Robinson as #17 FS, and Martin as #15 PR.  Never in my years reading Steele have I seen as many Spartans listed so highly. 

As units go, Steele has MSU QBs at #23, RBs at #6, DL at #25, ST at #6.  Steele blew it not including the Spartan WR corps or the DBs in his top 25 -- clearly they deserve a nod. 

Bottom line: the ES despises being lumped into the same category as Pittsburgh and not being given a nod for its talent... but, this just means that Dantonio has lots of work to do to give Michigan State the respect after so many years of underachieving.  That starts with 2011-12.