Showing posts with label @B1Gfootball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label @B1Gfootball. Show all posts

Saturday, October 19, 2024

ES Preview: Michigan State vs Ugly Chickens


Michigan State Spartans (3-3/1-2) host the Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2/2-1)

Oct 19, 2024.  7:30 ET.

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI.


Weather:  66, sunny. Gonna get down to 50 by end of game. 


Sagarin Ratings: Iowa #16, Big Green #77

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Line Outta Vegas: Ugly Chickens by 6.5


ES has been out of pocket for the past two weeks, visiting the Great Northwest to take care of his ma.  Now, back to EL and watching Indiana destroy Nebraska as he writes this.  What the hell is going on?  Hopefully, both Illinois and Michigan State can add to the pain to Big Ten champion contenders. 


Well, Big Green TD Machine has had a week off to figure out Iowa, which kicked the shit out of Washington last week, 40-10.  If MSU puts up 41 points tonight, that would be a miracle.  As I have stated to many and another, MSU needs to get a QB coach whose sole job is to teach Aidan Chiles how to chill and set his feet when he passes.  Luckily, the Spartans get all their receivers back in this game (Nick Marsh, Jaron Glover, and Antonio Gates), giving Aidan Chiles some significant targets to spell time from a struggling running game.


This game will be won in the trenches, particularly in two areas:  turnovers (how much has Aidan Chiles learned?) and between Iowa’s OL with a good rushing game and MSU’s fairly stout DL.  Upset in the making is the way the ES reads this…



Iowa

MSU

SOS rank

#20

#27

Pts PG

29.2

19.8

Pts Allowed PG

17.7

21

Rush Yds PG

222.8

120.2

Pass Yds PG

134.7

229.7

Rush Def PG

96.3

130.8

Pass Def PG

219.7

199

TO Margin

6

-6

3rd Dn Pct

45%

41%

3rd Dn Def Pct

35%

43%


Prognostications?


Big Bob:  MSU 27-24
Pontiac Keith: Iowa 30-10
J Man: Upset!!!!! Victory for MSU
Sloth: MSU 6, Chickenhawks 3

Cathy Sue: Whatever to who cares


ES:  MSU 17, Ugly Chickens 16

Saturday, September 07, 2024

ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Turtles


Welcome to College Park Maryland, aka Melvindale, Michigan

Michigan State Spartans (1-0) at Maryland Turtles (1-0)

SECU Stadium.  College Park, Maryland

September 7, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.


Weather: 73 and partly cloudy. 


Sagarin Ratings: Michigan State #80. Maryland #37.  

Line Outta Vegas: Maryland by around 9 points.  


About the Sagarin Ratings.  Why the hell does the ES use this?  Many reasons.  First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99.  So - there is some smarmy connection there.  Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS).  As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).  


So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her.  So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.  


So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285


Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas.  I hope she’s wrong. 


The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland.  The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium.  Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke.  The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game.  So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans.  It was weird.   As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster.  All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town. 



Hopefully, we can return the favor to beat the former Chancellor's school today...

In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan.  We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years.  He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.”  He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.”  He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better.  But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss. 


That’s some of my Maryland experiences.  


How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?”  I dunno.  What do you think?


Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season.  I am leaning toward the former.

Big Bob: MD 31-17

Aussie Paul:  MSU 44-0

Uncle Denny: MSU 31-28

PB Skooz: 34-21 Good Guys
Lansing Doc:  MSU 23-19

Pontiac Keith: Maryland 28-13

SF Chock Maryland 28-10


ES sez, MSU surprises, 26-24

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Michigan State's offense requires new teeth

I have all 32 teeth. Let's see how many remain after this Spartan fall.

I am not going to Spartan Stadium on Saturday's this fall for tooth extractions.  I won't do it. 


It was disappointing.  Too many mistakes everywhere by Michigan State, especially playing against a sub-par opponent in Florida Atlantic.  We’re 1-0, but here are some of my thoughts.


About last night’s game.  It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out MSU is in trouble on the offensive line.  Three yards and a cloud of dust?"  We fed the ball to Carter 19 times for 2.5 yards a carry.  That sucks.  And, many of the plays were telegraphed.  I'm sitting up in Section 121 with Sloth, the God Deieter, and the rest of the section, yelling "My God, stop running it up the middle!!!!  It doesn't work!"  Unfortunately, the coaches didn't listen and kept at it, with little result to show.  Funny how I got cheers from the crowd: the thought being if we struggle to beat FAU, what the hell is gonna happen when Ohio State comes to town?  Michigan State has lots of problems on the offensive interior.  The offensive line could use my dead grandma to open up some holes.  Everything between the tackles was inconsistent and for the most part unproductive.  Let’s look.  


MSU had 179 yards on the ground: that’s pretty good, but what is the problem is looking at efficiency:


https://msuspartans.com/sports/football/stats\


Though MSU averaged 4.8 yards per carry, the issue is that 63 was on one TD run by Lynch-Adams (who should clearly be the starter).  Those are real yards and they count; if this is a consistent trend, I would pleasure it and sell the barn. But the problem is the rest of the game, and when you take out the run, MSU was 36 rushes for just 116 yards or a 3.2 average.  That’s not good.  


If you were at the game, as was I, the game was not fun to watch. Fairly boring, mistakes, poor tackling, and bad blocking.  But what became apparent as the game wore on, was the ineffectiveness of the interior offensive line of MSU.  It seemed like much of the time, QB Aidan Chiles was running for his life.  That’s not a good sign.  


Speaking of Chiles, he missed many wide-open throws, a wide-open TD opportunity that went three rows into the seats, and threw a very bad INT in what should have been a pix-6 as State was driving deep in FAU territory: we were gonna score, and my g-friend and I expected as much, to go up 23-3 and head for the exits.  But, then the stupid throw by Chiles.  It wasn’t good.  Watch it on replay. He only completed 10 passes on 25 attempts, with 2 interceptions.  According to MSU, that's a terrible 62.9 QB rating for Chiles (FAU's QB had an 84.2 rating, and that's accurate as he was the better QB in this game). 


Look at this photo:




This is what you teach QBs NOT TO DO.  Throw off your back foot falling back and making your shoulder do all the work.  Hey, Chiles, your 18 years old, dude.  Step into your throws and stop thinking your talent is going to bail you out.  This is a big problem.  He needs much more coaching on his decision-making.  He did not throw well. 


However, it wasn't all his fault.  WR Montorie Foster dropped two passes, ran poor routes, and fumbled.  He did not play well. He should not be the top option for Chiles, because he is unreliable.  It's unfortunate, but the proof is in the play and not the potential. We need him to play better. 


We also learned that RB Nate Carter was busy eating too many Cheetos and Pizza Hut this summer.  19 carries for 52 yards, mostly up the middle into madness, that's a whopping 2.5 yards per carry.  Carter was completely useless in this game; and, while some of it was poor interior blocking and poor play calling, he had several opportunities to bounce outside.  Instead, Carter just plowed into the middle like Jehuu Caulcrik or Earl Campbell, but with less mass and brains, making Carter just fall down. You can't just plow into the middle when everyone expects it and have Carter get the yards; it's like running into a brick wall; many times, poor ingenuity and poor execution. It reminded me of the John L Smith years, constantly underperforming and making mistakes.  Luckily, we have an effective back in Lynch-Adams, and both his dashiness and his speed were clearly on display. He was the player of the game. 


On defense, they were asked to do more than they should have.  They held up pretty well, giving up just 248 total yards despite all the gifts from the MSU offense. And, they managed SEVEN sacks on a very mobile FAU quarterback.  The talent difference really showed on the defensive front.  MSU should be very tough here this season.  I was pretty surprised about the play of #7 Jordan Turner and #8 Anthony Jones.  They were all over the place and tackled well - it's a big positive for this team.  They played well, and bailed out the offense on several occasions.  




Bottom line, I really really REALLY do not want a season AGAIN where the defense is bailing out the offense.  It makes for ugly wins, gutwrenching games, making things harder than they should be, and just making you want to crap your pants every week.  It’s a lot more fun to watch the Detroit Lions than the MSU Spartans.  Maybe Jonathan should call Dan Campbell?  Hmmmm…..


MSU must beat Maryland next week.  It will not be easy. There are a lot problems that must get fixed. And, it all starts with that interior offensive line.  Tell Foster to catch the damn ball.  And tell Aidan to chill and make better decisions.  All of them have gotta play better.  


GO GREEN. 

Friday, December 27, 2019

ES Preview: Pinstripe Bowl vs Wake Forest


Michigan State Spartans (6-6/4-5) vs 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4/4-4)


December 27, 2019.  3:20 pm ET.
TV: ESPN
Pinstripe Bowl. Yankee Stadium, New York City
Weather: 52, cloudy.

Sagarin Rankings:  MSU #37, Wake Forest #58
Vegas Line:  MSU by 4


The Spartans rang the opening bell at the NYSE on Dec. 26. 

Their stock this year was disappointing.

Well before the bowl selection show on December 8, the Michigan State Spartans knew they would be slotted to play in a baseball stadium as their final game of the year.  MSU football's statistical rankings compare similarly to that of the Detroit Tigers - for instance, the Tigers losing 114 games in 2019, and the Spartans ranked 107th in scoring offense in the NCAA.

NY Yankee's Randy Levine
New York Yankee president Randy Levine expanded on why the Yankees fought hard to outbid other outstanding bowl competition from the Quick Lane Bowl, Cheeze-It Bowl, Camping World Bowl, and others: "We learned our mistakes back in the Gotham Bowl in 1962: too much offense," said Levine. "The New York Yankees now have a laser focus to find at least one team that best resembles the scoring output of our Yankee team - last year, the Yankees scored nearly six runs a game [5.8], and Michigan State's scoring output is a proper fit."

One particular bowl stood out in Levine's comments in trying to land the Spartans: "As a historically successful franchise, we used our tough negotiation tactics with the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl to land the Spartans," added Levine.  "As a compromise, Titus (O'Neill, the Gasparilla Bowl Chairman) said we'd have to also select an unknown basketball school.  Wake Forest was the obvious other choice."

The Yankee organization released information with further notes on why they worked so hard to select Michigan State, comparing the team with similarities to the Detroit Tigers: the Tigers being sued for wrongful termination, the Tigers finishing last in scoring in the AL, the Tigers sporting ugly uniforms; and, the Spartans being sued for wrongful termination, the Spartans finishing last in scoring among true Big Ten teams, the Spartans sporting ugly uniforms.

"The bowl selection process worked as well as it ever has," concluded Levine.



Steely Dan is to perform "Deacon Blues" at halftime.

Baseball yes, football no? Yes, Yankee Stadium was meant to be for today's matchup.  Today's starting lineup:

P - Brian Lewerke
SS - Cody White
1B - Elijah Colins
2B - Jalen Nailor
3B - Matt Seybert
LF - Josiah Scott
CF - Kenny Willikes
RF - Tyriq Thompson
DH - Raequan Williams
Bullpen - Rocky Lombardi, Theo Day

Outlook:  The ES expects Brian Lewerke to have several wild pitches in this game, as he has for much of the season.  If Lewerke can get the ball over the plate on a regular basis, unfortunately we can expect many errors from Spartan fielding, with drops by Collins, Nailor, White, and Seybert leading the Big Ten this season.  At the plate, Raequan Williams and Kenny Willikes have also been a disappointment with few home runs in big games, registering just one sack each against nationally-ranked competition in 2019.  Godforbid the Spartans actually get to their Detroit Tiger-inspired bullpen, with incompetent pitching of backups Rocky Lombardi and Theo Day.  In sum,  expect an error-filled, offensively offensive game from the Spartans.

Predictions:

Smig:  Rutgers wins in the cold
Big Bob: Lewerke throws for 637 yards and the Spartans win 52-0.
Oakland Ronnie: Wake forest wins 45-24 all points coming from Theo day entry into the game in the third quarter on.
RGM3: MSU 24-21. Game winning fg as time expires.  Theo Day throws for 180 and 2 TDs.
Big Joe and Phantom 309: MSU 27-14
GVSU Gregger:  MSU 21-17
The Duchess of Kirkaldy:  Wake 27-14

ES sez:  Wake 27-17

Saturday, November 23, 2019

ES Preview: The Toilet Bowl

MSU Spartans (4-6/2-5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-8/0-7)

November 23, 2019
12 noon ET
SHI Stadium, New Brunswick, NJ

TV:  Fox Sports 1
Weather: 45 and sunny

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #37, Rutgers #134
Vegas Line:  MSU by 21.

What it looks like playing Rutgers for the bottom of the B1G
Coach Dantonio stated this week that he intends to stick around for another year.  Yay.  How exciting.  That means the ES will not renew his season tickets - the ES won't witness more of his garbage on grass. Hopefully new AD Bill Beekman will smell the coffee and make a call to Pat Narduzzi at Pitt to beg him to return to East Lansing and rebuild what his old boss has so methodically ruined.

MSU by 21?  What a joke.  MSU can barely score 10, let alone 21.  Remember last year?  MSU won, 14-10.  Expect something similar.  Note:  The ES almost hit the nail on the head last week, prediction of 41-10 scUM vs 44-10 actual.

Predictions:

RGM3: Rutgers 35-7
Greg:  MSU gets back on track
Big Joe and Phantom 309:  MSU 27-24
Sloth:  Beekman & Dantonio 60, Sloth 0.
Australian Paul:  MSU 28-3
Chef Tom:  Maryland by 14.  LOL.
Oakland Ronnie: 34-31 MSU game winning field goal gets missed but a flag is thrown and gets attempted again successfully
Kat:  MSU 3-0.

ES sez:  MSU 20-14.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

ES Preview: We don't need no stinkin' Badgers

Michigan State Spartans (4-2/2-1) at #8 Wisconsin Badgers (5-0/2-0)
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
October 12, 2019.  3:30 pm ET.
TV:  BTN
Weather: 48/cloudy.  It's windy - 19 mph SW


We don't need no stinkin' Badgers!

Line outta Vegas:  Wisky by 10
Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #15, Wisky #6

Prognostications:

Well, it's going to be cold and windy.  So, expect the Big Green to give up the running game and start throwing the ball into the wind, to be picked off time and again by the nation's #1 defense in Wisky (179 ypg).  Which means the nation's #2 ground gainer, Wisky's Jonathan Taylor (149 ypg), may just dice up this Spartan defense which  struggled against the run against Ohio State.

Sigh.  Saw this game last year in the agonizing RedBox bowl game, a 7-6 loss.  At least the ES is going to the Big D (Ole Shellelagh) to witness the slaughter... and go check out a winner - the 3-1 Detroit Red Wings vs the Toronto Maple Leafs!

  • Wisconsin State Journal: Wisky 21-13
  • Australian Paul:  MSU 14-10.
  • RGM3: Wisky 21-13.
  • Big Joe and Phantom 309: Wisky 35-6
  • GVSU Gregger: Wisky 28-10. 
  • Chris Zech:  Wisky 37-24.  Whiskey in a Jar.
  • Chef Tom (Glen Arbor): Straight Whiskey.
  • Eric J-A (Madison): Wisconsin 24-10. I will be at the game cheering for Bucky and empathizing with State fans. MSU wins only via injury or turnovers.
  • Doc: MSU 16-13. ES is so drunk by halftime, he misses Sparty pull it out.
  • Oakland Ronnie: MSU 23-10.
  • Keith: Wisky 24-10.
  • Carter (Bay Area, Cali): Wisky 35-14.
  • CHock (San Francisco): Wisky 12-6.
  • Sloth (Pittsburgh): Wisky 31-0.
  • Big Bob (Kzoo): Wisky 31-17.
  • The Future Queen of Scotland, Brexit Deal Be Damned (Detroit): Wisky 31-27.

ES sez...  Sparty 7, Wisky 21.  The march to greatness ends. 

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Magic Johnson vs John Cougar Mellancamp

#25 MSU Spartans (3-1/1-0) host Indiana Hoosiers (3-1/0-1)
Sept. 28, 2019.  3:30 pm ET.
East Lansing, MI - Spartan Stadium

TV:  BTN
Weather:  65 cloudy, wind NNE 8.

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #19, Indy #60
Line outta Vegas: MSU by 14



What the hell is going on?  MSU scores a phenomenal 7 points against Arizona State, despite the coaches doing everything to pitch a shut out.  Then, they come out and rip Northwestern 31-10?  ?? This is one up-and-down team.  At least we know the Spartan defense will show up...  hopefully they can score.

Luckily for the Hoosiers, the MSU Homecoming Parade was cancelled due to a thunderbolt storm last night - and the skies are clear today to have the game.

Predictions:

J Rand (Nashville): MSU 42-17
Big Bob (Kzoo): MSU 21-20
Sloth (Pittsburgh): MSU 6-3
CHock (San Fran): MSU 17-16
GVSU Gregger (GVSU): MSU 21-14
RGM3 (metro D): MSU 28-10
Big Joe and Phantom 309: MSU 28-3
The Queen of Scotland (Jackson): Who gives a shit? Indiana 17-13

ES sez... MSU 20, Indiana 10.


Friday, September 13, 2019

ES Preview: MSU Spartans vs Arizona St Sun Devils


#17 MSU Spartans (2-0) vs Special People (2-0)

September 14, 2019.  4 pm ET.
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

Weather:  73 & sunny. Winds: 11 mph out of the West

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #7 (yes #7!), ASU #58.  Following his logic, Sparty should win by 23.
Vegas Line: MSU by 14-1/2

IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR FOOTBALL!  SUNNY, WARM SKIES THROUGHOUT THE GAME! 

Last year, former Philly Eagles player-turned ESPN broadcaster-turned ASU coach Herman Edwards got his signature win courtesy of the Michigan State Spartans in an epic fail offensive offense debacle by Big Green... it was a premonition of the 2018 season.

Enough of the history.  ES likes the special teams of MSU (Hartbarger, Coughlin) and the defense of MSU as big-time pluses.  It will be a defensive game, this time with the Big Green on top.  Coach D, who will have most wins in MSU history, leads his press conference with this gem of a quote by Duffy:

"When you are playing for a national championship, it's not a matter of life or death.  It's more important than that."

What are they saying about their team, and about Michigan State, over in sunny & hot Arizona:  read it from the (ASU) State Press, or the Arizona Republic

Prognostications:
  • Arizona Republic (from six different writers, 1 picks Az State):  MSU 35-10, MSU 24-10, MSU 35-13, MSU 28-17, ASU 21-20, MSU 24-10
  • CHock (in SFO): L, MSU 12 @ ASU 14
  • Mary Cote (in Sacto - mom of ES' grade school friends): MSU 24 v AZ State 7. Made up the score but just want AX to lose so Cal can stay #1 in Pac 12. LOL.
  • Cyn (in Pitt, at 'gate tomorrow): MSU wins!
  • Poke (Grand Ledge): Michigan State 27 Arizona State 10. I am looking for revenge after traveling to the Valley of the Sun last year for the loss.
  • Australia Paul (Queensland, Australia): MSU 21-20
  • Chef Tom (Glen Arbor): MSU ugly
  • RGM3 (Farm Hills):  MSU 33-11
  • Gregger (GVSU): MSU 34-23
  • Big Joe and Phantom 309 (metro Detroit):  MSU 35-30
  • Big Bob (Kazoo): MSU will be twice as gooder as last week so they will win 102-34
  • Keith (Pontiac): MSU 37-10
  • Oakland Ronnie (E Lansing): MSU 20-6
  • Brink (E Lansing): MSU 35-13
  • Greg, the Pie Man (E Lansing): MSU 24-17
  • Kat, the post-Brexit Queen of Scotland (now in Jackson):  MSU 24, ASU 10 ....
  • ES sez: MSU 17, ASU 9

Friday, October 19, 2018

MSU vs that fucking piece of shit

Shopping for teeth? Finish your degree in Anthropology first.... 
#24 MSU vs #6 scUM
12 noon/Fox
40 degrees, 18 MPH wind, and rain

Sagarin Ratings: #5 Mich, #24 Mich State
Line:  Arrogant Assholes by 7

Spartans vs Jesus Harbaugh

All hail to the almighty respondents to making good for what is "right" about college football.  Let us give the holy grail to the man in the Lazy Boy with a $4,000-khaki contract down in preppy-land.   Whatever.  OK, you've won over the masses with your smoke and mirrors, and Northwestern almost figured you out.  Boy, Jesus Harbaugh, you make the rest of us tired just to have to deal with your antics.

I gotta get to a tailgate:

Picks:
J:  MSU 31-30
Kat: MSU 14-10
CHock:  MSU 21-20
Madison Toth:  MSU 21-17
Big Joe and Phantom 309: MSU 28-26
RGM3: MSU 24, other team 20
Paul Australia:  MSU 45-0 (possibly the greatest team to ever wear shoes)
Sloth:  Lite Beer by Miller 3, Sloth 0
Skuz: 17-14
Carter: MSU 24-21. Believe in Dantonio! Felton Davis will catch a couple...Spartan D can stop UM run game...Lewerke will run wild and a few freshman will step up...Hopefully Higgins will not factor...too much...nuff said! MSU 24 UM 21....looking for a great game overall on both sides...makes it more fun....

ES sez:  14-13 MSU

HERE WE GO!  GO BIG GREEN TOUCHDOWN MACHINE!  GET 'ER DONE!