ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs That Other Catholic School

Michigan State Spartans (3-0) at Boston College Eagles (3-0)

Alumni Stadium, Chester Hill, Massachusetts

September 21, 2024.  8:00 pm ET.

TV: ACC Network

Weather:  59 degrees, RAIN.  

Sagarin Ratings: Boston College #55, Michigan State #69

Line Outta Vegas:  The Other Catholics by 5.5

BC Stadium Capacity 44,500. Yikes, that's ACC tiny. 

Yes, it will rain today in Boston.  Rain, rain, rain.

 Big Bob and the ES saw these boys sing this live in EL about 20 years ago.  Let it rain rain rain in Boston.

The ES is up at Mackinac Island for the weekend and will watch the game from the City.  A bit distracted from football today, but will pop in to catch scores during the game around lunch, bicycling, the Grand Hotel, and fudge.   72 and sunny today here up north; better than the pouring rain expected during the game today in Boston.  

First of all, BC has has two significant contests on the road:  a win at wannabees Florida State and BC pushed #6 Mizzou to the limit last week. The Other Catholics have a great rushing attack, with a mobile QB with Nick Castellanos who also has 9 TD passes.  The Boston College running game has been the key for the Eagles. Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward has 153 yards through three games, and the Eagles are averaging 205 yards per game on the ground and 5 yards per carry. The Spartan defense is 23rd in FBS in rushing defense, allowing 78 yards per game.  This is key, especially in a rain storm.

Spartan QB Aidan Chiles has all the talent in the world, with wheels to boot. However, the young man has lots of coaching in front as he must learn to settle down and set his feet before he throws instead of behaving like Patrick Mahomes.  Each time, this gets him into trouble resulting in overthrows and INTs. If he can settle in and MSU can find a way to use its run game, it should have a chance.  But, MSU needs to stop the Other Catholic rushing attack.  Watch Chiles try to lengthen the field to standout 17-year old Nick Marsh.  One or two hits on this could be tremendous.  Can the MSU defense hold up and create a few turnovers in the rain?  Pray and find out. 

This will be a challenging contest for the newbie, undefeated Spartan coach Jonathan Smith, who has MSU undefeated and sitting atop the Big Ten through three games. 

Prognostications:

Big Bob: BC 28-24 MSU
Amsterdam CHock: My original pick was what Bob said. To be different,  I'll say BC 27 - MSU 20
Keith:  MSU 24-23

Australian Paul:  MSU 41-0. We're talking scalps. 

Pittsburgh Sloth:  I predict beer. 

ES sez, MSU 27, BC 23.  

TRIFECTA HITS AGAIN! MSU wins, UM gets its ass kicked, ND loses to the MAC

TRIFECTA IN FAVOR OF MICHIGAN STATE... AGAIN!!!!!

With MSU’s dramatic win over Maryland 27-24 (the ES predicted MSU would win 26-24), combined with the gutting of scUM by Texas, 31-12, and the disaster by the Right Wing Irish to lowly Northern Illinois at home 16-14… WE HIT THE TRIFECTA!!!

This is rare, for MSU to win on the same weekend that Michigan and Notre Dame lose.  It’s a great feeling. I hate those two football teams more than any other in college football, because they’ve had enough time winning. Share the wealth.  The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

From 2015-2024, the Trifecta ooccured 4 times, including today (Sep 7, 2024).  (4 times over 120 weekends = 3.3% frequency).

• From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
• From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
• Seven times in the past 57 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
• Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009 and the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
• There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 57 years. 

Below is a list of the few Trifectas since 2014, and you can link to a previous post from the ES back in 2014 which outlined all of this data back into ancient history.

Date	MSU	ND	MICH
9/7/24	W, 27-24 MD	L, 14-16 NIU	L, 12-31 TEX
9/21/19	W, 31-10 NW	L, 17-23 GA	L 14-35, WIS
11/25/17	W, 40-7 RUT	L, 20-38 STAN	L, 20-31 OHST
11/28/15	W, 55-16 PSU	L, 36-38 STAN	L, 13-42 OHST

Here’s the link to before 2015: https://enlightenedspartan.blogspot.com/2014/11/michigan-state-hits-rare-2-weekend.html

Michigan State's offense requires new teeth

I have all 32 teeth. Let's see how many remain after this Spartan fall.

I am not going to Spartan Stadium on Saturday's this fall for tooth extractions.  I won't do it. 

It was disappointing.  Too many mistakes everywhere by Michigan State, especially playing against a sub-par opponent in Florida Atlantic.  We’re 1-0, but here are some of my thoughts.

About last night’s game.  It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out MSU is in trouble on the offensive line.  Three yards and a cloud of dust?"  We fed the ball to Carter 19 times for 2.5 yards a carry.  That sucks.  And, many of the plays were telegraphed.  I'm sitting up in Section 121 with Sloth, the God Deieter, and the rest of the section, yelling "My God, stop running it up the middle!!!!  It doesn't work!"  Unfortunately, the coaches didn't listen and kept at it, with little result to show.  Funny how I got cheers from the crowd: the thought being if we struggle to beat FAU, what the hell is gonna happen when Ohio State comes to town?  Michigan State has lots of problems on the offensive interior.  The offensive line could use my dead grandma to open up some holes.  Everything between the tackles was inconsistent and for the most part unproductive.  Let’s look.  

MSU had 179 yards on the ground: that’s pretty good, but what is the problem is looking at efficiency:

https://msuspartans.com/sports/football/stats\

Though MSU averaged 4.8 yards per carry, the issue is that 63 was on one TD run by Lynch-Adams (who should clearly be the starter).  Those are real yards and they count; if this is a consistent trend, I would pleasure it and sell the barn. But the problem is the rest of the game, and when you take out the run, MSU was 36 rushes for just 116 yards or a 3.2 average.  That’s not good.  

If you were at the game, as was I, the game was not fun to watch. Fairly boring, mistakes, poor tackling, and bad blocking.  But what became apparent as the game wore on, was the ineffectiveness of the interior offensive line of MSU.  It seemed like much of the time, QB Aidan Chiles was running for his life.  That’s not a good sign.  

Speaking of Chiles, he missed many wide-open throws, a wide-open TD opportunity that went three rows into the seats, and threw a very bad INT in what should have been a pix-6 as State was driving deep in FAU territory: we were gonna score, and my g-friend and I expected as much, to go up 23-3 and head for the exits.  But, then the stupid throw by Chiles.  It wasn’t good.  Watch it on replay. He only completed 10 passes on 25 attempts, with 2 interceptions.  According to MSU, that's a terrible 62.9 QB rating for Chiles (FAU's QB had an 84.2 rating, and that's accurate as he was the better QB in this game). 

Look at this photo:

This is what you teach QBs NOT TO DO.  Throw off your back foot falling back and making your shoulder do all the work.  Hey, Chiles, your 18 years old, dude.  Step into your throws and stop thinking your talent is going to bail you out.  This is a big problem.  He needs much more coaching on his decision-making.  He did not throw well. 

However, it wasn't all his fault.  WR Montorie Foster dropped two passes, ran poor routes, and fumbled.  He did not play well. He should not be the top option for Chiles, because he is unreliable.  It's unfortunate, but the proof is in the play and not the potential. We need him to play better. 

We also learned that RB Nate Carter was busy eating too many Cheetos and Pizza Hut this summer.  19 carries for 52 yards, mostly up the middle into madness, that's a whopping 2.5 yards per carry.  Carter was completely useless in this game; and, while some of it was poor interior blocking and poor play calling, he had several opportunities to bounce outside.  Instead, Carter just plowed into the middle like Jehuu Caulcrik or Earl Campbell, but with less mass and brains, making Carter just fall down. You can't just plow into the middle when everyone expects it and have Carter get the yards; it's like running into a brick wall; many times, poor ingenuity and poor execution. It reminded me of the John L Smith years, constantly underperforming and making mistakes.  Luckily, we have an effective back in Lynch-Adams, and both his dashiness and his speed were clearly on display. He was the player of the game. 

On defense, they were asked to do more than they should have.  They held up pretty well, giving up just 248 total yards despite all the gifts from the MSU offense. And, they managed SEVEN sacks on a very mobile FAU quarterback.  The talent difference really showed on the defensive front.  MSU should be very tough here this season.  I was pretty surprised about the play of #7 Jordan Turner and #8 Anthony Jones.  They were all over the place and tackled well - it's a big positive for this team.  They played well, and bailed out the offense on several occasions.  

Bottom line, I really really REALLY do not want a season AGAIN where the defense is bailing out the offense.  It makes for ugly wins, gutwrenching games, making things harder than they should be, and just making you want to crap your pants every week.  It’s a lot more fun to watch the Detroit Lions than the MSU Spartans.  Maybe Jonathan should call Dan Campbell?  Hmmmm…..

MSU must beat Maryland next week.  It will not be easy. There are a lot problems that must get fixed. And, it all starts with that interior offensive line.  Tell Foster to catch the damn ball.  And tell Aidan to chill and make better decisions.  All of them have gotta play better.  

GO GREEN. 

Enlightened Spartan 2024 Preview

Is this the official song for Michigan State this year?  "Gouge Away"?...we can use a biblical performance by the Spartans this fall. 

Well, Spartan fans.  Here we are.  2024, bring it on.  The one thing we can all agree on:  we can only go UP.   This is the 24th year the ES has published a Michigan State preview.  I'm getting old. 

It's interesting bringing in a new coach for the umpteenth time in my life (Daugherty, Stoltz, Muddy Waters, Perles, $aban, Williams, John L Smith, Dantonio, Tucker, now John A. Smith).  I'm hopeful, and as the ES first predicted on October 6 of last year, Smith would leave his alma mater for greener pastures here in East Lansing.  He's the right guy with recruiting/embracing NIL, tough running game, dynamic QB play, and a rugged defense.  It fits the "tough guy" image of Michigan State that we can only hope pays off.  At $7 million a year, we hope it pays off.

What does the depth chart tell us?  

I'm very keen on watching the line play - on offense, we've plugged the holes with two transfer seniors (including Tanner Miller from Oregon State) joining returnee Brandon Baldwin, and two red-shirt sophomores.  What's the improvement?  From the weight room? Or is it better scheming?  Or just talent?  Our pass defense has been atrocious the past five years, in part because of poor ability to get to the quarterback putting sub-standard DBs on islands and getting burned time and again.

On defense, we have four transfers (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech).  Reminds me a bit back in the day when John "Loser" Smith would plug the losses with transfers on the way to 7-5 seasons.  We can do better, and watch #7 Jordan Turner, a senior out of Wisconsin playing linebacker.  He should be damn good. 

The bonus seems we have a good kicking game (the way it used to be pre-Mel), with Eckley at punter and Jonathan Kim at FGs.  That should help the defense out.  But the offense needs to move the ball to do its part.  To that end, Aidan Chiles is an X-factor who has speed to burn and is a spot-on high level recruit who also transferred from Oregon State.  He's lucky he gets to hand the ball off to Nate Carter, who was easily Michigan State's best RB last year.  Fast, swifty, and with a punch: he reminds me of LJ Scott.  We just need the boys up front to keep the enemy at bay and open them holes.  

The first game against Florida Atlantic should be an interesting test.  Below, we have some prognostications for the season; there will be another brief post with a preview of FAU shortly.  But, this is what the pundits say about MSU this year:

1. What will be the MSU final record in 2024?

2. Will MSU go to a bowl game, and which one?

3. On a scale of 1-5 (1= bad, 5 = good), how do you think new QB Aidian Chiles will perform while making $1 Million in NIL money for the Spartans?

4. What will be the biggest win for MSU?

5. What will be the worst loss for MSU?

6. Are you going to an MSU away game? Which one and why?

7. Which musical act or song will best represent MSU football this year?

Aussie Paul:

1. 15-0

2. National Chamionship

3. 5

4. National Championship

5. N/A

6. No, too far

7. Slayer- "raining blood"

Pittsburgh Lee:

1. 6-6, maybe 7-5.  

2. Whatever the Pizza Bowl is called these days.  

3. Better than Noah Kim, worse than Connor Cook, but exciting to watch.  

4. Win: UM.  

5. Loss: OSU.  

6. Every MSU home game is an away game for me, lol.  

7. "My Erection is Over", a true punk classic.

Pontiac Keith:

I expect that we will be similar to what we were in sabans first year with us.

Mediocre or slightly above...

Lansing Cat:

We'll go 6-6, with our best win over Iowa. and our biggest loss against Michigan.  Song for the year?  "Do You Really Want to Hurt Me?" by Culture Club. 

Big Bob:

1) MSU goes 6-6 this season 

2) but no bowl game. The big jump in performance comes next year 

3) Aiden Chiles will be a 3.1417 on a 1-5 scale 

4) The biggest win in terms of points will be Prayery View but in terms of importance will be Iowa 

5) The biggest loss will once again be to Ohio State 

6) No away game this year but USC would be a great trip next season!

7) Without question, “I want my balls back” by The Exciting Sounds of Savo will best represent MSU this year

The ES:

1.  7-5.

2.  Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Presented by Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop

3.  4 out of 5.  Not his fault if he is running for his life. 

4.  Biggest win?  Iowa

5.  Biggest loss? Ohio State

6.  Oregon, to go see my mom in Port Angeles, WA.  

7.  "Waiting Room" by Fugazi

Aug. 30: Florida Atlantic.  W.  37-17.
Sep. 7. at Maryland.  L.  20-24.
Sep 14. Prairie View A&M.  W.  48-10.
Sep. 21. at Boston College.  W. 31-20.
Sep. 28.  Ohio State.  L.  10-42.
Oct. 4.  at Oregon.  L. 17-45.

Oct. 11. BYE
Oct. 19.  Iowa.  W.  8-4.
Oct. 26.  at Michigan.  L. 16-35.
Nov. 2.  Indiana. W.  32-27.

Nov. 9. BYE
Nov. 16. at Illinois. L.  20-26.
Nov. 22.  Purdue.  W.  35-14.
Nov. 30.  Rutgers.  W.  27-21. 

ENJOY THE SEASON!  GO BIG GREEN TOUCHDOWN MACHINE!!!

Spartoonies take on #17 Illinoisie

The old days with Dick Butkus are back at Illinoisie. Go figure.

Michigan State Spartans at #17 Illinois Illini
MSU (3-5/1-4) at Illinois (7-1/4-1)
November 5, 2022, 3:30 pm ET 

TV: BTN

Weather:  Sunny, 64, winds 11 mph SW

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #49, UI #22

Line outta Vegas:  Illinois by 17

Wait, Illinoisie is ranked?  What year is this, Butkus-esque 1964?  

This is the toughest game of the season for Michigan State.  After the scUM “tunnel fiasco” leaving 4 Michigan Staters suspended (and two defensive starters - Grose and our best player this year, Windmon), it will be a challenge for the Spartans to defend one of the nation’s best runners at the Illini in Chase Brown.  Ugh.  Top that off by the haphazard and underwhelming performance by the offense this year against the nation’s top-ranked defense, and that can spell trouble.  

Mind you, pudding-boy-coached Illinois has not played a heavyweight in its competition to date (beating Iowa 9-6 in a game that took football back 100 years; beating Wisconsin and Minnesota).  Is MSU a heavyweight?  Traditionally, yes, but this test will be foreboding.  The offense for MSU must get on track to have a chance in this game.

ES sez:  Pudding Boy 27, Tunnel Vision 14.