Big Ten expansion update

Looks more and more like Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa State are moving up the leaderboard of possible contenders in Big Ten expansion scenarios.

The Big Ten meetings are this weekend, and a recent interview with commissioner Jim Delaney noted three important points:

1. Gaining a foothold in the South. "In the last 20 or 30 years, there's been a clear shift in movement to the Sun Belt. The rates of growth in the Sun Belt are four times the rates in the East or the Midwest.” This boosts consideration of stealing from the Big 12 -- teams close to or in the Sun Belt -- and away from the Big Least.
2. Extending the reach of the league's lucrative television network. The Kansas City (#26 metro area in US) and St. Louis (#18 metro area) areas are significant - with more than 4.5 million households in these two areas alone. ES explored this earlier.
3. Membership in the Association of American Universities would be “very important." A previous list by the ES lists AAU membership among potential candidates

Well, the ES still doesn't see Texas (AAU member), Colorado (AAU member) or Oklahoma (not in the AAU) in the mix so much. They are just too far away -- too far. So, reviewing the potential candidates, the ES sees expansion to 14 at this point -

1. Notre Dame (not AAU but the only exception to the rule).
2. Missouri (AAU).
3. Kansas (AAU).

Others on the outside looking in:

4. Pittsburgh (AAU).
5. Nebraska (AAU).
6. Iowa State (AAU).
7. Syracuse (AAU).
8. Rutgers (AAU).
9. Texas (AAU).

Mizzou wants IN the Big Ten

If you asked Missouri head football coach Gary Pinkel, a former Toledo head coach, the Tigers want IN to the Big Ten. It's all about money - and you can read about his drooling of the BTN money going to rival Illinois:

"With their TV package, they'll get $11 million more dollars this year than Missouri does in the Big 12, so the value is what it is," Pinkel said of the Illini, emphasizing that the money is vital not merely to football but the entire athletic department. "We've got four more years of this contract, so Illinois, as they're building their athletic department, that's $44 million more. So that's not very good for our league. For the life of me, it's hard to understand."

The ES sees this happening. The Big Ten is waiting to tap the Kansas City-to-St. Louis metro areas, and with it the BTN will make even more money. Mizzou - you want in - you're in.

More on Big Ten/14 Expansion. Add Three?

OK, Big Ten expansion made the national media over this weekend, and the ES is happy to see his buddy, Kyle Sweitzer, mentioned in the NY Times to better understand the relation of what Big Ten membership means to academic prestige. As the ES has said once and said again, AAU membership is an important factor in determining access to the Big Ten -- but it IS an athletics conference.

So, considering all the factors including not only AAU membership and academic prestige, geographic proximity, history with the Big Ten in football, broad-based athletics program (eg. lots of sports offered), current conference athletic affiliation, and television draw/current contracts, here is how the ES handicaps potential Big Ten conference teams joining in 2012. Shown in parentheses are distance from EL and Learfield/Sears Cup (LC) standings as of January 11, 2010 (MSU is #15 overall, impressively).

1. Missouri (411 miles from EL, #121 LC). Everything you read from Missouri, and the more you figure this institution will be the next team, regardless of any decision by Notre Dame. As said by the Governor of Missouri, Jay Nixon, would "rather the state’s flagship school hang out with Northwestern and Wisconsin than Texas Tech and Oklahoma State." Over at StLouis Today, they are already bracing for a Mizzou departure, and begging the Big Ten to take Kansas with and not moan an end to the Mizzou-Kansas "Border War." Adding the St Louis television market is revenue, and it is all about money, no (In 2000, US Census ranked St Louis Metro area as #18 in the nation at 2.7 million)? If it smells like fish, is it chicken? Give this a 75-25 shot.

2. Pittsburgh (283 miles from EL, #95 LC). This just makes sense for a variety of reasons. Pitt is an AAU member. This is halfway between Ohio State and Penn State, meaning travel isn't extended beyond the current boundaries. Joe Pa and Pitt have a long football rivalry. Pitt has a long tradition of successful athletics, but is stuck in the Big Least. They have Wannstache. And, according to the US Census, in 2000 the metro area was 2.4 million. A 60-40 shot.

3. Notre Dame (147 miles from EL, #26 LC). It is in the heart of Big Ten country. Again, ND has its own football contract and independence... but it can be easily traced that ND athletics has lost an incredible amount of prestige since the departure of Lou Holtz and the beginning of the information age. Add the Big Ten network and its $80 million annual contract, and Notre Dame finds its football independence and non-football Big East affiliation to lack complete fulfillment. That NBC contract and Big Least affiliation is no longer the goose the laid the golden egg. Will the Irish priests-in-charge be so stubborn to allow them to miss their best (or last) opportunity for probably the next 20 years or more? The Big Ten won't offer anything more than an invitation. The ND would be foolish to blink, but may be stupid enough to do so. But, from a Big Ten standpoint, while ND has strong academics (and high minimum admissions standards), it also ain't AAU. This is a 50-50 shot.

4-10: Others (read ES examination): Syracuse (#34), Iowa State (#22), Rutgers (#49), Nebraska (#36), Louisville (#70), Cincy (#52), Memphis (#121). All are no better than 25-75.

What about Kansas? 771 miles from EL. Not ranked in LC standings. But, a long time AAU member (since 1909). It would be the new West and South border for the conference, and 1,200 miles from Penn State. If you bring Kansas because of the Mizzou-Kansas rivalry... OK. But this year the broad-based success just doesn't compare without any rating at all in the fall. Seems to me a school needs to bring more than just a rivalry with another. Maybe it does: it is only 40 miles from Kansas City, Missouri, which according to the US Census is the #26 metro area (1.8 million). So, if you added both Mizzou and Kansas, you are adding a potential 4.5 million individuals to the Big Ten, which is an ENORMOUS draw. The problem: look at the map. They are just way out there; at a time when institutions are hurting with money and trimming their budgets for travel, adding a team that extends the current boundary by more than 300 miles doesn't seem to make much sense. I'd say 25-75 shot.

What if Mizzou, Kansas or Pitt, and Notre Dame joined the Big Ten/14? What would the Big Ten/14 Divisions look like? Here is the most likely geographic division split.

Big Ten West
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas or Purdue
Minnesota
Missouri
Wisconsin

Big Ten East
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue or Pittsburgh

When will there be an announcement?

Despite rumors here or there, it will take time. University of Illinois athletic director Ron Guenther stated on January 11, "in the next six to 12 months, expansion will be addressed or not addressed." Which puts the earliest window at July 2010. The original statement from the Big Ten, released in December 2009, said it would take 12-18 months, which would put the earliest window at December 2010. So, don't believe the rumors. Getting 11 Big Ten presidents together in one place within a month is nearly impossible to begin with, let alone all the data and dialogue to approve and submit an invitation... this is higher education, not business. It doesn't just turn around on a dime. Or does it?

Big Ten Expansion Is on the Docket. Let Thy Count the Possibilities

Yes, Money Does rule the day. The day after the ES sez that the Big Ten is more likely to add hockey than expand to 12... well, the Big Ten issues a statement in which its Council of Presidents asked Commissioner Jim Delaney for a recommendation of schools to approach IF the Big Ten were to consider expansion. The Big Ten Network covered their statement with input that Big Ten presidents may receive considerations within 12-18 months. See the video below.

But first up, the most likely nominations? The ES shows distance from East Lansing. A current NACDA/Learfield Sports' Directors Cup (formerly Sears Cup) ranking is also provided as food for fodder to consider competitiveness of the full athletics program. FYI - Michigan State is ranked #13 so far. Ranking is listing by the ES in order of best fit for the Big Ten.

1. Notre Dame (147 miles from EL. Cup: #39). Won't happen unless they give up FB independent status. NBC football TV contract worth $9 million will expire by 2015 and is already equated by Big Ten Network revenues; Big Ten also receives $19 million per school from CBS & ESPN for all sports -- something Big East can't match. Negative is ND Not an AAU member.

2. Pittsburgh (283 miles. Cup: NR). Big Least - its closer than Joe Pa (454 miles). Has a lean 17-sport program. Pitt is an AAU member. Strong in football and hoops.

3. Missouri (411 miles. Cup: NR). Big Twelve. KC Star already on this possibility. A long-time AAU member, with a robust athletics program. A total of 20 sports. Strong in both football and hoops.

4. Syracuse (466 miles. Cup: #5). Big Least. Accepted into the AAU two years after Michigan State. A total of 20 sports, including women's ice hockey. Terrible football, strong hoops.

5. Iowa State (562 miles. Cup: #19). Big Twelve. An AAU member. A very lean 16-sports, average football, good hoops. Likely just too far, and too small.

6. Rutgers (682 miles. Cup: NR). Big Least. A recent AAU addition. The Knights have 22 sports. Recently strong in football, great women's hoops teams. The Big knock is they are just too far, and again a smaller institution.

7. Nebraska (728 miles. Cup: NR). Big Twelve. Another long-time AAU member. One of the historically strongest athletic programs in the nation. Strong football, and Olympic sports. 21 total sports. However, many historical ties to Big Twelve (former Southwest Conference) schools. And, likely too far.

Others? Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis... May the dominoes fall. The ES still sez that ice hockey is a greater possibility than a 12th member. But, let us revisit in 2012.