TRIFECTA HITS AGAIN! MSU wins, UM gets its ass kicked, ND loses to the MAC

TRIFECTA IN FAVOR OF MICHIGAN STATE... AGAIN!!!!!

With MSU’s dramatic win over Maryland 27-24 (the ES predicted MSU would win 26-24), combined with the gutting of scUM by Texas, 31-12, and the disaster by the Right Wing Irish to lowly Northern Illinois at home 16-14… WE HIT THE TRIFECTA!!!

This is rare, for MSU to win on the same weekend that Michigan and Notre Dame lose.  It’s a great feeling. I hate those two football teams more than any other in college football, because they’ve had enough time winning. Share the wealth.  The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

From 2015-2024, the Trifecta ooccured 4 times, including today (Sep 7, 2024).  (4 times over 120 weekends = 3.3% frequency).

• From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
• From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
• Seven times in the past 57 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
• Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009 and the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
• There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 57 years. 

Below is a list of the few Trifectas since 2014, and you can link to a previous post from the ES back in 2014 which outlined all of this data back into ancient history.

Date	MSU	ND	MICH
9/7/24	W, 27-24 MD	L, 14-16 NIU	L, 12-31 TEX
9/21/19	W, 31-10 NW	L, 17-23 GA	L 14-35, WIS
11/25/17	W, 40-7 RUT	L, 20-38 STAN	L, 20-31 OHST
11/28/15	W, 55-16 PSU	L, 36-38 STAN	L, 13-42 OHST

Here’s the link to before 2015: https://enlightenedspartan.blogspot.com/2014/11/michigan-state-hits-rare-2-weekend.html

Enlightened Spartan Preview: #12 Michigan State vs #18 Notre Dame Farging Bastages

A thing of beauty in 2008

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #35, ND #15

MSU 1-0/0-0. ND: 1-1
Saturday, September 17, 2016.
7:30 pm ET.
Touchdown Jesus. South Bend, IN. 

Line: ND by 7-1/2 (vegasinsider.com)
TV: NBC
Weather: 74 degrees, showers/partly cloudy.

Depth Chart - MSU - Friggin Irish

I hate Notre Dame.  Just can't stand the arrogance of the program.  Brian Kelly smells like rotten fish, no matter how Irish he is you can't pour enough malt vinegar on him to smell better.  And, it's the 50th anniversary of the 10-10 tie of MSU vs ND in 1966, at the time, the first ever regular season matchup of #1 vs #2 in college football history.  This time, no ties, and we're under the lights.

The Irish were outplayed by Texas and showed their vulnerabilities in the defensive backfield giving up 50 points to a frosh QB.  However, TD Jesus also was able to score 47 at Texas, with 444 total yards - and over 200 on the ground. Their QB, DeShone Kizer, accounted for 292 of those yards, with 5 passing TDs and 1 on the ground (85 total rushing yards on 13 carries).  So, you can expect to see lots of Kizer tonight.

But, has the ND front line improved since week 1?  Likely.  Tyler O'Connor will get a great test today, as he has some years but not much experience.  Will the Spartan defensive line prove itself today and contain Kizer and the Irish?  The addition of Ed Davis and his pass rush skills should help.   Expect far fewer penalties out of the Spartans, who committed 10 (most of them stupid) against Furman.

As Don (from PB) noted - and the ES concurs - a good healthy does of LJ Scott will tame the ND defense: 25 carries should do it.

Enough with the write up - it doesn't matter anyway, because I just CAN'T STAND THE IRISH.  Another victory will never ever get old.

PREDICTION? ES sez... MSU 27, Drunk Leprechaun 24

Rick: MSU 21-17, Joe: MSU 35-31, Carly: MSU 24-21, Shea: MSU 32-18, Brock: MSU 30-19, Don: MSU 24-21, Brad (I met on the street walking to HopCat): MSU 21-14.

Ronnie sez "ND will not score in the second half.  MSU wins 35-17."

LSJ:  Couch (whom the ES met last night at Reno's) ND 30-20; Solari, ND 31-28
Chicago Tribune:  MSU 27-24
Mlive.com: ND, 21-17
Freep:ND, 31-28
Frankie V:ND, 31-21
Athlon:  ND, 27-21
ND Rivals:Somogyi, ND 27-23; Driskell, ND 33-20; Jones, ND 30-24; Boden, ND 34-23; McKinney, ND 27-20
Heavy.com:  ND 23-20

Michigan State hits rare 2-weekend TRIFECTA (paired with UM and ND losses)

TRIFECTA HISTORY – Past 46 years (since 1968). Weekends: 544. Occurred: 21 times.  3.8%

OK, so Michigan State whipped Penn State, 34-10 in Happy Valley.  Now, let's revisit our trifecta... The ES looked back at this in 2009… and that was when Mark Dantonio was just kicking off as coach. My, oh my,  how things have changed… or have they?  While MSU’s dominance in the rivalry vs Michigan is solidified, we’ve struggled vs the hated Irish… and thusly, the trifecta seemingly is still pretty tough.

But, this weekend we HIT THE TRIFECTA! FOR THE SECOND WEEK IN A ROW (only third time this has happened since 1968)!  MSU beat Penn State, Michigan lost to Ohio State, and ND lost to Southern Cal.... Spartan fans, the trifecta is a a very, very, very difficult thing to do.  What is the trifecta?  Again, the ES Trifecta is defined as: on the same weekend for there to be a Michigan State victory AND losses by Notre Dame and Michigan. Note, on some weekends over the past four decades not all three teams played. But, again, the TRIFECTA makes for a PERFECT football weekend when all three events are combined.

The ES looked back over his lifetime, 46 years long now, to see how often his weekend football Trifecta had occurred.

Is it happening more frequently than the ES remembers in the past? Certainly, YES.  Dantonio is now among the nation’s elite,  Rich Rod and the soon-to-be-has-been Brady Hoke are both Michigan coaching history… Chuck E Weis is a goner at ND, but Brian Kelly seems to have the ability to stick around for the Irish.  Still, let's take a looksie… 

The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

• From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
• From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
• Seven times in the past 46 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing. 
• Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009, and NOW - the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
• There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 46 years. And, the next opportunity to do this is the opening weekend of 2015, since Michigan is ineligible for bowl season.  (it is possible to FINALLY do the trifecta thrice first week of 2015:  MSU at WMU, Michigan at Utah, ND hosts Texas).

The year-by-year break out is below.

2014 (2)

11/22.  Michigan at Maryland. L, 16-23.  ND v Louisville, L, 28-31.  MSU v Rutgers, W, 45-3.

11/29.  Michigan at Ohio State. L, 28-42.  ND at USC, L, 14-49.  MSU at Penn State, W, 34-10.

2013 (1)

11/30.  Michigan v Ohio State, L, 41-42.  ND at Stanford, L. 20-27.  MSU v Minnesota, @. 14-3.

2012 (1)

Bowls.  Michigan v South Carolina (Outback), L, 28-33.  ND v Alabama (BCS Title), L, 14-42.  MSU vs TCU (BWW), W, 17-16.

2010 - 2011: none

2009 (2)
11/7. Michigan vs Purdue. L, 36-38. ND vs Navy. L, 21-23. MSU vs WMU. W, 49-14.
11/14. Michigan at Wisconsin. L, 24-45. ND at Pitt. L, 22-27. MSU vs Purdue. W, 40-37.

2008 (2)
10/11. Michigan vs Toledo. L, 10-13. ND at North Carolina. L, 24-29. MSU at N’western. W, 37-20.
11/1. Michigan at Purdue. L, 42-48. ND vs Pittsburgh. L, 33-36. MSU vs. Wisconsin. W, 25-24.

2007 (3)
9/1. Michigan vs. Appalachian St. L, 32-34. ND vs Georgia Tech. L, 3-33. MSU vs UAB. W, 55-18.
9/8. Michigan vs. Oregon. L, 7-39. ND at Penn State. L, 10-31. MSU vs BGSU. W, 28-17.
11/10. Michigan at Wisconsin. L, 21-37. ND vs Air Force. L, 24-41. MSU at Purdue. W, 48-31.

2006 – 2004: none

2003 (1)
9/20. Michigan at Oregon. L, 27-31. ND vs MSU. L, 16-22. MSU at ND. W, 22-16.

2002: none

2001 (2)
9/8. Michigan at Washington. L, 18-23. ND at Nebraska. L, 10-27. MSU vs CMU. W, 35-21.
11/3. Michigan at MSU. L, 24-26. ND vs Tennessee. L, 18-28. MSU vs Michigan. W, 26-24.

2000 - 1999: none

1998 (1)
9/12. Michigan vs Syracuse. L, 28-38. ND at MSU. L, 23-45. MSU vs ND. W, 45-23.

1997 - 1988: none

1987 (2)
10/10. Michigan at MSU. L, 11-17. ND at Pitt. L, 22-30. MSU vs Michigan. W, 17-11.
11/21. Michigan vs Ohio St. L, 20-23. ND at Penn St. L, 20-21. MSU at Wisconsin. W, 30-9.

1986-1985: none

1984 (1)
10/6. Michigan vs MSU. L, 7-19. ND vs Miami-FL. L, 13-31. MSU at Michigan. W, 19-7.

1983 (1)
9/17. Michigan at Washington. L, 24-25. ND vs. MSU. L, 23-28. MSU at ND. W, 28-23.

1982-1980: none.

1979 (1)
11/10. Michigan at Purdue. L, 21-24. ND at Tennessee. L, 18-40. MSU vs Minnesota. W, 31-17.

1978-77: none.

1976 (1)
11/6. Michigan at Purdue. L, 14-16. ND at Georgia Tech. L, 14-23. MSU vs Indiana. W, 23-0.

1975-1968: none.

MSU in 2014, 2015, 2016+.... the good, the bad, and the ugly

OK, so the Big Ten announced its expanded schedules for 2014 and 2015, with the addition of Rutgers and Nebraska. Below is the Spartans’ schedule those two years, and a sneak-peak at non-conference games in upcoming years. 

2014

Aug. 30 JACKSONVILLE STATE

Sept. 13 at Oregon

Sept. 20 WYOMING

Sept. 27 EASTERN MICHIGAN

Oct. 4 NEBRASKA

Oct. 11 at Purdue

Oct. 18 at Indiana

Oct. 25 MICHIGAN

Nov. 8 OHIO STATE

Nov. 15 at Maryland

Nov. 22 RUTGERS

Nov. 29 at Penn State

2015

Sept. 12 OREGON

Sept. 19 at Western Michigan

Sept. 26 CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Oct. 3  at Nebraska

Oct. 10 PURDUE

Oct. 17 INDIANA

Oct. 24 at Michigan

Nov. 7 at Ohio State

Nov. 14 MARYLAND

Nov. 21 at Rutgers

Nov. 28 PENN STATE

What does this say for 2014 and 2015?  Love MSU hosting Michigan back-to-back in 2013 and 2014, especially  with Dantonio making the Spartans no longer a push over in the series... with the Doctor going 4-2 against scUM.

More interestingly…. 

The good

2014 makes for a great schedule for MSU.  In the Big Ten, MSU gets Nebraska, Ohio State, and Michigan at home.  Love the addition of Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten East division to the Spartans’ schedule which helps give the Big Green a breather.   If MSU is going to make a run for the title game, it’s gonna need to be in 2014 – potentially a Connor Cook senior year at QB.  But, in 2015…

The bad

The ’15 schedule is a flip of the ’14 schedule, playing at Nebraska, Ohio State, and Michigan is a murderer’s row.  Further, playing at Oregon will be nothing short of an arse whipping.  It will help the Spartans’ strength of schedule, but the ES was lucky enough to travel to Eugene the last two times MSU played at Oregon:  a 48-14 whipping in 1999, and a 35-7 shellacking in 1980.  Expect the same at Autzen Stadium in 2014.  Argh.  At least we get them at home in 2015… speaking of which…  

The ugly

Other than the opening game vs Oregon in 2015, why bother purchasing tickets?  CMU, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Penn State round out an ugly schedule.  Only 11 games are on the schedule, so there is an open date the first week of September… expect MSU to fill that game somehow, someway.  Hopefully against a quality BCS opponent.

Jacksonville State and Wyoming in 2014…. in the Sagarin final 2012 rankings, Jacksonville State finished #133 out of  246 Division I football teams; Wyoming wasn’t much better at #121 (MSU finished #34).  On its website, MSU has adding Furman in 2016 (below) - which is also very ugly.  But, with the Big Ten going to nine conference games beginning in 2016, its' the ES bet that game will be dropped for a Big Ten opponent (Northwestern or Minnesota)… see a sneak peek of future opponents below.

2016

Sept. 3 at Alabama

Sept. 10 EASTERN MICHIGAN

Sept. 17 FURMAN

Sept. 24 NOTRE DAME

2017 ALABAMA, vs WMU
2018 vs. Notre Dame, vs CMU
2019 vs. Notre Dame, vs WMU

2020 vs. Miami-Florida, at EMU

2021 vs Miami-Florida

2022 vs. Boise State, vs. Notre Dame

2023  vs. Boise State, vs. Notre Dame

Pray for Poseidon to flood Miami by 10 pm ET

Is it possible for there to be a tie in the BCS title game?  Jesus might not like it, but the vast majority of Americans would.  Alabama vs Notre Dame is about as awful of a matchup as there possibly can be for any college sports fan NOT from a trailer in Alabama and NOT a Catholic (educated or not).

It's Nurse Ratched (Kelly) vs. Sgt. Hartman (Saban)

I'd ask God to intervene, but if he did the Almighty might give HIS damn bias to those hoity-toity chumps from northern Indiana.

So, the possibilities for a tie?

A hurricane.  Maybe a severe earthquake or more likely, a tsunami, to hit the coast of south Florida?  We can all pray to Poseidon, the great Greek God of the Sea, that he will have his seas overwhelm and engulf most of the greater Miami region around the Orange Bowl sometime in the next 2 hours.

Personally, the ES is going to bed before this thing is officially over, because he can't stand the thought of either the Devil (Saban) or his assistant above (Kelly) going to the Promised Land.

The ES figures Alabama is gonna roll all over the Irish, but whatever.  It all makes me want to puke my guts out.  I hate 'Bama.  Even more, I hate the Irish.  If Poseidon intervenes, the world will be better off.

Too bad that Mayan-calendar-end-of-the-world thing didn't work out.  Ugh.

Spartans whip Chips, move to #10 and lead a sucky BigTen

Michigan State totally dominated Central Michigan on Saturday, 41-7. The ES was in Seattle visiting his dad for his 70th birthday, so he missed the game in person, but saw the first half on the tele.

That was enough. What a butt-kicking. The Spartan defense again shined, allowing just 245 total yards, 72 on the ground. And, so far this year, the Spartan defense has not allowed a TD - the Chips scored as the game was ending on an INT of backup Connor Cook. Holding any opponent's offense scoreless in their own stadium is damn impressive. Defensive stud Will Gholston had the only sack, but he broke up a pass and hit CMU's Radcliff a few times. The Spartans held CMU to a ridiculous 17-of-38 passing (45%). On offense, the first half was fine - good return game, defense holding CMU allowed for great field position. Andrew Maxwell, however, threw a few bad throws, including one right into the hands of CMU safety Lorenzo White (yes, he is the son of OUR MSU Lorenzo White). Junior, unlike his daddy, dropped it so it was not an INT but should have been. Maxwell still has some work to do -- but he threw some great passes in the second half (as seen on MSU's game video).

At this point, Michigan State's national ranking in defensive categories is sparkling.

• Total Defense: 225.5 ypg (#8)
• Rushing Defense: 54.5 ypg (#11)
• Pass Defense: 171.0 ypg (#27)
  
• Pass Efficiency Defense: 78.17 (#5)
• Scoring Defense: 10.0 ppg (#12)
  

After a very embarrassing weekend for the Big Ten, Michigan State looks at this point to be really the only decent Big Ten team with bowl eligibility. Michigan State moved up to #10 in polls, and as we were saying last night over some vino and appetizers - that's about where we want to be... no need to get on the map any higher yet. Let's just take care of the G*ddam Catholics next week. Should be fun. At this point, only three Big Ten teams ranked - and the ES can't figure out the varmints at #17 after their annihilation to Alabama followed up by a squeaker against a poor, and undermanned, Air Force Academy.

AP Top 25
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Alabama (48)	2-0	1486
2	USC (8)	2-0	1414
3	LSU (4)	2-0	1404
4	Oregon	2-0	1299
5	Oklahoma	2-0	1160
5	Florida State	2-0	1160
7	Georgia	2-0	1155
8	South Carolina	2-0	1025
9	West Virginia	1-0	1017
10	Michigan State	2-0	995
11	Clemson	2-0	868
12	Ohio State	2-0	772
13	Virginia Tech	2-0	734
14	Texas	2-0	716
15	Kansas State	2-0	714
16	TCU	1-0	542
17	Michigan	1-1	429
18	Florida	2-0	427
19	Louisville	2-0	316
20	Notre Dame	2-0	310
21	Stanford	2-0	260
22	UCLA	2-0	250
23	Tennessee	2-0	177
24	Arizona	2-0	149
25	Brigham Young	2-0	110

• Dropped from rankings: Arkansas 8, Wisconsin 13, Nebraska 16, Oklahoma State 18

• Others receiving votes: Boise State 106, Arkansas 79, Nebraska 79, OREGONST 77, Mississippi State 70, Baylor 54, Wisconsin 44, ULMONROE 23, Ohio 17, Georgia Tech 15, Oklahoma State 13, South Florida 12, ARIZONAST 10, IOWAST 5, NORTHWSTRN 5, UTAHST 1, North Carolina 1

MSU Football schedules cupcakes in 2013, 2014

Spartan Nation:  let's grade the football non-conference schedules for the next three years. The ES gives a high grade of a B- for 2012.  Then, 2013 and 2014 are pathetically uninteresting and uncompetitive.  Jacksonville State in 2014? Come on.  Which team would you schedule for MSU to play in the open date of September 6, 2014?  Hopefully another major BCS-caliber football program like the Oregon Ducks.  The ES hates scheduling revenue-generating bottom-feeders.

2012: Grade = B-.
Aug. 31 BOISE STATE
Sept. 8 at Central Michigan
Sept. 15 NOTRE DAME
Sept. 22 EASTERN MICHIGAN

2013: Grade = C-.
Aug. 31 WESTERN MICHIGAN
Sept. 7 SOUTH FLORIDA
Sept. 14 YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Sept. 21 at Notre Dame

2014: Grade = C.
Aug. 30 JACKSONVILLE STATE
Sept. 6 TBD
Sept. 13 at Oregon
Sept. 20 EASTERN MICHIGAN

Trifecta for 2010

After watching a wide variety of video clips from the fake-FG touchdown victory in OT over Notre Dame... the ES started wondering: how successful has been the TRIFECTA in 2010?

Just a reminder to enlighten the masses: the trifecta is a weekend with an MSU football victory, a Michigan loss, and a Notre Dame loss. As of last year, for the 41 years of the life of the ES (since 1968), it had happened 17 times in 479 weekends of football. But, it happened 7 times from 2007-2009, and only 10 times from 1968-2006. So the frequency had increased dramatically as both ND and scUM take a nosedive in their quality of football.

Does the trend continue in 2010? Not yet. Actually, Michigan lost the past three of the past four weeks, including a bye... but, in two of those weeks when scUM played, Notre Dame did not lose. And, when scUM and ND lost last week - so did Michigan State. Sigh.

This weekend, the TRIFECTA looks good - Notre Dame sans Crist faces undefeated #5 Utah; Michigan faces Illinois, and Michigan State faces Minnesota.

ES predicts TRIFECTA this weekend.

Big Ten expansion update

Looks more and more like Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa State are moving up the leaderboard of possible contenders in Big Ten expansion scenarios.

The Big Ten meetings are this weekend, and a recent interview with commissioner Jim Delaney noted three important points:

1. Gaining a foothold in the South. "In the last 20 or 30 years, there's been a clear shift in movement to the Sun Belt. The rates of growth in the Sun Belt are four times the rates in the East or the Midwest.” This boosts consideration of stealing from the Big 12 -- teams close to or in the Sun Belt -- and away from the Big Least.
2. Extending the reach of the league's lucrative television network. The Kansas City (#26 metro area in US) and St. Louis (#18 metro area) areas are significant - with more than 4.5 million households in these two areas alone. ES explored this earlier.
3. Membership in the Association of American Universities would be “very important." A previous list by the ES lists AAU membership among potential candidates

Well, the ES still doesn't see Texas (AAU member), Colorado (AAU member) or Oklahoma (not in the AAU) in the mix so much. They are just too far away -- too far. So, reviewing the potential candidates, the ES sees expansion to 14 at this point -

1. Notre Dame (not AAU but the only exception to the rule).
2. Missouri (AAU).
3. Kansas (AAU).

Others on the outside looking in:

4. Pittsburgh (AAU).
5. Nebraska (AAU).
6. Iowa State (AAU).
7. Syracuse (AAU).
8. Rutgers (AAU).
9. Texas (AAU).

Night Game vs Notre Dame

What is the one night game this year for Michigan State? Yes, it will be the ND game on Sept. 18.

Notre Dame to join Big Ten? Chris Allen suspended

Has the sleeping giant finally awoke? Read over at NY Times about Notre Dame rethinking its football status, and if enough teams join the Big Ten expect ND to be one of them. Financially, they can't afford it otherwise... especially after paying out about $20+ million in football buyouts of Willingham, O'Leary, and Weis and getting crappy football the past 8 years. The ES moves ND up his list to a maybe to a LIKELY to join the Big Ten. Maybe they aren't so dumb down in South Bend after all.

Chris Allen suspended

OK, so our recent best-defender, Chris Allen, has been suspended by Izzo for "classroom issues" although his eligibility isn't in jeopardy. Not sure if he will play in the Big Ten tourney. If I was coach, I'd make him stay home. He's not traveling already, and he needs to learn what he went to MSU for. If he came to MSU for basketball, he can stay home. If he wants to learn something -- Allen will never play pro ball anywhere except maybe in Israel or Hong Kong -- then he should screw his head back on and hit the books.

More on Big Ten/14 Expansion. Add Three?

OK, Big Ten expansion made the national media over this weekend, and the ES is happy to see his buddy, Kyle Sweitzer, mentioned in the NY Times to better understand the relation of what Big Ten membership means to academic prestige. As the ES has said once and said again, AAU membership is an important factor in determining access to the Big Ten -- but it IS an athletics conference.

So, considering all the factors including not only AAU membership and academic prestige, geographic proximity, history with the Big Ten in football, broad-based athletics program (eg. lots of sports offered), current conference athletic affiliation, and television draw/current contracts, here is how the ES handicaps potential Big Ten conference teams joining in 2012. Shown in parentheses are distance from EL and Learfield/Sears Cup (LC) standings as of January 11, 2010 (MSU is #15 overall, impressively).

1. Missouri (411 miles from EL, #121 LC). Everything you read from Missouri, and the more you figure this institution will be the next team, regardless of any decision by Notre Dame. As said by the Governor of Missouri, Jay Nixon, would "rather the state’s flagship school hang out with Northwestern and Wisconsin than Texas Tech and Oklahoma State." Over at StLouis Today, they are already bracing for a Mizzou departure, and begging the Big Ten to take Kansas with and not moan an end to the Mizzou-Kansas "Border War." Adding the St Louis television market is revenue, and it is all about money, no (In 2000, US Census ranked St Louis Metro area as #18 in the nation at 2.7 million)? If it smells like fish, is it chicken? Give this a 75-25 shot.

2. Pittsburgh (283 miles from EL, #95 LC). This just makes sense for a variety of reasons. Pitt is an AAU member. This is halfway between Ohio State and Penn State, meaning travel isn't extended beyond the current boundaries. Joe Pa and Pitt have a long football rivalry. Pitt has a long tradition of successful athletics, but is stuck in the Big Least. They have Wannstache. And, according to the US Census, in 2000 the metro area was 2.4 million. A 60-40 shot.

3. Notre Dame (147 miles from EL, #26 LC). It is in the heart of Big Ten country. Again, ND has its own football contract and independence... but it can be easily traced that ND athletics has lost an incredible amount of prestige since the departure of Lou Holtz and the beginning of the information age. Add the Big Ten network and its $80 million annual contract, and Notre Dame finds its football independence and non-football Big East affiliation to lack complete fulfillment. That NBC contract and Big Least affiliation is no longer the goose the laid the golden egg. Will the Irish priests-in-charge be so stubborn to allow them to miss their best (or last) opportunity for probably the next 20 years or more? The Big Ten won't offer anything more than an invitation. The ND would be foolish to blink, but may be stupid enough to do so. But, from a Big Ten standpoint, while ND has strong academics (and high minimum admissions standards), it also ain't AAU. This is a 50-50 shot.

4-10: Others (read ES examination): Syracuse (#34), Iowa State (#22), Rutgers (#49), Nebraska (#36), Louisville (#70), Cincy (#52), Memphis (#121). All are no better than 25-75.

What about Kansas? 771 miles from EL. Not ranked in LC standings. But, a long time AAU member (since 1909). It would be the new West and South border for the conference, and 1,200 miles from Penn State. If you bring Kansas because of the Mizzou-Kansas rivalry... OK. But this year the broad-based success just doesn't compare without any rating at all in the fall. Seems to me a school needs to bring more than just a rivalry with another. Maybe it does: it is only 40 miles from Kansas City, Missouri, which according to the US Census is the #26 metro area (1.8 million). So, if you added both Mizzou and Kansas, you are adding a potential 4.5 million individuals to the Big Ten, which is an ENORMOUS draw. The problem: look at the map. They are just way out there; at a time when institutions are hurting with money and trimming their budgets for travel, adding a team that extends the current boundary by more than 300 miles doesn't seem to make much sense. I'd say 25-75 shot.

What if Mizzou, Kansas or Pitt, and Notre Dame joined the Big Ten/14? What would the Big Ten/14 Divisions look like? Here is the most likely geographic division split.

Big Ten West
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas or Purdue
Minnesota
Missouri
Wisconsin

Big Ten East
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue or Pittsburgh

When will there be an announcement?

Despite rumors here or there, it will take time. University of Illinois athletic director Ron Guenther stated on January 11, "in the next six to 12 months, expansion will be addressed or not addressed." Which puts the earliest window at July 2010. The original statement from the Big Ten, released in December 2009, said it would take 12-18 months, which would put the earliest window at December 2010. So, don't believe the rumors. Getting 11 Big Ten presidents together in one place within a month is nearly impossible to begin with, let alone all the data and dialogue to approve and submit an invitation... this is higher education, not business. It doesn't just turn around on a dime. Or does it?

Big Ten Expansion Is on the Docket. Let Thy Count the Possibilities

Yes, Money Does rule the day. The day after the ES sez that the Big Ten is more likely to add hockey than expand to 12... well, the Big Ten issues a statement in which its Council of Presidents asked Commissioner Jim Delaney for a recommendation of schools to approach IF the Big Ten were to consider expansion. The Big Ten Network covered their statement with input that Big Ten presidents may receive considerations within 12-18 months. See the video below.

But first up, the most likely nominations? The ES shows distance from East Lansing. A current NACDA/Learfield Sports' Directors Cup (formerly Sears Cup) ranking is also provided as food for fodder to consider competitiveness of the full athletics program. FYI - Michigan State is ranked #13 so far. Ranking is listing by the ES in order of best fit for the Big Ten.

1. Notre Dame (147 miles from EL. Cup: #39). Won't happen unless they give up FB independent status. NBC football TV contract worth $9 million will expire by 2015 and is already equated by Big Ten Network revenues; Big Ten also receives $19 million per school from CBS & ESPN for all sports -- something Big East can't match. Negative is ND Not an AAU member.

2. Pittsburgh (283 miles. Cup: NR). Big Least - its closer than Joe Pa (454 miles). Has a lean 17-sport program. Pitt is an AAU member. Strong in football and hoops.

3. Missouri (411 miles. Cup: NR). Big Twelve. KC Star already on this possibility. A long-time AAU member, with a robust athletics program. A total of 20 sports. Strong in both football and hoops.

4. Syracuse (466 miles. Cup: #5). Big Least. Accepted into the AAU two years after Michigan State. A total of 20 sports, including women's ice hockey. Terrible football, strong hoops.

5. Iowa State (562 miles. Cup: #19). Big Twelve. An AAU member. A very lean 16-sports, average football, good hoops. Likely just too far, and too small.

6. Rutgers (682 miles. Cup: NR). Big Least. A recent AAU addition. The Knights have 22 sports. Recently strong in football, great women's hoops teams. The Big knock is they are just too far, and again a smaller institution.

7. Nebraska (728 miles. Cup: NR). Big Twelve. Another long-time AAU member. One of the historically strongest athletic programs in the nation. Strong football, and Olympic sports. 21 total sports. However, many historical ties to Big Twelve (former Southwest Conference) schools. And, likely too far.

Others? Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis... May the dominoes fall. The ES still sez that ice hockey is a greater possibility than a 12th member. But, let us revisit in 2012.

Higher Frequency of Football Trifecta (MSU win, scUM & ND loss) since 2007

TRIFECTA HISTORY – Past 41 years (since 1968). Weekends: 479. Occurred: 17 times.

The ES looked back over his lifetime, 41 years long now, to see how often his weekend football Trifecta had occurred. Again, the ES Trifecta is defined as: on the same weekend for there to be a Michigan State victory AND losses by Notre Dame and Michigan. Note, on some weekends over the past four decades not all three teams played. But, again, the TRIFECTA makes for a PERFECT football weekend when all three events are combined.

Is it happening more frequently than the ES remembers in the past? A resounding YES. There IS a changing of the guard with RR in AA-land and Chuck E Weis in South Bend... and the Big Green is a beneficiary with Mark Dantonio. The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

• * From 2007 – 2009, the Trifecta occurred 7 times (7 times over 36 weekends = 19.4% frequency) .
  
• * From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
• * Six times in the past 41 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
• * Twice has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, and the past two weekends.
  
• * There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 41 years. With Michigan a 13 point underdog to Ohio State, Michigan State a 3 point 'dog to Penn State, and Notre Dame a 6 point favorite hosting UConn… can it happen again?

The year-by-year break out is below.

2009 (2)
11/7. Michigan vs Purdue. L, 36-38. ND vs Navy. L, 21-23. MSU vs WMU. W, 49-14.
11/14. Michigan at Wisconsin. L, 24-45. ND at Pitt. L, 22-27. MSU vs Purdue. W, 40-37.

2008 (2)
10/11. Michigan vs Toledo. L, 10-13. ND at North Carolina. L, 24-29. MSU at N’western. W, 37-20.
11/1. Michigan at Purdue. L, 42-48. ND vs Pittsburgh. L, 33-36. MSU vs. Wisconsin. W, 25-24.

2007 (3)
9/1. Michigan vs. Appalachian St. L, 32-34. ND vs Georgia Tech. L, 3-33. MSU vs UAB. W, 55-18.
9/8. Michigan vs. Oregon. L, 7-39. ND at Penn State. L, 10-31. MSU vs BGSU. W, 28-17.
11/10. Michigan at Wisconsin. L, 21-37. ND vs Air Force. L, 24-41. MSU at Purdue. W, 48-31.

2006 – 2004: none

2003 (1)
9/20. Michigan at Oregon. L, 27-31. ND vs MSU. L, 16-22. MSU at ND. W, 22-16.

2002: none

2001 (2)
9/8. Michigan at Washington. L, 18-23. ND at Nebraska. L, 10-27. MSU vs CMU. W, 35-21.
11/3. Michigan at MSU. L, 24-26. ND vs Tennessee. L, 18-28. MSU vs Michigan. W, 26-24.

2000 - 1999: none

1998 (1)
9/12. Michigan vs Syracuse. L, 28-38. ND at MSU. L, 23-45. MSU vs ND. W, 45-23.

1997 - 1988: none

1987 (2)
10/10. Michigan at MSU. L, 11-17. ND at Pitt. L, 22-30. MSU vs Michigan. W, 17-11.
11/21. Michigan vs Ohio St. L, 20-23. ND at Penn St. L, 20-21. MSU at Wisconsin. W, 30-9.

1986-1985: none

1984 (1)
10/6. Michigan vs MSU. L, 7-19. ND vs Miami-FL. L, 13-31. MSU at Michigan. W, 19-7.

1983 (1)
9/17. Michigan at Washington. L, 24-25. ND vs. MSU. L, 23-28. MSU at ND. W, 28-23.

1982-1980: none.

1979 (1)
11/10. Michigan at Purdue. L, 21-24. ND at Tennessee. L, 18-40. MSU vs Minnesota. W, 31-17.

1978-77: none.

1976 (1)
11/6. Michigan at Purdue. L, 14-16. ND at Georgia Tech. L, 14-23. MSU vs Indiana. W, 23-0.

1975-1968: none.

MSU comes up short to the Friggin Irish

Wow, that was heartbreaking. Michigan State lost, 33-30 to Notre Dame, but clearly outplayed the Irish for the better part of the game. The interception by Cousins with :40 seconds left was unnecessary, as we were well within FG range. But as Dantonio said, if ND didn't block the extra point on MSU's previous TD, the whole scenario likely would have changed. Bottom line - Kirk Cousins played GREAT - he had an awesome game, superior to Jimmy Clausen. Captain Kirk throws the ball like a laser, and his only bad throws were his last two -- overthrowing a wide open Caper in the end zone, and then the INT. But, the ES puts this loss squarely on the defensive secondary. MSU's defense is like a sieve, and they better get their shit together in time for Big Ten season next week at Wisconsin.

The ES is disappointed, but know that Captain Kirk is our man and we need to pick up the defense ASAP. DBs need to turn around and play the ball, and play man-up instead of soft. ES is disappointed in Narduzzi and the Spartan defense.

More later - MSU may be 1-2, but there is still some confidence for the Big Ten season. MSU should beat Wisconsin next week, for sure.

MSU ND

FIRST DOWNS................... 27 25
Rushing..................... 5 13
Passing..................... 18 11
Penalty..................... 4 1
NET YARDS RUSHING............. 105 133
Rushing Attempts............ 25 37
Average Per Rush............ 4.2 3.6
Rushing Touchdowns.......... 2 1
Yards Gained Rushing........ 109 163
Yards Lost Rushing.......... 4 30
NET YARDS PASSING............. 354 304
Completions-Attempts-Int.... 26-40-1 24-34-1
Average Per Attempt......... 8.9 8.9
Average Per Completion...... 13.6 12.7
Passing Touchdowns.......... 2 3
TOTAL OFFENSE YARDS........... 459 437
Total offense plays......... 65 71
Average Gain Per Play....... 7.1 6.2
Fumbles: Number-Lost.......... 1-1 1-0
Penalties: Number-Yards....... 6-40 11-99
PUNTS-YARDS................... 3-135 3-124
Average Yards Per Punt...... 45.0 41.3
Net Yards Per Punt.......... 37.3 41.3
Inside 20................... 2 1
50+ Yards................... 1 0
Touchbacks.................. 0 0
Fair catch.................. 1 2
KICKOFFS-YARDS................ 5-322 7-444
Average Yards Per Kickoff... 64.4 63.4
Net Yards Per Kickoff....... 39.4 41.4
Touchbacks.................. 0 0
Punt returns: Number-Yards-TD. 0-0-0 2-23-0
Average Per Return.......... 0.0 11.5
Kickoff returns: Number-Yds-TD 7-154-0 5-125-0
Average Per Return.......... 22.0 25.0
Interceptions: Number-Yds-TD.. 1-0-0 1-20-0
Fumble Returns: Number-Yds-TD. 0-0-0 1-5-0
Miscellaneous Yards........... 0 0
Possession Time............... 25:30 34:30
1st Quarter................. 9:21 5:39
2nd Quarter................. 4:57 10:03
3rd Quarter................. 6:14 8:46
4th Quarter................. 4:58 10:02
Third-Down Conversions........ 5 of 10 5 of 11
Fourth-Down Conversions....... 0 of 0 1 of 1
Red-Zone Scores-Chances....... 3-4 3-3
Sacks By: Number-Yards........ 2-16 0-0
PAT Kicks..................... 3-4 3-4
Field Goals................... 1-2 2-2

Live Chat: Michigan State at Notre Dame

Kickoff: 3:42 pm. TV: NBC.

Open chat below for today's game:

Predictions: ES (MSU 23- 21). LSJ: (ND 27-24) Blog Ten FB (ND 31-24). Bleacher Report (MSU). MLive (ND 34-27). Domer Sports Report (ND 31-27, 34-24). CFN (ND 34-30).

Plant ND AGAIN

Stick IT!

ND predictions & MSU Offensive line roster update

{UPDATED AT 2:35 PM} If you didn't know, the ES posted a new poll in the right column, give your thoughts on the key ingredient to victory over the Friggin' Irish.

Looks like Joel Nitchman is a go for the offensive line at center, but J'Michael Deane is a scratch. That's an imporvement, as we really need Nitchman, but watch out for the right side of the line which has been weaker in the first two games. Add to it that Chris Norman may be getting more reps at LB after the poor play by Brandon Denson.

MORE PREDICTIONS/PREVIEWS (adding more...)

Big Ten Network (MSU 27-24), Chicago Tribune, ESPN/Brian Bennett (ND 28-23), SpartyMSU (MSU 34-24), SportsNetwork (ND 34-24), Wojo/Det News (ND 35-20), Rakes of Mallow, Hammer and Rails (MSU 24-21), UHND.com (ND 34-23), ESPN/Adam Rittenberg (ND 28-27), Free Press (ND 28-24).

What drives me crazy about folks like Fred Bierman at the NYT is that this game "simply is a must win for the Irish." Or, ESPN's Adam Rittenberg, that the Irish "need it more." What about that other team? And not for MSU? It is that sort of disrespect that needs a slap in the face... At least the Chicago Tribune paints both sides equal.

HEY, COUSINS, WATCH OUT FOR MCCARTHY

A great, indepth article on Notre Dame CB Kyle McCarthy posted over at the Fort Wayne News-Sentinel. Said Chuck E Weis: "“Kyle's been (steady) for two years. He seldom misses a tackle and he's usually in the right spot. He comes up with big plays. His interception (against Michigan) led to a score.” He wears #28.

Michigan State defense: "is it soft?"

A few more thoughts on Michigan State heading into South Bend.

If (yes, "if") Michigan State had defeated CMU, likely there wouldn't be the amount of skepticism over the Spartans as there is currently. The Chips had the better game and deserved to win; but, they needed an onside kick recovery, soft Spartan defense, and a penalty to give them another shot at the winning FG. Let's be honest: if MSU wins, maybe ND would be favored by 3 or 4, but not by 11. That's a TD difference, and the Spartans only lost by two -- this doesn't add up. Furthermore, if I remember correctly, this is a ND team that was 7-6 last year that lost to an improved, but not invincible, 3-9 Michigan team from a year ago: that game last week wasn't USC vs Ohio State: it was a hype-fest of two "storied" programs both of which have coaches on the hot-seat.

As stated earlier, I think the CMU game was our first real game of the year; we didn't learn anything vs Montana State. Now, this week, is where MSU needs to make its biggest improvement; and it has the talent to do it. When folks state the Spartan defense is "soft," at this point I'm not buying it as the m.o. for the team -- with an experienced defense, expect them to play far better... which should be an improvement over last year. It was soft (vs CMU), not is soft (I hope). Don't get me wrong, the Spartan defense didn't play up to expectations... but D-ccordinator Pat Narduzzi needs to cut them loose and Lefevour had a solid game experience the week before (at Arizona) to adjust and improve for the trip to Michigan State. Against ND, the ES expects a tenacious Spartan defense that will play better - the Spartans gave up 7 points to ND last year (both teams with roughly the same players)... and y'all think we'll give up 30 this week? ???

The Spartan offense should be the major concern: can a team (ND) giving up 170 yards a game on the ground stop a rushing game (MSU) that has been relatively ineffective (3.4 ypc against CMU)? Can the O-line open a few holes, and can the RBs hit them for some gains and take some pressure off Cousins/Nichol? Can the O-line keep the ND defensive pressure at bay, and if not, can the offense better use its talented TEs and drop the ball to RBs in the flat (unlike last week)? Having Mark Dell and Joel Nitchman back are huge pluses... and hopefully MSU can stretch the field a bit more with its wideouts. They just need to hang on to the damn ball.

That said, this game really is in the coaches hands as far as how they handle their game plan for the Irish and focus this team to play how they are expected to play. Playing ND this week is perfect: we need to see how the Doctor handles adversity, and he's got it right in his face. The ES says, BRING IT ON!

SPARTAN PLAYERS MEETING
The ES doesn't read a whole lot into the Spartans having a players-only "team meeting" following the CMU debacle. That's all fine and dandy, and if that is how the captains determine they want to focus this team, then so be it. But, it isn't a panacea - rather it just shows that the players are taking ownership of the situation. They still need to block better, tackle better, catch better, and run better. A player's meeting won't fix that; but practice and focus will.

ES Game Day Preview: Michigan State 23, Notre Dame 21

Michigan State (1-1, #67 Sagarin) at Notre Dame (1-1, #32 Sagarin)

Saturday, September 19. 3:30 pm noon EST.
TV: NBC
Weather: 74, sunny.

Injuries: Michigan State — WR Mark Dell (shoulder), probable; C Joel Nitchman (knee), questionable; RG J'Michael Deane (leg), questionable; Notre Dame — WR Michael Floyd (knee), probable; FB James Aldridge (shoulder), doubtful.

ES predicts Michigan State 23, ND 21. MVP of the game: Brett Swenson. Why? This will be a back and forth game, with the Spartans needing three clutch FGs from Swenson to come away with the victory. The ES isn't yet cashing in his chips on MSU, and he ain't sold on ND. MSU faces a more traditional offense, as does ND. Both these teams have many of the same players as last year, and enough talk out of MSU that the Spartans will be aggressive on defense. Expect the TEs on both teams to be involved: ND will combat the Spartan aggressiveness with RB screens and outlets to TEs. This means that Spartan LBs need to honest and tackle solid... which is their forte. ND wideout Michael Floyd had 15 stitches behind his knee... will that reduce his effectiveness? We shall see how the tall Spartan DBs stand up to the long ball. A good pass rush, and MSU will be fine because it will reduce pressure on all the others. This may mean blitzing is in order.

On offense, MSU needs to find a running game, and hopefully the return of Joel Nitchman and Mark Dell will lead to a more effecient MSU offense. Expect Kirk Cousins to see more playing time at QB... and better hands out of Spartan receivers when it matters (on 3rd down). MSU will involve their capable TEs after giving them a rest last week (and, subsequently, criticism for bad playcalling). I'm not convinced the Spartan running game will get any better this week even though the Irish are giving up boat loads of yards on the ground so far. But, it won't matter as much, because the game will turn into a defensive battle as the two teams dig in.

A concern is MSU not allowing long returns by ND kick returners: watch MSU make some adjustment to minimize this risk. MSU needs to reduce the stupid penalties and play aggressive. It will. MSU will be ready, and I'm getting the sense that MSU has the focus to get it done. This is the biggest test yet of the Dantonio era, and it can also be a defining test by showing Weis how to rally the troops and get it done.

Game Day Analysis on ND: USA Today, Bleacher Report (ND 34-23), Midwest Sports Fans (ND), NBC Sports (ND 30-24), Irish Sports Daily, UHND.com,

What do you think? What will be the game's biggest surprise? Comment Below -