Cotton Bowl Preview: Michigan State vs Alabama

Here it is! Cotton Bowl Preview! The ES is at the Peanut Barrel and then heads to Dallas to  banter with an Alabama rooter.   Video footage from East Lansing and Dallas as well as guest predictions! Enjoy...   Predictions:

ES:  MSU 20-18.   Joe: MSU 21-10  Shea:  MSU 26-23  Tim:  MSU 27-24.  Howard:  Bama 42-10.

Enlightened Spartan Rails on Bama and the Great $atan

Enlightened Spartan Preview: #5 Mich State vs #4 Iowa Uglybirds

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #11, Iowa #14

MSU: 11-1/7-1. Iowa: 12-0/8-0
Saturday, December 5, 2015. 8:17 pm ET.

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.

Weather: Doesn't F'ing matter. But outside, it will be 50 degrees earlier.  

Line:  MSU favored by 3-1/2

TV:  FOX

GO BIG GREEN!  Watch this sheisse.  ES and April are joined by Ronnie and Nicole as they yeeee-haw toward the Big Ten championship.   One note;  Rod of the PB predicts at Michigan State 36-35 win over Iowa.   ROD IS ALWAYS RIGHT.  Enjoy this video.  :)

Michigan State favored by 3 in B1G Title vs Iowa

Big Green is an early 3 point fave vs Iowa in Big Ten title game.

Alabama is favored by 16 over Florida in the SEC showdown. Stanford is a 3-1/2 pt fave over Southern Cal.  San Diego State is favored by 3-1/2 over Air Force (who MSU beat earlier this year) in the Mountain West stint.  Clemson is favored by 6 over North Carolina.  Houston is a 5.5 fave over Temple in the American Athletic title game.  Western Kentucky is favored by 8 over Southern Miss in the Conference USA championship. Bowling Green is favored by 9 over NIU in the MAC title.

After what we just did to Penn State, we should be favored... GO GREEN!  Woop woop!

Enlightened Spartan Preview: #5 Mich State vs Penn State

This is what awaits Quackenberg... 

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #15, Penn State #42

MSU: 10-1/6-1. Penn St:  7-3/4-3
Saturday, November 28, 2015. 3:30 pm ET.

Spartan Stadium, Columbus, OH

Weather: 40 degrees, cloudy, winds 5-10 mph

Line:  Big Green favored by 11

TV:  ABC

The ES actually recorded a preview in Chicago... but the audio petered out.  So, here we are with our standard preview.  Hope to be back next week with a preview of the Big Ten Title game... IF WE BEAT PENN STATE

Penn State has a very good defense, but their offensive line is atrocious.  And, the Lion QB Hackenberg has been hammered all year - he only passed for 130-odd yards against Michigan last week on 13-32 (40%) passing... and yet PSU still hung around, trailing by only five points (21-16) midway through the fourth. 

But, Michigan State seems to be back with a force in the trenches... with a completely healthy offensive line and defensive line.  It showed in the total domination of the Ohio State interior.  Spartan defense allowed only 123 total yards to the Buckeyes, while rolling up 203 on the ground against OSU.  The surprise was the solid play of backup QBs Tyler O'Connor and Damien Terry, who filled in for our star QB, Connor Cook.  Each made a mistake, but for the most part ran a very, very well called game by the Spartan coaching staff: a combined 8-16 for 91 yards, 1 TD; better yet, a combined 16 carries for 50 yards.  And, allowing only 5 Buckeye first downs while the Spartans possessed the ball for 38+ minutes?  Domination. 

The refs?  If they did not allow the force-out-of-bounds by Aaron Burbridge that led to a 36 yard completion from Tyler O'Connor - the longest pass of the game on either side - I would have gone ballistic (considering how MSU was screwed at the end of the Nebraska game).  But, the Big Ten crew allowed it, and it was a different crew than what the Big Green has faced this year.  With the football gods on our side, MSU ended up scoring on the drive.  

Bottom line, it is amazing how well you can accomplish a task when you have the right tools: namely, your best, healthy players. 

MSU doesn't need to get fancy against the Lions.  As long as the boys play inspired in the trenches, it should wear down PSU as the game goes on.  I would expect to see a bit more of a passing game out of MSU - whether it is Cook or not.  Regardless, I find it difficult to fathom how the Lion offense will be able to stop the flood of the MSU defense pouring in on Hackenberg - and the repositioning of the MSU defensive backfield with the addition of Darian Hicks helping to create better pass coverage.  

With so much on the line - a trip to the Big Ten title, potential trip to the College Football Playoff. And, Michigan State's coaching has been, for the most part this season, very good.  

Predictions:  ChiSpartan:  MSU (with Cook) 34-21; (without Cook) 24-21.  EnlightenedSpartan:  MSU 31-13.    

If the Spartans win, a variety of scenarios are set up for the Big Ten title vs Iowa - read here.

College Football Playoff Scenarios for Michigan State

Let's not look past a very tough Penn State game this week; although Quackenbush doesn't look so hot (his offensive line is offensive) yet, the Nittany defense is tough.

But, MSU handles Penn State... so, OK, here are some predictions for Michigan State in the College Football Playoff.  Note that the Orange Bowl (Miami) gets seeds 1-4; Cotton Bowl (Dallas) gets seeds 2-3. 

Probable scenarios assuming MSU wins Big Ten title vs. undefeated Iowa, Clemson beats South Carolina, and Alabama defeats Auburn.

1. Everyone wins out. MSU gets #4 seed. Book your rooms in Miami.
2. Clemson loses ACC title.  The rest win out.  MSU gets #3 seed.  Book Dallas.
3. Alabama loses SEC title.  The rest win out.  MSU gets #3 seed. Book Dallas.
4. Clemson loses ACC title. Alabama loses SEC title.  MSU gets #2 seed. Book Dallas... or, MSU gets #1 seed pending tight win by Oklahoma; then, Book Miami. 
5. Oklahoma loses to Ok St.  The rest win out.  MSU gets #3 seed.  Book Dallas.
6. Clemson loses ACC title.  Oklahoma loses to OK St.  MSU gets #2 seed.  Book Dallas.
7. Alabama loses SEC title.  Oklahoma loses to OK St.  MSU gets #2 seed.  Book Dallas.
8. Clemson loses ACC title. Alabama loses SEC title.  Oklahoma loses to Ok St.   MSU gets #1 seed.  Book Miami.

If MSU wins vs Penn State but loses Big Ten Title?  It would likely play #9 Stanford in the Rose Bowl.  Book Pasadena.

If MSU loses to Penn State?  It would get the #3 Big Ten spot, the Capitol One Bowl.  Book Orlando.

Here are your top 7 playoff contenders:

#1 Clemson (11-0/7-0)

vs 3-8/1-7 South Carolina.
vs #14  10-1/7-0 North Carolina.

#2 Alabama (10-1/6-1)

vs 6-5/2-5 Auburn.

vs #12 10-1/7-1 Florida.

#3 Oklahoma (10-1/7-1)

vs #11 10-1/7-1 Oklahoma State. 

end of season.

#4 Iowa

vs 5-6/3-4 Nebraska.  

vs (projected) #5 11-1/7-1 Michigan State.

#5 Michigan State (10-1/6-1)

vs 7-4/4-3 Penn State.

vs #4 12-0/8-0 or 11-1/7-1 Iowa. 

#6 Notre Dame (10-1)

vs #9 9-2/6-2 Stanford.

end of season.

#7 Baylor (9-1/6-1)

vs #19  9-2/6-2  Texas Christian.

vs 4-6/3-4 Texas. 

Big Green jumps to #5; awaits the Quakers

Michigan State surges in the polls to #5 in the College Football Playoff, with a convincing 17-14 victory at the horseshoe over Ohio State in Columbus.  Now, bring on the Quakers of The Pennsylvania State University.

The ES watched Quackenberg against scUM and thought, not only does the Quaker offensive line have no push or protection, but Quacker really didn't play well under pressure.   Now, the Quakers have great defense, but that will be tough sledding for a full day against a refurbished, and healthy, Spartan O-Line.  I'm looking forward to the stint.  And, the MSU defense has returned to form... playing off the charts.

The rankings...

TEAM	RECORD	CFP	AP POLL	SOS	SOR	GC	RAT	RK
Clemson	11-0	1	1	32	2	1	21.2	6
Alabama	10-1	2	2	5	1	2	24.3	3
Oklahoma	10-1	3	5	34	3	5	26.4	1
Iowa	11-0	4	3	67	5	11	12.9	28
Michigan State	10-1	5	6	50	8	13	16.5	17
Notre Dame	10-1	6	4	29	7	6	19.7	8
Baylor	9-1	7	7	62	9	3	25.1	2
Ohio State	10-1	8	8	58	13	10	22.5	4
Stanford	9-2	9	13	24	12	18	19.3	9

THIS IS IT!

So, Connor Cook, AJ Troup, and Tyler Hoover (Indy Colts) walk into the Peanut Barrel last week.  Joe, the owner repeats to them what I have beaten into Joe all year:  "Hi guys, THIS IS IT!"  Cook agreed, said they are focused on winning it all.  And, the three of them are huge human beings.  :)

This leads into the article in the Freep today, with this pretty quote by Cook:

"When you're in this position, you just have to hold people accountable," said Cook, who will have a strong argument over Cousins as the best MSU quarterback under Dantonio with a successful senior season. "There's a time to joke around and be funny, and there's a time to be serious. For me going into my last year, I think I need to be more assertive. More serious as in being a better leader, more vocal, I'm trying to take it up a notch. It's just me going into my last year and not having any regrets."

All I gots to say is... THIS IS IT.  Look at the roster, across the board.  The only two weaknesses are:  RB (my dead grandma can run behind this OL and get 5 yards), and DB (lots of playing time, lots of experience... hopefully the DL can put on the pressure).  Add gun-wielding stud Delton Williams back into RB for a second-chance, and now you have a true STUD at RB (re: Le'Veon Bell, Jehuu Caulcrick - big, shifty, and strong).   The schedule is fairly weak, except for Oregon (home) and Ohio State (road).  The OSU v MSU matchup is likely to be the playoff contender.  So, we gotta figure out how to win vs #1 OSU in Columbus.  We did it before with a shittier team under $aban, we can do it now with a better team.

A win over Ohio State in Columbus, and Urban Meyer will have another fake heart-attack.  Go GREEN.

Look for some new changes from the ES this year.  Video podcasts with a reporter, live GoPro tailgate footage, etc.  I bought the equipment, now its time to ramp it up  Go GREEN!

THIS IS IT!

Michigan State a 1-1/2 point underdog to Baylor in Cotton Bowl

From the mouth (and juicy guitar) of the great Roy Clark:   "Well, I never picked cotton... But my mother did, and my brother did, and my sister did, and my daddy died young...."

We're going to the COTTON BOWL!  The Michigan State Spartans made one of the Big Six Bowls and will meet the Baylor Bears, ESPN, 12:30 New Years Day in Arlington Texas.  In all honesty, the logo for the Cotton Bowl should in some way incorporate Roy Clark or Johnny Cash

What is the enemy already saying?  Reading here: "Personally, I'm thrilled with the opportunity to square off against a B1G team to prove our supremacy."  Well, we shall see, no?  Wait 'til the Bears get the big load from the vaunted Big Green DEFENSE...  The ES is excited to see the Spartans, and we have a record-setting offense of our own, in a pretty good matchup against the high-flying Bears from the Big 12.

All top 6 teams were victorious this weekend, with a major ass-whipping by Ohio State vs Wisconsin (59-0) in the Big Ten title game... so the Top 4 in the College Football Playoff are: the Alabama $abans, the Oregon Buck$, the Florida State Cheaters, and the Ohio State Wieners.   And, thusly, Michigan State stayed at #8 in the CFP final poll.

The very, very early odds pick MSU as a 1-1/2 point underdog to Baylor... (seriously???). The odds are:

• Michigan State (+1 1/2) vs Baylor (Cotton)
• Mississippi State (-7) vs Georgia Tech (Orange Bowl)
• TCU (-3) vs Ole Miss (Peach)
• Arizona (-4) vs Boise St (Fiesta)
• CFB: #2 Oregon (-8) vs #3 Florida St (Rose)
• CFB: #1 Alabama (-9) vs #4 Ohio St (Sugar)

Here is the final CFB Poll:

College Football Playoff Rankings
RK	TEAM	RECORD
1	Alabama	12-1
2	Oregon	12-1
3	Florida State	13-0
4	Ohio State	12-1
5	Baylor	11-1
6	TCU	11-1
7	Mississippi State	10-2
8	Michigan State	10-2
9	Ole Miss	9-3
10	Arizona	10-3
11	Kansas State	9-3
12	Georgia Tech	10-3
13	Georgia	9-3
14	UCLA	9-3
15	Arizona State	9-3
16	Missouri	10-3
17	Clemson	9-3
18	Wisconsin	10-3
19	Auburn	8-4
20	Boise State	11-2
21	Louisville	9-3
22	Utah	8-4
23	LSU	8-4
24	USC	8-4
25	Minnesota	8-4

Who to root for as a Spartan FB Fan this Saturday

Who to root for this weekend?  One down already: in the third quarter, #2 Oregon is hammering #7 Arizona, 44-7.  #8 Michigan State will leapfrog the Cats without even playing a game - and, this looks good for MSU, whose 1 of 2 losses came to the Ducks.

So, who should the Spartan Nation root for? Let's look at those in action ranked above the Spartans who are playing this weekend:

• #1 Alabama vs #16 Missouri (SEC title).  Always root against that evil man, Nick $aban, who left MSU high and dry.  But, even if 'Bama loses (may as well predict the planet Mars to explode), they likely would not fall enough for MSU to leapfrog.   
• #3 TCU vs Iowa State.  TCU is favored by 5 TDs.  Root for Iowa State, but much as noted above, the Horned Frogs are a lock against a 2-8 Cyclone team.
• #4 Florida State vs #11 Georgia Tech (ACC title).  Root for Georgia Tech in a close game, just because the tattered history of Florida State football is so damn ugly to support. And, we need one loss out of Florida State or Baylor.  Fla State has been an unimpressive undefeated team, and with a Ga Tech win, the Jackets may likely leapfrog MSU, but the Spartans could also leapfrog the 'Noles (depending on how the size of the victory/loss). 
• #13 Wisconsin vs #5 Ohio State (Big Ten title).  Much like 'Bama, there isn't much love in the football world for the Buckeye's Urban Meyer.  Gotta hate the cheating ways of the wiener.  Plus, a Buckeye loss combined with the injury to QB Barrett would likely see quite a drop out of the Buckeyes, and a Spartans leapfrog.  
• #6 Baylor vs #9 Kansas State.  Baylor is favored by a TD, but ROOT FOR Kansas State in a close game.  A close Cat win would likely allow the possibility of a MSU jump because of the few spots between Baylor and KSU... however, there is the possibly of a KSU jump over MSU.  

Realistically, Alabama & TCU are locks. Oregon is rolling. Thus, let's think if Ga Tech, Wisky, and Kansas State win.  That could move the College FB Rankings to be as follows:

1.  Alabama
2.  Oregon
3.  TCU
4.  Georgia Tech or Kansas State
5.  Kansas State or Georgia Tech
6.  Florida State
7.  Michigan State
8.  Wisconsin
9.  Mississippi State
10.  Baylor
11.  Ohio State
12.  Ole Miss
13.  Georgia
14.  Arizona, etc...

If K-State wins but Ga Tech loses, then the top 4 remain set (Ala, Ore, TCU, Fla St) and Mich State likely can move up to #6.

Michigan State a FG fave over Buckeyes

The Big Green Machine is a FG favorite at home over the dreaded #13 Ohio State Buckeyes.  The winner of the game is likely the East Division rep for the B1G title game, and the conference's only shot for a CFB Playoff bid.  The whole season has builded up to this... and the ES will chime in later this week with this thoughts.

In other B1G odds:

• Penn State favored by 4 at Indy
• Minny favored by 1 hosting Iowa
• NW favored by 2 hosting scUM
• Wisky favored by 15 at Purdon't

Bye week:  Illinois, Nebraska, Maryland, Rutgers

And, as expected with the loss of Ole Miss (that was a GREAT game, and a tough loss by the Rebels in the last minute), Michigan State rose a spot in the AP Poll to #7.

AP Top 25
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Mississippi State (45)	8-0	1484
2	Florida State (15)	8-0	1452
3	Auburn	7-1	1345
4	Alabama	7-1	1281
5	Oregon	8-1	1275
6	TCU	7-1	1148
7	Michigan State	7-1	1120
8	Notre Dame	7-1	1096
9	Kansas State	7-1	1049
10	Baylor	7-1	961
11	Arizona State	7-1	831
12	Ole Miss	7-2	828
13	Ohio State	7-1	780
14	LSU	7-2	717
15	Nebraska	8-1	680
16	Oklahoma	6-2	574
17	Georgia	6-2	465
18	UCLA	7-2	464
19	Clemson	6-2	341
20	Utah	6-2	327
21	Arizona	6-2	325
22	Duke	7-1	288
23	Marshall	8-0	238
24	West Virginia	6-3	159
25	Wisconsin	6-2	83

• Others receiving votes: Colorado State 67, USC 48, Missouri 42, Georgia Tech 15, Louisville 7, Stanford 4, North Dakota State 4, Florida 1, Texas A&M 1

Little Blue UM no match for 17-pt fave Big Green MSU

It is RIVALRY WEEK and as such it's amazing to see Michigan State favored by 17 points against the Ann Arborites.  It's the largest spread for MSU over scUM in my lifetime - and the reason is that Big Green is a Top-10 team, defending Rose Bowl Champions, and the Wolverines are not even in the same league.

The ES actually feels bad for Little Blue.  David Brandon, the scUM AD, is as clueless in marketing college athletics as he was successful as the CEO of Domino's Pizza,  backup QB Shane Morris is caught in a concussion controversy, coach Brady Hoke should be making decisions for Pillsbury crescent rolls instead of a football team, and injuries, injuries: leading rusher Derrick Green is out for the season; DL Jabrill Peppers is questionable; and, OL Sean Magnuson is also questionable... etc, etc.

Remember last year, QB Devin Gardner was planted like a petunia in Spartan Stadium in a 29-6 loss, being sacked eight times en route to -46 yards rushing. Gardner puked on his final play as he headed out of the game, smashed like your grandma's potatoes.

With scUM missing a starting OL and their leading RB gone for the season, and an anemic Michigan offense going against a fairly good Spartan defense... and, to boot, when MSU gets the ball, it is among the nation's leading scorers, giving up the fewest sacks, creating the most turnovers, and also leading the nation in Time of Possession....  Well, on paper this is a complete blow out.  MSU should be able to score at will, on long drives, and pound Michigan into a deep-six holiday that lasts until next season or longer.  Michigan can't move the ball and can't score.  Done deal.  Gardner won't survive.

Here are the basic stats:

Michigan Offense: #110 total yards, #82 sacks allowed, #44 TOP, #105 scoring
Michigan Turnover Margin: #124
Michigan Defense: #10 total yards, #41 team sacks, #29 scoring

MSU Offense:  #12 total yards, #1 in sacks allowed, #1 TOP, #3 scoring
MSU Turnover Margin:  #3
MSU Defense: #9 total yards,  #4 team sacks, #33 scoring

More later... but reads like Sayonara to me.

POLLS - PLAYOFF DUE OUT TUES OCT. 28

Michigan State is shooting up the coaches poll to #5, but is static in the AP media poll at #8.  Doesn't matter much, as the College Football Playoff poll will have its first stanza this upcoming Tuesday at 7:30 pm on ESPN - look for MSU to go up a notch or two with a pounding of hated Michigan.

USA Today Poll
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Mississippi State (36)	6-0	1520
2	Florida State (22)	7-0	1493
3	Ole Miss (4)	7-0	1447
4	Alabama	6-1	1293
5	Michigan State	6-1	1243
6	Auburn	5-1	1210
7	Oregon	6-1	1133
8	Notre Dame	6-1	1117
9	Georgia	6-1	1096
10	TCU	5-1	996
11	Kansas State	5-1	909
12	Ohio State	5-1	856
13	Baylor	6-1	853
14	Arizona State	5-1	654
15	Arizona	5-1	612
16	Nebraska	6-1	588
17	East Carolina	5-1	578
18	Oklahoma	5-2	482
19	Utah	5-1	371
20	Clemson	5-2	320
21	USC	5-2	258
22	Marshall	7-0	247
23	LSU	6-2	155
24	Minnesota	6-1	147
25	West Virginia	5-2	143

• Dropped from rankings: Oklahoma State 15, Stanford 20
• Others receiving votes: Oklahoma State 141, Duke 116, UCLA 107, Missouri 23, Colorado State 18, Wisconsin 17, Washington 5, Stanford 2