Showing posts with label Michigan State vs Baylor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michigan State vs Baylor. Show all posts
Friday, January 02, 2015
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
LIVE CHAT for Cotton Bowl 12:30 ET
Join the ES below for a live chat of the Cotton Bowl. A preview & prediction of Michigan State at Baylor is HERE.
ES Game Day: MSU will rough up Baylor in Cotton Bowl
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
#8 Michigan State (10-2) at #5 Baylor (11-1)
January 1, 2015. 12:30 ET.
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
TV: ESPN
Weather: doesn't matter, indoors
Line: Baylor -2.5
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #9, Baylor #10
Check it out: Cotton Bowl Pinterest site
Interesting Fact: This year's matchup is the first top-10 battle in the Cotton Bowl since 1994 (#4 ND vs #7 Texas A&M).
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| Morgan Freeman loves the Cotton Bowl |
Predictions:
SportsRatings (a very good, statistical analysis). MSU 38-35
Dallas Morning News: Baylor 48-38
Free Press (Rexrode): Baylor 41-38
Athlon Sports: MSU 31-28
CBS Sports: 3 pick MSU, 3 pick Baylor (vs spread)
SI.com: Baylor 41-38
Rant Sports: MSU 27-24
International Business Times: MSU (vs spread)
WSBT TV-22 (South Bend): MSU 38-31
NJ.com: (Duggan) Baylor 41-30; (Sargeant) MSU 41-38
CFN/Scout: MSU 48-40
Bet Firm: Baylor
FanSpeak: Baylor 45-30
Joe (Peanut Barrel): MSU 48-42
Stat breakdown (advantage in bold):
MSU rush off (234 ypg, #22) vs Baylor rush def (108 ypg, #8)
MSU pass off (262 ypg, #39) vs Baylor pass def (260 ypg, #104)
MSU total off (497 ypg, #12) vs Baylor total def (367 ypg, #40)
Baylor rush off (235 ypg, #21) vs MSU rush def (97 ypg, #3)
Baylor pass off (346 ypg, #5) vs MSU pass def (196 ypg, #24)
Baylor total off (581 ypg, #1) vs MSU total def (293 ypg, #5)
Turnover margin: MSU (+20, #1) vs Baylor (+12, #7)
Third down conversion offense: MSU (48.3%, #10) vs Baylor (47.5%, #15)
Third down conversion defense: MSU (30.5%, #7) vs Baylor (35.9%, #28)
Time of possession: MSU (35 mpg, #1) vs Baylor (29 mpg, #73)
ES sez:
Lots of offense out of both teams. Expect enough rush defense - and enough of a pass rush - out of the Michigan State Spartans at a few critical times to mess up the timing of the high-flying, fast paced Baylor offense. MSU will give up big plays on defense, but should also make a few big plays on defense... enough to eek out a win.
Actually, the key of the game is more likely the ability of the MSU offense to control the ball enough to keep Baylor's offense off the field. Michigan State has the tools to get it done - if it can execute, particularly on third downs. While the Spartans lead the nation in time of possession, the ES considers the adage: "it's not how long you have the ball, but what you do with the ball when you have it." MSU just was not effective enough on offense to stall #2 Oregon or #4 Ohio State because the defense did not do its part - particularly late in the game... But with a month to prepare, expect coach Mark Dantonio and defensive guru Pat Narduzzi to be ready. Expect a trick play or three - we haven't seen as much of it this year out of the Spartans.
History is on the Spartans' side... and as the course of the season has progressed, the Spartans have been able to improve their margin of victory at a greater pace than Baylor - and, this is against better competition in the B1G Ten than in the Big 12.
It is very difficult to see each team scoring less than 35 points in this game. MSU has a better overall defense.... and we know defense wins championships.
Final Score: Michigan State 49, Baylor 38.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
Three strikes against Baylor: Vegas, 2014 margin of victory, and History. Farewell to Narduzzi
Three strikes and you're out. Here are three strikes against the Baylor Bears in the 2015 Cotton Bowl vs Michigan State :
#1: Vegas. The Texas-sized home advantage has pushed Baylor to roughly a FG advantage over MSU. That's PERFECT, bring it on. The Spartans have proven their superiority as an underdog in three of the past four years: in particular, MSU has covered its past three bowl games and is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games as an underdog.
#2: 2014 Margin of Victory. Baylor scores in buckets (so do the Spartans)... but since October, their margin of victory has really nose-dived. The Bears also give up a TON of points. Against "real" competition (BCS foes), Baylor has surrendered 27 points or more in six of nine games, including their last three. However, they are also like Oregon - basketball on grass - and have scored 30 points or more in seven of nine "real" BCS games. What is interesting is their margin of victory. When you compare the average margin of victory over the season, MSU and Baylor are now virtually dead-even, with a 23 ppg adv for MSU, and a 25 ppt adv for Baylor... but when you use a simple linear regression to model the average margin of victory... the Spartans have now inched past Baylor in their probable average margin of victory. Why? MSU's level of competition has been more even over the season, and their margin of victory has actually been greater than that of Baylor in the last month.
#3: What do we know about Baylor? It's not the most storied history - we Spartans are morose, and lament our many mediocre periods... but our flashes of brilliance have been far greater than those of Baylor. Mediocrity and challenge have a far warmer home in Waco, TX, than they do in East Lansing. Baylor has really only had two mega-famous football players: Mike Singletary (the All-Pro, and NFL Hall of Fame LB), and recent Hiesman-winner Robert Griffin III (though 22 of them are currently in pro football).
The Baylor Bears have played in 20 previous bowl games, with a 10-10 record, but only five games in MAJOR bowls: the Orange in 1953, the Sugar in 1957, the Cotton in 1975 and 1981, and the Fiesta last year. The 13-7 win over Tennessee in the 1957 Sugar Bowl is the only major bowl victory in Baylor history.
Baylor has won two of their last four bowl games under the current coach, Art Briles. Baylor lost to Illinois in the 2010 Texas Bowl and were upset by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last year; they defeated Washington in the Alamo Bowl and UCLA in the Holiday Bowl in 2011 and 2012. Under Briles, they are 55-33, a 62.5% winning advantage which is significant compared to their history. Baylor's historical record is 560-546-44, which is a 50.7% win percentage dating back to 1898 (MSU is 668-439-44, a 59.9% dating to 1896).
OTHER NEWS: About Narduzzi to Pitt
Congrats to Pat Narduzzi, our Defensive Guru, for snagging the gig at the University of Pittsburgh. He's deserved it, and hopefully he won't find it the graveyard of coaches that so many others have. NARDUZZI WILL COACH THE MSU DEFENSE IN OUR BOWL GAME VS BAYLOR.
The ES wish list: Don't show up on the BTN Afterthought show with the Wannstashe... Instead, Coach Narduzzi, please turn Pitt into an ACC contender (you can't turn them into a champ, it's impossible), but return to EL in 8 years when the Doctor retires... Stay tuned... :)
#1: Vegas. The Texas-sized home advantage has pushed Baylor to roughly a FG advantage over MSU. That's PERFECT, bring it on. The Spartans have proven their superiority as an underdog in three of the past four years: in particular, MSU has covered its past three bowl games and is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games as an underdog.
#2: 2014 Margin of Victory. Baylor scores in buckets (so do the Spartans)... but since October, their margin of victory has really nose-dived. The Bears also give up a TON of points. Against "real" competition (BCS foes), Baylor has surrendered 27 points or more in six of nine games, including their last three. However, they are also like Oregon - basketball on grass - and have scored 30 points or more in seven of nine "real" BCS games. What is interesting is their margin of victory. When you compare the average margin of victory over the season, MSU and Baylor are now virtually dead-even, with a 23 ppg adv for MSU, and a 25 ppt adv for Baylor... but when you use a simple linear regression to model the average margin of victory... the Spartans have now inched past Baylor in their probable average margin of victory. Why? MSU's level of competition has been more even over the season, and their margin of victory has actually been greater than that of Baylor in the last month.
#3: What do we know about Baylor? It's not the most storied history - we Spartans are morose, and lament our many mediocre periods... but our flashes of brilliance have been far greater than those of Baylor. Mediocrity and challenge have a far warmer home in Waco, TX, than they do in East Lansing. Baylor has really only had two mega-famous football players: Mike Singletary (the All-Pro, and NFL Hall of Fame LB), and recent Hiesman-winner Robert Griffin III (though 22 of them are currently in pro football).
The Baylor Bears have played in 20 previous bowl games, with a 10-10 record, but only five games in MAJOR bowls: the Orange in 1953, the Sugar in 1957, the Cotton in 1975 and 1981, and the Fiesta last year. The 13-7 win over Tennessee in the 1957 Sugar Bowl is the only major bowl victory in Baylor history.
Baylor has won two of their last four bowl games under the current coach, Art Briles. Baylor lost to Illinois in the 2010 Texas Bowl and were upset by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last year; they defeated Washington in the Alamo Bowl and UCLA in the Holiday Bowl in 2011 and 2012. Under Briles, they are 55-33, a 62.5% winning advantage which is significant compared to their history. Baylor's historical record is 560-546-44, which is a 50.7% win percentage dating back to 1898 (MSU is 668-439-44, a 59.9% dating to 1896).
OTHER NEWS: About Narduzzi to Pitt
Congrats to Pat Narduzzi, our Defensive Guru, for snagging the gig at the University of Pittsburgh. He's deserved it, and hopefully he won't find it the graveyard of coaches that so many others have. NARDUZZI WILL COACH THE MSU DEFENSE IN OUR BOWL GAME VS BAYLOR.
The ES wish list: Don't show up on the BTN Afterthought show with the Wannstashe... Instead, Coach Narduzzi, please turn Pitt into an ACC contender (you can't turn them into a champ, it's impossible), but return to EL in 8 years when the Doctor retires... Stay tuned... :)
Sunday, December 07, 2014
Michigan State a 1-1/2 point underdog to Baylor in Cotton Bowl
From the mouth (and juicy guitar) of the great Roy Clark: "Well, I never picked cotton... But my mother did, and my brother did, and my sister did, and my daddy died young...."
We're going to the COTTON BOWL! The Michigan State Spartans made one of the Big Six Bowls and will meet the Baylor Bears, ESPN, 12:30 New Years Day in Arlington Texas. In all honesty, the logo for the Cotton Bowl should in some way incorporate Roy Clark or Johnny Cash
What is the enemy already saying? Reading here: "Personally, I'm thrilled with the opportunity to square off against a B1G team to prove our supremacy." Well, we shall see, no? Wait 'til the Bears get the big load from the vaunted Big Green DEFENSE... The ES is excited to see the Spartans, and we have a record-setting offense of our own, in a pretty good matchup against the high-flying Bears from the Big 12. All top 6 teams were victorious this weekend, with a major ass-whipping by Ohio State vs Wisconsin (59-0) in the Big Ten title game... so the Top 4 in the College Football Playoff are: the Alabama $abans, the Oregon Buck$, the Florida State Cheaters, and the Ohio State Wieners. And, thusly, Michigan State stayed at #8 in the CFP final poll.
The very, very early odds pick MSU as a 1-1/2 point underdog to Baylor... (seriously???). The odds are:
- Michigan State (+1 1/2) vs Baylor (Cotton)
- Mississippi State (-7) vs Georgia Tech (Orange Bowl)
- TCU (-3) vs Ole Miss (Peach)
- Arizona (-4) vs Boise St (Fiesta)
- CFB: #2 Oregon (-8) vs #3 Florida St (Rose)
- CFB: #1 Alabama (-9) vs #4 Ohio St (Sugar)
Here is the final CFB Poll:
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