ES Preview: MSU vs Purdon't

Michigan State hosts Purdon't Toiletmakers
October 27, 2018, 12 ET
Spartan Stadium
TV:  ESPN
Weather:  45, cloudy, 25% chance of light showers.

Line outta Vegas:  Pick 'em; flip a quarter

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #31, Purdon't #22

Picks:

Kat:  MSU, 24-21
Big Joe and Phantom 309:  MSU, 24-21
Gregger:  Purdon't 34-17
Keith:  MSU 21-20
Australian Paul:  MSU 45-0
CHock:  MSU 28-21
Sloth:  Rodeo Burger 1, Sloth 0
Zech: Pur-Shouldn't 27, Mobile Armed Spartan Hospital 17
Ronnie: Purdon't 54-10 ES sez:  Will the offense please show up?  Time to put in Rocky Lombardi since Lewerke is just not getting it done.  Just gotta beat Rutgers and Maryland to get to the Toilet Bowl; it ain't gonna happen this week.   Purdon't 21, Lost Offense 17.

ES Preview from the Peanut Barrel: Michigan State vs Purdue

#2 Michigan State vs. Purdue

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #28, Purdue #107

Saturday, October 3, 2015.  12 pm ET.

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

Weather: 55 degrees, cloudy, windy

Line:  MSU favored by 22

TV:  ESPN2

Predictions:  April 38-6, ES 31-14

Analyzing 4th quarter woes: MSU is moving on UP!

After the 45-31 win at Purdue, the Big Green is moving on up, this time to #6 in the coaches poll, but remain at #8 in the media poll (see below). This is fine, whisper words of wisdom, Let it Be.   The Big Green will keep winning (a 2-TD favorite at Indy) and make adjustments to the point that it excels like a well-oiled machine by the time we meet the stumbling Wolverines.  Hopefully.

This team is interesting.  It has so much firepower:  the second quarter explosion at Oregon, the three-quarter domination vs. Nebraska, the third-quarter surge at Purdue.  Michigan State currently ranks fourth nationally in scoring at 45.5 points per game.

The problem is the 4th quarter.  Against decent competition this fall, Michigan State has faltered after its scoring explosion, being outscored 47-7 against these same teams in the final stanza.  This differs greatly from last year's squad, which outscored teams 112-30 in the fourth quarter over the season.

Yes, the Spartans have given up more points in the 4th quarter during six games this year than in all of 14 games last year.  Ahem, that's a problem.

On the other hand, this season's Michigan State team has already scored 245 points through the first three quarters in just six games, which is on pace to nearly double last year's team which scored 299 points through the first three quarters during the 14-game season.  And, the 80 points against the Big Green D over the first three quarters so far this season is only about half of the 155 given up in all of last year.

Here is the comparison, MSU scoring 2013 vs 2014

GP (Games Played),  Q (Quarter)

	GP	Q 1-3	Q 4
Offense:
2014	6	245	28
2013	14	299	112
Defense:
2014	6	80	54
2013	14	155	30

The stats don't lie.  The MSU scoring offense is far more explosive and efficient than last year's squad.  And the defense is not as stingy.  But, can these forces equate to more wins in 2014?  It seems to be a dicey game - and one that has proved victorious in competition against teams from non-interesting locations (West Lafayette, Laramie, Lincoln); but there is work to do to shore up the game when playing Ohio State, and/or the potential B1G title game.

What is also impressive is that this Michigan State team is dictating the game more often than not, leading the nation in Time of Possession, with 35:52 per game.  That is very impressive of a team that is also #17 in Total Offense at 502.3 yards per game... but, moreover:  #2 in the country in Turnover Margin, at 1.83 per game; #5 in Rushing Defense at 81.5 yards per game; and #12 overall in defense at 304.2 yards per game.

In other words, statistically this team is very very stout.  The problem is this 4th quarter hiccup in the three games... otherwise, MSU would likely lead in every single statistical category in the nation.

Shoring up the defense in the 4th quarter, completing passes on third downs in the 4th quarter, and not trying a fake-punt in our own territory in the 4th quarter would go a long way toward a greater statistical advantage... and less nausea.  Furthermore, MSU showed poor form with the young LB Riley Bullough (#30) out of position on a 52-yard TD run by the Boiler's Akeem Hunt; as well as  the once-again-close-but-no-cigar, 4th-quarter phantom-INT by Kurtis Drummond that led to a 12-yd first down completion on a TD drive by Purdue.

But, it is a game of inches.  And, vs both Nebraska and Purdue, the defense picked off passes late in the game that were definitive in the Spartan victories.

This week, our Michigan State team has another good test to get its act in order vs a high-flying Indiana team.  Let's see if they can settle down, again score early but for once put the game away early in the 4th quarter and keep the Hoosiers at bay.  Here's the USA Today poll for you to enjoy...

USA Today Poll
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Mississippi State (26)	6-0	1490
2	Florida State (31)	6-0	1489
3	Ole Miss (5)	6-0	1436
4	Baylor	6-0	1392
5	Notre Dame	6-0	1292
6	Michigan State	5-1	1129
7	Alabama	5-1	1121
8	Auburn	5-1	1111
9	Oregon	5-1	1017
10	Georgia	5-1	1013
11	Oklahoma	5-1	1005
12	TCU	4-1	824
13	Ohio State	4-1	737
14	Kansas State	4-1	710
15	Oklahoma State	5-1	610
16	East Carolina	5-1	518
17	Arizona	5-1	502
18	Arizona State	4-1	471
19	Nebraska	5-1	433
20	Stanford	4-2	344
21	Texas A&M	5-2	269
22	Clemson	4-2	244
23	Utah	4-1	161
24	Marshall	6-0	153
25	USC	4-2	125

• Dropped from rankings: UCLA 17, Georgia Tech 23, Missouri 24
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• Others receiving votes: UCLA 116, LSU 80, Minnesota 78, Duke 70, Washington 70, Kentucky 37, Wisconsin 34, West Virginia 17, Iowa 15, Georgia Tech 14, Oregon State 10, Colorado State 5, Missouri 5, BYU 2, Rutgers 1

ES Game Day: Purdon't Won't

#8 Michigan State Spartans at # 97 Purdue Boilermakes
October 11, 2014.  3:30 pm ET.
Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
ABC-TV

Weather: 59 and sunny.

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #14, Purdue #97
Line: MSU favored by 21

Predictions & Previews:

• Lafayette Journal Courier: MSU 36-12
• Hammer & Rails: Crespo, MSU 30-7, Schneider, Pur 24-21; Van Gessel, MSU 34-10; Zimmerman, MSU 45-20; T-Mill, MSU 34-10
• Gold and Black: Charters, MSU 28-14; Clardie, MSU 31-10; Karpick, MSU 28-16; Neubert,  MSU 27-13; Baugh, MSU 27-14
• Freep/Rexrode: MSU 38-10
• Lansing State Journal:  Couch, MSU 41-13; Solari, MSU 37-10; Calloway, MSU 41-7
• ESPN.com: MSU 38-10
• OddsShark: MSU 41.9- 22.5
• CFN/Scout.com:  MSU 41-16
• Detroit Sports Site:  MSU 37-17
• Picks and Parlays: MSU 34-17
• The Power Rank: MSU by 11.7
• CBSSports: MSU unanimous

ES sez:  Well, ahem, later next week,  the ES will discuss the insanity of Mark Hollis' considering penalizing the student body by reducing their ticket allotment (isn't it COLLEGE???? yeah, let's cut out the college out of college sports).  The fact that ESPN's Brian Bennett seemingly agrees with this viewpoint once again underscores the fact that students don't matter when the media is paying the bills.  Read this: 

• "If students don't want to go or stay through the game -- particularly in the upper-deck areas -- then I have no problem with the schools cutting those sections back. Students aren't obligated to attend or stay through home football games. Likewise, tuition does not guarantee good seats to those games."

This is about the dumbest argument ever made, from both a commercial and an amateur point of view.  Reducing access to students who will be your future ticket sales?  Biting the hand that feeds?  Actually, tuition SHOULD guarantee good seats.  The argument here is so backwards from both a branding and commercial standpoint, it defies logic.  Absolutely Stupid.  Anyhow... 

But, as far as this weekend's game:   Oh My.  Poor Purdon't.  They will be taking on the Spartans after the wrong end of a quarter of football in which the Spartans fell asleep... After dismantling Nebraska for 85% of the game, MSU nodded off and nearly paid the price.  Not this week.

The problem for Purdue is - they really don't.  They are arguably the WORST team in the B1G Ten this year.  The Big Green is arguably the best team... and the defending champions need to make a stride after last week's scare.  

Let's look at the basic stats:

• Purdue Total Offense #102, 351.8 ypg vs MSU Total Defense #11, 297 ypg
• Purdue Rushing Offense #67, 170 ypg vs MSU Rushing Defense: MSU #4, 72 ypg
• Purdue Passing Offense #104, 181.8 ypg vs MSU Passing Defense #48, 225 ypg
• MSU Total Offense #24, 497.4 ypg vs Purdue Total Defense #76, 408.6
• MSU Passing Offense: #51, 257.2 ypg vs Purdue Passing Defense #105, 273.5 ypg
• MSU Rushing Offense #22, 239.2 ypg vs Purdue Rushing Defense #48, 135.2 ypg

In every category, offense vs defense, Michigan State overwhelmingly ranks as superior.  And, MSU has had the tougher schedule, playing at Oregon and vs Nebraska.   Not much more needs to be said.  The ES sees an absolute demolition tomorrow in West Lafayette:  the Hammer will fall off the Rails.  

MSU 55, Purdon't 13. 

#8 MSU favored by 22 at Purdon't

Well, despite the 27-22 victory... after the Spartan 4th quarter meltdown that led Nebraska back into the game, we missed an opportunity for a major vault in the national rankings.  MSU jumped up two spots to #8.  Watching a 27-3 lead evaporate in the span of 12 minutes was nerve-racking... but, there is one relief: Spartan teams of the past would have choked.  But, not us. It was the best defensive performance of the year out of MSU.  More on this in Monday's post.

That said, the Big Green is a healthy 22-1/2 point fave at Purdon't this week.  Early odds for upcoming Big Ten stints:

MSU -22 at Purdue

Minnesota -3 vs Northwestern

Wisky -24 vs Illinois

Iowa -7 vs Indiana

Penn State -1/PK at Michigan

Bye:  Nebraska, Ohio State, Rutgers, Maryland

Associated Press Poll:

AP Top 25
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Florida State (35)	5-0	1461
2	Auburn (23)	5-0	1459
3	Mississippi State (2)	5-0	1320
3	Ole Miss	5-0	1320
5	Baylor	5-0	1258
6	Notre Dame	5-0	1186
7	Alabama	4-1	1060
8	Michigan State	4-1	981
9	TCU	4-0	979
10	Arizona	5-0	951
11	Oklahoma	4-1	904
12	Oregon	4-1	888
13	Georgia	4-1	854
14	Texas A&M	5-1	731
15	Ohio State	4-1	534
16	Oklahoma State	4-1	527
17	Kansas State	4-1	486
18	UCLA	4-1	460
19	East Carolina	4-1	344
20	Arizona State	4-1	325
21	Nebraska	5-1	283
22	Georgia Tech	5-0	235
23	Missouri	4-1	212
24	Utah	4-1	206
25	Stanford	3-2	143

• Dropped from rankings: LSU 15, USC 16, Wisconsin 17, BYU 18
• Others receiving votes: Clemson 92, Marshall 78, USC 61, Louisville 36, LSU 35, BYU 26, West Virginia 18, Arkansas 14, Wisconsin 7, California 6, Penn State 5, Rutgers 4, Kentucky 4, North Dakota State 3, Minnesota 2, South Carolina 1, Virginia 1
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Michigan State a 13 point fave at Illinois after 14-0 blanking of Purdue; MSU defense ranks #1!!!!

The 6-1/3-0 Michigan State Spartans, fresh off their blanking of Purdue, and will likely crack the Top 25 when the polls are announced,  are an early 13 point favorite at 3-3/0-2 Illinois according to the early Vegas line.  Iowa is favored by 3 home over Northwestern; Nebraska by 8-1/2 at Minnesota; Ohio State by 14-1/2 home over Penn State.

The Spartans shutout Purdue, 14-0, in what was the ugliest performance from Connor Cook this season.  Michigan State's defense gave up a few big plays between the 20s, but did not allow Purdue to get any closer than the 25 yard line all game long - that is ZERO red zone opportunities for the Boilermakers.  The Spartan defense gave up just 226 total yards, just 66 rushing yards on 34 attempts (1.9 average).  Max Bullough's stat sheet lit up like a XMas tree: 10 tackles, 2 for loss, 1 forced fumble (returned for a TD), 1 sack, and 1 QB hurry.  Nice.

Spartan RB Jeremy Langford looked very good, running for 131 yards on 24 carries (5.5 average).  State had 182 yards on the ground.  The offensive line opened up some nice holes all game long.

As for our QB, Cook wasn't close to having an INT... he wasn't close to hitting on half of his throws.  Cook looked terrible and consistently missed wide open receivers on third down.  Heck, even though the Spartan offense looked good on its only TD drive, a 9-play 73 yard drive in the 4th quarter, Cook didn't throw the TD pass... it was WR Tony Lippett throwing the pass on an end around.   Cook was 13-of-25 for 107 yards.  Before that final drive, Cook had just 33 yards passing on the day. The ES would give Cook a "D" grade for his performance on Saturday.  Two steps forward, one step back for Cook.

	PUR	MSU
1st Downs	14	21
3rd down efficiency	5-15	5-13
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-1
Total Yards	226	294
Passing	160	112
Comp-Att	14-25	14-26
Yards per pass	6.4	4.3
Rushing	66	182
Rushing Attempts	34	41
Yards per rush	1.9	4.4
Penalties	3-30	2-14
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	28:59	31:01

Statistically, MSU's defense is certainly the best in the nation. Through Oct 19 games, this is where Michigan State ranks nationally:

Category,  Rank,  Statistic
Total Defense, #1, 228.0 ypg
Rushing Defense, #1, 59.1 ypg
Passing Yards Allowed, #4, 168.9 ypg
Team Passing Efficiency Defense, #1, 88.41
Scoring Defense, #4, 13.6 ppg
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, #3, 27.3%
First Downs Defense, #1, 13.4 pg
Time of Possession, #4, 34:11

The ES has gotta print the Big Ten standings, with Michigan State on top of the Legends through the first three Big Ten games.

Big Ten - Legends	CONF	OVERALL
* - Michigan State	3-0	6-1
Nebraska	2-0	5-1
* - Michigan	2-1	6-1
Iowa	1-2	4-3
Minnesota	1-2	5-2
Northwestern	0-3	4-3
Big Ten - Leaders	CONF	OVERALL
* - Ohio State	3-0	7-0
Wisconsin	3-1	5-2
x - Penn State	1-1	4-2
Indiana	1-2	3-4
Illinois	0-2	3-3
Purdue	0-3	1-6

And, here are some nice photos by the ES of Saturday's victory over the Boilermakers.  After the first quarter, it stopped raining and turned out to be a beautiful, 55-and sunny fall game.  Indeed, the weather was nicer than the Spartan offense....

Second quarter backed up on our 10...

 Second quarter struggles...

 Beginning to see some sunlight...

 

 Third quarter defense bends bud doesn't break...

 4th quarter lineup for our only offensive TD...