ES Preview: Getting Worse vs Rapidly Improving

MSU Spartans (4-4/2-3) vs Illinois Fighting Illini (5-4/3-3)
Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI.  3:30 pm ET.
November 9, 2019

Weather: 41 partly cloudy.  Winds: 11 ssw.

Vegas Line:  MSU by 14-1/2 (yes, they are smoking crack in Sin City)
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #23, Illinois #77 (Jeff Sagarin in high on the pipe, too)

A mantra of football is that your team is supposed to get better as the season goes along.  That certainly is happening with Illinois; but the Spartans are going in the complete opposite direction, dropping like a rock.

Bum Phillips gave the ultimate compliment to good coaching: 

"He can beat his'n with your'n.  And he can beat your'n with his'n."

The one and only Bum Phillips, telling it like it is

Well, Bum certainly was not talking about coach Dantonio, who can't beat anyone with anyone's talent.  It has been a very disappointing season of playcalling on both sides of the ball, missed assignments, lack of a pass rush, dropped passes, poor quarterbacking.

Expect that to continue today vs the Illini:  until things fundamentally change, don't expect any Spartan improvement.  FYI: Illinois beat Wisconsin.  MSU lost to Wisconsin, 38-0.  'Nuff said.

Prognostications:

CHock:  MSU 12-10
Keith: MSU loses
Big Bob:  ILL 17-10
Sloth: 40,000 empty seats, and a lot of boos. 27-6, tRed Granges.
RGM3: 27-10 MSU. We somehow cover.
Big Joe and Phantom 309: 14-6. The defense remains stout and the offense manages to score one TD.
GVSU Gregger: MSU 21-17
Queen Kat:  MSU 17-10

ES sez:  Illinois 21, MSU 17.

TOILET BOWL Saturday: Michigan State vs Illinois

MSU 2-6/0-5. Illinois 2-6/1-4
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #61, Illinois #85

Saturday, November 5, 2016.
12:00 pm ET.
Memorial Stadium, Champaign-Urbana, IL
Weather: 60 degrees, partly cloudy
TV: ESPN News.

Line: MSU by 8 (really?)

Oh my, how the mighty have fallen.  We BIG GREEN NATION are playing at Noon today, on ESPN... News.  LOL.  'Nuff said.

Well, a six-game losing streak ain't much fun.  Today's game is do-or-die for a bowl; but we can call today's game the Toilet Bowl.  Whoever loses is the crap of the Big Ten this season.

Last week, the ES just didn't understand why coach D didn't start Lewerke - if there is one fault of Dantonio, it is that he is too loyal.  Lewerke moves the offense, he has better vision and makes better decisions.  The team gets a shot of jet fuel with him in.  Bummer for us, because...  with Lewerke out for the season with a broken leg, coach D doesn't have many options. However, Tyler O'Connor is not a winner.  He just cannot make the good throw and just can't get it done.  The offense is lethargic with TO behind center.

The ES would play Damion Terry the rest of the season; why not give him the work?  At least he has another year of eligibility.

ES sez:  MSU 38, Chief Illiniwek 28
Ronnie:  MSU 28-24
Brock:  Illinois 19-17
Rick:  MSU 31-21
Carly:  MSU 21-10

MSU favored by 3-1/2 vs Michigan; Daily Illini on Spartans: "let all the ugliness out"

Notably, #24 Michigan State is a very early 3-1/2 point favorite over the #23 Wolverines next week in the game of the year in EL.  Indiana is favored by 7 at home over Minnesota. Nebraska is favored by 7 at home over Northwestern. #22 Wisconsin is favored by 7 at Iowa. Penn State is favored by 10 at home over Illinois.  And, #4 Ohio State is favored by, gulp, 31 at Purdue.

As for yesterday... Wow.  The ES heard a bit of the game on the radio, but looking at the statistics from the Spartans' 42-3 punishment of Illinois was impressive.  At a place that claims itself as the originator of the first collegiate homecoming, the Illini faithful likely should have waltzed passed Memorial Stadium, as it was the sight of an embarrassing whipping courtesy of Michigan State.  As written by the Daily Illini, "It was a few plays here and there that slowly peeled the lid off this game and let all the ugliness out."  An ugly homecoming at Illinois.  Beautiful.
 
The Spartans finishing their last six possessions with TDs?  Wow. A goal-line defensive stand turning into a 99-yard TD drive?  Well, golly! Cook 15-of 16 for 208 yards with 3 TDs.  Langford with 104 of Michigan State's Pound-Green-Pound 269-25 rushing yardage advantage.  The vastly-underrated but oft-important statistic of domination -- third down conversion -- was, 14-of-16???  Is that a typo?  And, nearly double the possession time (39 to 21 minutes).  My God.  Wow.  And, the defensive stats are even more impressive.  Giving up just 128 total yards (25 on rushing).  Total of 477-128 total  yards.  Ouch.  This is a defining performance that should finally vault MSU into the top 25 (posting update: MSU is in the AP Poll at #24, see bottom of this post).  Stats are below.

	MSU	ILL
1st Downs	29	8
Total Yards	477	128
Passing	208	103
Rushing	269	25
Penalties	5-34	7-66
3rd Down Conversions	14-16	3-10
4th Down Conversions	0-0	0-1
Turnovers	1	2
Possession	39:06	20:54

Associated Press Top 25 - week of Oct 27, 2013

RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Alabama (55)	8-0	1495
2	Oregon (3)	8-0	1432
3	Florida State (2)	7-0	1390
4	Ohio State	8-0	1317
5	Baylor	7-0	1223
6	Stanford	7-1	1189
7	Miami (FL)	7-0	1149
8	Auburn	7-1	1022
9	Clemson	7-1	1007
10	Missouri	7-1	873
11	LSU	7-2	818
12	Texas A&M	6-2	811
13	Oklahoma	7-1	791
14	South Carolina	6-2	701
15	Texas Tech	7-1	579
16	Fresno State	7-0	510
17	UCLA	5-2	489
18	Oklahoma State	6-1	483
19	UCF	6-1	464
20	Louisville	7-1	417
21	Northern Illinois	8-0	290
22	Wisconsin	5-2	262
23	Michigan	6-1	199
24	Michigan State	7-1	166
25	Arizona State	5-2	133

• Dropped from rankings: Virginia Tech 16, Nebraska 25

• Others receiving votes: Notre Dame 132, Georgia 24, Brigham Young 22, Texas 22, Ole Miss 21, Virginia Tech 20, Oregon State 17, Florida 14, Washington 6, Minnesota 4, Ball State 4, Arizona 2, Duke 2

Michigan State a 13 point fave at Illinois after 14-0 blanking of Purdue; MSU defense ranks #1!!!!

The 6-1/3-0 Michigan State Spartans, fresh off their blanking of Purdue, and will likely crack the Top 25 when the polls are announced,  are an early 13 point favorite at 3-3/0-2 Illinois according to the early Vegas line.  Iowa is favored by 3 home over Northwestern; Nebraska by 8-1/2 at Minnesota; Ohio State by 14-1/2 home over Penn State.

The Spartans shutout Purdue, 14-0, in what was the ugliest performance from Connor Cook this season.  Michigan State's defense gave up a few big plays between the 20s, but did not allow Purdue to get any closer than the 25 yard line all game long - that is ZERO red zone opportunities for the Boilermakers.  The Spartan defense gave up just 226 total yards, just 66 rushing yards on 34 attempts (1.9 average).  Max Bullough's stat sheet lit up like a XMas tree: 10 tackles, 2 for loss, 1 forced fumble (returned for a TD), 1 sack, and 1 QB hurry.  Nice.

Spartan RB Jeremy Langford looked very good, running for 131 yards on 24 carries (5.5 average).  State had 182 yards on the ground.  The offensive line opened up some nice holes all game long.

As for our QB, Cook wasn't close to having an INT... he wasn't close to hitting on half of his throws.  Cook looked terrible and consistently missed wide open receivers on third down.  Heck, even though the Spartan offense looked good on its only TD drive, a 9-play 73 yard drive in the 4th quarter, Cook didn't throw the TD pass... it was WR Tony Lippett throwing the pass on an end around.   Cook was 13-of-25 for 107 yards.  Before that final drive, Cook had just 33 yards passing on the day. The ES would give Cook a "D" grade for his performance on Saturday.  Two steps forward, one step back for Cook.

	PUR	MSU
1st Downs	14	21
3rd down efficiency	5-15	5-13
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-1
Total Yards	226	294
Passing	160	112
Comp-Att	14-25	14-26
Yards per pass	6.4	4.3
Rushing	66	182
Rushing Attempts	34	41
Yards per rush	1.9	4.4
Penalties	3-30	2-14
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	28:59	31:01

Statistically, MSU's defense is certainly the best in the nation. Through Oct 19 games, this is where Michigan State ranks nationally:

Category,  Rank,  Statistic
Total Defense, #1, 228.0 ypg
Rushing Defense, #1, 59.1 ypg
Passing Yards Allowed, #4, 168.9 ypg
Team Passing Efficiency Defense, #1, 88.41
Scoring Defense, #4, 13.6 ppg
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, #3, 27.3%
First Downs Defense, #1, 13.4 pg
Time of Possession, #4, 34:11

The ES has gotta print the Big Ten standings, with Michigan State on top of the Legends through the first three Big Ten games.

Big Ten - Legends	CONF	OVERALL
* - Michigan State	3-0	6-1
Nebraska	2-0	5-1
* - Michigan	2-1	6-1
Iowa	1-2	4-3
Minnesota	1-2	5-2
Northwestern	0-3	4-3
Big Ten - Leaders	CONF	OVERALL
* - Ohio State	3-0	7-0
Wisconsin	3-1	5-2
x - Penn State	1-1	4-2
Indiana	1-2	3-4
Illinois	0-2	3-3
Purdue	0-3	1-6

And, here are some nice photos by the ES of Saturday's victory over the Boilermakers.  After the first quarter, it stopped raining and turned out to be a beautiful, 55-and sunny fall game.  Indeed, the weather was nicer than the Spartan offense....

Second quarter backed up on our 10...

 Second quarter struggles...

 Beginning to see some sunlight...

 

 Third quarter defense bends bud doesn't break...

 4th quarter lineup for our only offensive TD...

Defense + Lucas help Spartans surge in back stretch, fueled by 61-57 win over Illini...

MSU wins 61-57 after a gritty performance over Illinois. MSU is now 15-11/7-7. The ES is bullish on the Spartans, trending up as they get back to basics (defense, inside game, rebounding) and heal. Anytime Delvon Roe is in the game, Spartans play grittier, smarter, and just better defense. And, Lucas is hitting his stride, playing like an All-American on both sides of the floor.

MSU vs opp last three games:

...................ILL...............Oh St............. Penn St
W/L.......... W................. L.................... W
K. Lucas:.. 25 pts.......... 14 pts........... 24 pts
Score:....... 61-57........... 61-71............ 75-57
Rebs:........ 38-30.......... 30-22........... 38-23
FG%:........ 42%-37%.... 57%-43%..... 52%-41%

Next up: @ Minn, vs Purdue, vs Iowa, @ Mich. The ES predicts 3 out of 4, and a 18-12/10-8 fourth place finish into the Big Ten and NCAA tourney.

ES predicts Michigan State-Illinois with ESPN Game Day in town

Michigan State's biggest game of the year is tonight, and ESPN Game Day crew is in town. Michigan State (14-11/6-7) must defeat Illinois (17-9/7-6) at home if it is to have any chance at the NCAA Tournament. It is a must game, and the Spartan Nation, coach Izzo, and the players know it. Longtime Lansing tv/radio pundit Tim Staudt noted a likely 16-18 point Big Green win before it is all said and done. The ES predicts: Michigan State 79, Illinois 65.

Michigan State is a 2-1/2 point favorite over Illinois.
RPI Ratings: Illinois #39, Michigan State #47
Jeff Sagarin: Illinois #25, Michigan State #40
Bracketology: Illinois #8 Southeast, Michigan State #12 West
TV: ESPN, 9 pm EST.
Breslin Center, East Lansing

ESPN Game Day today is at Michigan State. Here are some embedded video below and links to their positive commentary on the Spartans - Bracketology, Digger Phelps Coaches' Corner, Hubert Davis Breslin Center Home Court Advantage... Hubert says: "Go GREEN!"

MSU thumps Illinois, 26-6, behind stout defense. PHOTOSTREAM

Well, the ES wasn't that far off. What a DOMINATING performance, particularly defensively in the second half. Jerel Worthy, William Gholston, and Tyler Hoover played very well along the D-line; Greg Jones, Marcus Hyde, and Eric Gordon were SWARMING from their LB spots; and, the DBs played EXCEPTIONAL FOOTBALL... with 3 picks and forcing a fumble. New DB Darqueze Dennard played fantastic for suspended Chris Rucker.

Outstanding football game. See photos below. Actor Gerard Butler was in the house (star of movie "300") and just loved it -- leading the crowd in chants of 'What is your profession? Hooo - hooo - hooo". Just amazing.

We are 7-0 for the first time IN MY LIFETIME. BCS comes out at 8:15 pm tonight, and the ES predicts MSU at #8. Big Ten championship HERE WE COME!

ES prediction: Michigan State vs Illinois

MSU hosting Illinois for Homecoming
12 noon kickoff
Big Ten Network
58 degrees, sunny

ES sez: Michigan State 27, Illinois 17

Spartans miss Lucas in 78-73 loss at Illinois

Well, you could definitely see the difference that Kalin Lucas makes to the team in last night's 78-73 loss at Illinois. With Lucas, Michigan State would have cut down on the senseless turnovers and had the clutch shot at the end.

Give Illinois credit, they hit lots of big shots. Draymond Green (17 pts, 16 rebs) had the best game of his career... but Summers and particularly Raymar Morgan need to show up for MSU to win. But, there was MSU hanging in to the end.

Next up: the biggest game of the season, welcoming 7-3 Purdue into town on Tuesday, 9 pm. The Spartans lead is now down to one game.... time to get Lucas back onto the court and win baby!

Live chat: MSU at Illinois

MSU at Illinois. Tipoff in minutes. ESPN Game Day with Dickie V and Jay Bilas is in Champaign. Lucas is OUT tonight, in street clothes.

Danger Will Robinson: the Spartans are coming!

The Big Green gets Big Test #2 on the road tonight, a 9 pm tipoff at Illinois. Game will be broadcast on ESPN. The Spartans are favored by 1.5, and are coming off their best practice sessions of the year: arguably inspired by the loss of their leader, All-American Kalin Lucas.

Ken Pomeroy has MSU pegged at #22 with Illinois at #55. Meanwhile, Jeff Sagarin lists MSU at #14 and Illinois at #71. Here's the ESPN notebook on keys to tonight's game: Raymar Morgan, Korie Lucious, and Draymond Green.

MSU has won the last five meetings, including the last two at Assembly Hall, each by eight points: 74-66 and 59-51. None of the last 13 games have been decided by less than 6 points. Yes, if you look outside at Assembly Hall it is probably the uglist arena in the Big Ten: it looks like the Jupiter 2, the Robinson's spaceship from Lost in Space.

"That is a quality program there boys": Illini on Michigan State

Michigan State totally dominated Illinois today, just crushed 'em, with a 73-63 victory. Illini 4-0 record coming in was deceiving, and their NW-Ind-Iowa-JoePa run was exposed. We showed UI how to really play basketball. We kicked their arse! up by as many as 23 late in the game when Izzo decided to lay low. It wuz ALL DEFENSE, baby, just suffocating!

What do the Illini faithful say? Well... read this - from DRS on IlliniTalk:

Painful game to watch after the first 10 minutes. To open the offense was great. Motion, motion, motion. throw in Griffey's burst, that was nice to see, and they was rolling. But, the team caved in. Players began to go one and one and Mich St extending out on the defensive. Illinois attempted to go down low to Davis who looked befuddled again down on the block and they really started to miss Tisdale's presence. Mich St. did the rest.

Roe kept them in it early, Morgan built the lead and Lucas sealed the deal. That is a quality program there boys. Illinois should aspire to be that disciplined and professional. even when they were down they kept running their sets getting good looks and the shots started to fall. Outclassed straight up and down. Morgan was the player of the game, the commentators gushed about everybody else but his influence and call game was the difference. I hope Davis can look like that his senior year, gotta long way to go.

Big Ten Standings: MSU on Top

Here are your Big Ten men's basketball standings, as it should be - with Big Green on top. Next to be slain: Illinois (Saturday, 3:30 pm, CBS).

Standings	Conference				Overall
	W	L	GB	PCT	W	L	PCT
#7 - Michigan St	4	0	-	1.000	14	3	.824
Illinois	4	0	-	1.000	12	5	.706
#13 - Wisconsin	4	1	½	.800	14	3	.824
Minnesota	3	2	1½	.600	12	5	.706
Michigan	3	2	1½	.600	9	7	.563
#6 - Purdue	2	2	2	.500	14	2	.875
Ohio State	2	3	2½	.400	12	5	.706
Northwestern	1	3	3	.250	12	4	.750
Indiana	1	3	3	.250	7	9	.438
Penn State	0	4	4	.000	8	8	.500
Iowa	0	4	4	.000	6	11	.353