Showing posts with label TCU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TCU. Show all posts

Monday, December 31, 2012

22 more thoughts from the ES on MSU over TCU in B-Dubs Bowl

In no particular order, below are some more concrete thoughts from the 2012 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl victory.  The ES' original comments posted at 2 am (and refined by 11 am) are also available linking here

1.    Peanut Barrell – packed at kickoff; the first half was so awful to watch, the place was 80% empty by halftime… it was also just past midnight. 
2.    ES and Big Bob closed the Barrell. When the game ended, there was noone else in the bar, if you can believe it. Center of the universe, and it’s Big Bob and the ES that remain standing.
3.    First three quarters of offense were a disaster for MSU – Roushar had no idea what to do or to call, complete lack of rhythm by the offense and the play calling. In the first half, it was as poor of an offensive performance all year by the Spartans.  Reminded the ES of the game vs Notre Dame.
4.    Great time management at end of game by MD.  The ES was very impressed at how the Doctor called timeouts to stop the clock during TCU’s drive for a field goal – with MSU’s offense playing as poorly as it had, the Spartans needed as much time as possible to get down the field to have a chance to win.
5.    Maxwell unable to make good, quick decisions – throughout the game he had difficulty in figuring out what to do, either in the pocket or on the run.  His 6-for-16 efficiency is a reflection of his difficulties (and good TCU defense combined with spotty pass protection).  However, the few times he DID make a good decision…
6.    Dropped passes were not Maxwell’s fault.  Lippett, Burbridge, and Mumphrey all dropped passes at times when Maxwell had nice throws, or when he was under pressure.  The timing of the drops, particularly on third down, was poor and killed drives. Still...
7.    Connor Cook ran better, and had more zip on his throws.  He just looked better.  He was in charge.
8.    When MSU did throw to its TEs and RBs, it certainly proved most effective. Sims had three catches, each of them were huge; of the 11 receptions, six were by TEs and RBs.
9.    The only throw downfield that I can recall was the throw by Bell to Hammock for 29 yards; when your RB has the longest pass play of the game, it means you have major issues at QB. Offensive coordinator Dan Roushar just did a poor job of calling plays to get his WRs and TEs open and downfield.  However, WRs also need to be able to break free and find ways to get open, and often they just gave up on their routes. But, a coach should change his scheming based on what he knows of his teams' strengths and weaknesses.  The bowl game continued the frustrating reality that Roushar all season has had a tough time accepting the fact that this year's passing game is about 10% as effective as under Kirk Cousins.
10.    The MSU offensive line held up well on last drive, but did not play well in pass protection for most of the game.  As mentioned earlier, Maxwell’s issues were not all his fault; it is a team game… but Maxwell just is not talented enough to overcome other deficiencies and make plays when absolutely necessary.  Dantonio's call to put in Cook when it mattered most was a good move - yet another ballsy, risky move that paid off for MD in his Spartan tenure.
11.    The Spartan defensive line was stiff and mean, particularly in second half.  Remarkable how consistently terrific MSU defense was. Other than the first TD drive by TCU, the Frogs barely had room to run all day.
12.    Marcus Rush, Denicos Allen, Will Gholston played extremely well. Max Bullough played well.  This defense makes me want to cry for joy.
13.    TCU’s pair of deep throws that were successful were a result of Spartan safeties taking a risk going for the ball… and missing.  On the other hand, catching up from the miss and tackling the Frog receivers before they scored resulted in TCU settling for FGs instead of TDs.
14.    Sadler punted amazingly well for MSU.  If not for Bell, Sadler probably was the MVP for the Spartans because of his ability to flip the field – and the booming 55-yard punt that led to the late TCU turnover turned into a TD for MSU. 
15.    TCU gave MSU a gift with its muffed punt as a fumble deep in Spartan territory – the 2-0 difference in turnovers was the difference in the game
16.    ES predicted 17-14; ended up 17-16… pretty close.
17.   No need to say much about LeVeon Bell - just the best RB to come out of MSU since Lorenzo White.  He was nothing short of incredible all game, and particularly in the second half.   He accounted for 77% of MSU's offense (174 of 227 yards). 
18.    MSU held TCU to 69 total yards and three points in the second half.  Just total, complete domination.
19.    Shame to see such an amazing defense supported by such a terrible offense all year, and the B-Dubs bowl was the perfect example.
20.    What a great defense to watch all year – dominating, best since the Rose Bowl year of 1987-88.  Who is returning?  Graduating are Johnny Adams, Tyler Hoover, Anthony Rashad White, and Chris Norman.   But when you look at the depth… oh my, this has the makings of another outstanding group to lead the Big Ten in defense next year.
21.    Pat Narduzzi may land a job somewhere…. But what decent job is open?  Purdue would have been a great fit. But, let’s hope for Spartans’ sake he sticks around another year or three.
22.  Finally, let's compare the MSU drive chart for the first half and the TCU drive chart for the second half.  Remarkably terrible.

MSU      1st M28  15:00  Kickoff       M31  12:56  Punt           3-3    2:04
MSU      1st M20  11:52  Punt          M24  10:16  Punt           3-4    1:36
MSU      1st M25  05:45  Kickoff       M47  02:12  Punt           6-22   3:33
MSU      2nd M32  13:19  Kickoff       M48  11:13  Punt           5-16   2:06
MSU      2nd M12  08:09  Kickoff       M33  05:42  Punt           6-21   2:27
MSU      2nd M36  03:48  Interception  M41  02:20  Punt           3-5    1:28
MSU      2nd M47  01:19  Punt          T48  00:09  Punt           3-5    1:10
TCU      3rd T30  14:54  Kickoff       M49  12:07  Punt           5-21   2:47
TCU      3rd T35  08:42  Punt          T42  07:08  Punt           3-7    1:34
TCU      3rd T25  00:34  Kickoff       T34  14:04  Punt           3-9    1:30
TCU      4th T40  12:40  Punt          M39  10:26  Punt           4-21   2:14
TCU      4th T09  00:00  Punt          T04  07:13  Fumble         0--5   0:00
TCU      4th T30  06:53  Kickoff       T25  05:59  Punt           3--5   0:54
TCU      4th T36  04:26  Punt          M36  02:42 *FIELD GOAL     6-28   1:44
TCU      4th T30  00:55  Kickoff       T23  00:21  Downs          4--7   0:34

Friday, December 28, 2012

ES Game Day & LIVE CHAT: Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview

Michigan State vs Texas Christian
LIVE CHAT ON ES WEBSITE (available by 9 PM)

MSU Spartans (# 40 Sagarin, 6-6/3-5), TCU Horned Frogs (# 27 Sagarin, 7-5/3-5)
December 29, 2012.  10:15 pm ET.
TV: ESPN
Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Weather: 60 degrees, clear skies.
Latest line:  TCU favored by 2-1/2

Predictions: 


ES sez:  LIVE CHAT!  The ES will have a live chat on his blog during the B-Dubs game, so tune it!  A more indepth preview will  be up by Saturday, but a defense battle and inept offenses mean…  MSU 17, TCU 14.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

ES Game Day preview status

ES preview for Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - the ES is traveling, and may or may not be able to get a complete preview up to the ES website in time for the game. However, there may be a blog posting for this. Stay tuned. But, if I were to make an early prediction, it would be based on a battle of defenses and mistake-prone offenses: Michigan State 17, TCU 14.

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

TCU favored by 2 1/2 over Michigan State in B-Dubs Bowl; Gifts to players; Bielema to Arkansas


The Michigan State Spartans (6-6/3-5) are 2-1/2 pt underdogs vs Texas Christian (7-5/4-5 Big 12) in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.  Kickoff is on Dec. 29 at 10:15 pm ET... which is great, because the ES will be returning late from Indianapolis on that date.

VEGAS ODDS
The over-under for the B-Dubs bowl is 41-1/2 points.  Other games of note:
  • Western Kentucky is favored by 6 over CMU in the Little Caesars Bowl (Dec. 26)
  • Texas Tech is favored by 13 over Minnesota in the Meineke Car Care Bowl (Dec. 28)
  • Oklahoma State is favored by 17 over Purdue in the Heart of Dallas Bowl (Jan. 1)
  • Mississippi State is favored by 2 over Northwestern in the Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl (Jan. 1)
  • South Carolina is favored by 4-1/2 over Michigan in the Outback Bowl (Jan. 1)
  • Stanford is favored by 6-1/2 over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
  • Georgia is favored by 10 over Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl (Jan. 1)
  • Alabama is favored by 9-1/2 over Notre Dame in the BCS Title Game (Jan. 7)
That's right, not one Big Ten team is favored... but if I were to pick one, I'd pick Northwestern, or Michigan State... 

CAN DANTONIO TELL TIME?  GIVE HIM A B-DUBS WATCH
Hopefully, there won't be any poor time management like earlier this season in the Iowa game as the team scrambled on and off the field before half, missing a FG opportunity.  The B-Dubs bowl is taking care of that, giving every player a Fossil Watch with an embroidered BWW logo, as well as a fancy backpack (each NCAA participant can claim up to $550 in benefits/prizes from a bowl game... the Wolverines get a $420 shopping spree at BestBuy for playing in the Capital One bowl). 


BRET BIELEMA TO ARKANSAS
And, can you believe Bielema jumping ship from Wisconsin to Arkansas?  That's what $3.2 million a year will buy you.  Bielema will replace interim John L. Smith... what a pair those two make.  ES never liked Bielema, moreso because he was such an idiot of a coach - a great recruiter, but just a poor X's and O's guy, and he's a terrible chess player.  Too bad, because MSU played Wisky pretty well and often took advantage of Bielema napping... 

Friday, January 08, 2010

What it feels like to be average: MSU and who?

How does it feel to be a Michigan State football fan compared to others? Who else is like us?

After yet another average (6-7) season for Michigan State, the ES started thinking.... how many other people feel the same way about their colleges, rooting their hearts out year after year after year... but really expecting not much. Who else has gone to their alma mater's football games since 1986, knowing their team likely has a 50-50 shot to win or lose every game, maybe have a chance at an upset or to be upset? How many people keep renewing their season tickets only to know that really, the end results will be the same - mediocrity. Which schools football team is always treading water, consistently, not sinking, but not swimming? Which teams from other conferences most closely resemble the mediocrity of Michigan State over the past 22 years?

Well, let us find out. The ES dug into some online statistical databases (thank you Chris Stassen and James Howell), and decided to use conference records instead of all-time records because membership in a conference is the best indicator of consistent level of competition, as is Michigan State's membership in the Big Ten since 1952. OK, there is an assumption here: Sure, some teams have joined or switched conferences (Boston College & Miami-Fla from Independent to Big Least to ACC; Louisville from Conference USA to Big Least; etc.); but, most teams are consistent over time. Yet, the ES argues the level of competition within a conference is roughly the same regardless of the level of competition across conferences. The Big Ten is far tougher than the WAC or Big East; but over time, MSU plays teams at a level of competition similar to their own within the Big Ten, as does who Utah State plays in the WAC, or who Syracuse plays in the Big East.

In the end, what I have provided below are those Division I-FBS teams within one variance (VAR=0.022) of Michigan State's average (.530) over the last 22 years, so these are teams' conference winning percentages between .552 to .508 since 1986. In BOLD are BCS-conference member teams, as is Michigan State.
  • Team - Conference. - Conf. Win %. - Games Played, W/L/T.
  • Northern Illinois - MAC. - .545. - 112 GP, 61, W, 51 L.
  • Georgia Tech - ACC. - .534. - 177 GP, 94 W, 82 L, 1 T.
  • Michigan State - Big Ten. - .530. - 184 GP, 96 W, 85 L, 3 T.
  • Syracuse - Big East. - .528. - 123 GP, 65 W, 58 L.
  • Boston College - ACC. - .528. - 127 GP, 66 W, 59 L, 2 T.
  • San Jose State - WAC. - .527. - 169 GP, 89 W, 80 L.
  • Central Michigan - MAC. - .521. - 188 GP, 95 W, 87 L, 6 T.
  • San Diego State - MWC. - .514. - 176 GP, 90 W, 85 O, 1 T.
  • Arizona State - Pac 10. - .514. - 182 GP, 92 W, 87 L, 3 T.
  • Texas Christian - MWC. - .511. - 176 GP, 90 W, 86 L.
  • Utah State - WAC. - .511. - 138 GP, 70 W, 67 L, 1 T.
  • Arkansas - SEC. - .508. - 185 GP, 93 W, 90 L, 2 T.
So, the ES has his answer. Since he first went to Michigan State as an undergrad in 1986, when comparing to other members of BCS-conferences (they have similar institution size and level of competition), the Spartan football fan base has similar frustrations to...

Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Arizona State, and Arkansas. Sounds about right, though I always thought we were closer to Texas A&M (but was way off, the Aggies are .667 since 1986; NC State is also close at .503).

This year how did these teams do? Funny, MSU is in the middle (again).
  • Georgia Tech - 11-2/7-1. Orange Bowl vs. Iowa tonight.
  • Boston College - 8-5/5-3. Emerald Bowl, Lost 24-13 to USC.
  • Arkansas - 8-5/3-5. Liberty Bowl, Won 20-17 (OT) vs East Carolina.
  • Michigan State - 6-7/4-4. Alamo Bowl, Lost 41-31 to Texas Tech.
  • Arizona State - 4-8/2-7.
  • Syracuse - 4-8/1-6.
Yeah, that's about right. What do you think?