Big Ten schedule strength: Illinois is Biggest Wimp; Michigan State schedules strong The Enlightened Spartan: Big Ten schedule strength: Illinois is Biggest Wimp; Michigan State schedules strong

Sunday, August 05, 2012

Big Ten schedule strength: Illinois is Biggest Wimp; Michigan State schedules strong

Scheduling Charleston Southern? Gotta sell tickets somehow!
What is the top cupcake schedule in the Big Ten, and what school should be rewarded by having the most competitive schedule?    The ES looks at this every year, and prefers using Jeff Sagarin’s ratings from the previous year… because, it is the only rating system that includes all Division I-FCS team rankings with Division I-FBS rankings.  Because playing inferior FCS teams is becoming more commonplace among Big Ten teams, trying to see how they rank compared to FBS opponents provides an interesting unit of measure of schedule strength.    

Michigan State has a decent schedule overall, fourth toughest in the Big Ten, scheduling against an average opponent rank of 59.5  The matchups against CMU and EMU are gimme-victories; but, bulking up against Boise State and ND make up for scheduling these other sins.  The braggadocios down the road scheduled defending national champ 'Bama, giving them the toughest schedule.

Ranking schedules by team, and legends (L) have 5 of the 6 most difficult schedules in the Big Ten heading into 2012.

1. Michigan 54.3 L
2. Nebraska 55.6 L
3. Penn St. 58.6
4. Mich St. 59.5 L
5. Minnesota 60.3 L
6. Iowa 62.0 L
7. Ohio St. 62.6
8. Indiana 63.9
9. Northwestern 63.1
10. Purdue 66.7
11. Wisconsin 66.8
12. Illinois 70.8

WIMPY ILLINOIS GETS THE CUPCAKE NOD: Looking at Sagarin, the ES is most offended by Illinois, scheduling woeful Charleston Southern in week three.  The Buccaneers sported a lovely 0-11 record last year as a member of the Big South.  Their schedule is anything but a strength, a conference-worst 70.8 average.

SOME DANDY MATCHUPS:  The best non-conference matchups for 2012 jumped right out.  Get tickets to these games.   These were placed in order by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams. 

1. Nebraska (25) vs S Miss (24).  -1.
2. MSU (18) vs ND (26).  +8.
3. MSU (18) vs Boise St (9). -9.
4. Mich (11) vs Alabama (1). -10.
5. Ohio St (49) vs Cal (38). -11.
6. Mich (11) at ND (26). +15.
7. Purdue (65) at ND (26). -39.

PATHETIC CUPCAKE SCHEDULING ABOUNDS.  The most pathetic non-conference matchups for 2012 were determined by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams.  Each of these institutions should be ashamed for scheduling down to such low levels.

1. Illinois (55) vs Charleston Southern (237). +182.
2. Nebraska (25) vs Idaho St (205). +180.
3. Mich (11) vs UMass (150). +139.
4. MSU (18) at CMU (137). +119.
5. Ohio St (49) vs UAB (152). +103
6-t. Purdue (65) vs E. Kentucky (153). +88.
6-t. Iowa (45) vs CMU (137). + 88.
8. Minn (88) at UNLV (155). +67.

PLAYING WAY DOWN TO ANOTHER LEVEL: Notably, there are eight games against Division I-FCS institutions in the Big Ten this fall: Northern Iowa (#75) is lucky to schedule two Big Ten teams, vs Iowa and vs Wisconsin, New Hampshire (#120) vs Minnesota, Idaho State (#205) vs Nebraska; South Dakota (#130) vs Northwestern; Charleston Southern (#237) vs Illinois; Indiana State (#117) vs Indiana; and, Eastern Kentucky (#153) vs Purdue.

FULL SCHEDULE STRENGTH LISTING:  Below, here are the schedules for each of the teams in the big ten, and their final Sagarin ranking from 2011 next to the name of each team, followed by the schedule strength (SS) average.

-----LEGENDS-----

IOWA (#45, SS# 62.0)
      
1-Sep    vs N Ill    47
8-Sep    Iowa St    53
15-Sep    N Iowa    75
22-Sep    CMU    137
29-Sep    Minn    88
6-Oct      
13-Oct    at MSU    18
20-Oct    Penn St    28
27-Oct    at NW    58
3-Nov    at Ind    139
10-Nov    Pur    65
17-Nov    at Mich    11
24-Nov    Neb    25

MICH (#11, SS# 54.3)
      
1-Sep    vs Alabama    1
8-Sep    Air Force    72
15-Sep    Umass    150
22-Sep    at ND    26
29-Sep      
6-Oct    at Purdue    65
13-Oct    Ill    55
20-Oct    MSU    18
27-Oct    at Neb    25
3-Nov    at Minn    88
10-Nov    NW    58
17-Nov    Iowa    45
24-Nov    at Oh St    49

MICH STATE (#18, SS# 59.5)
      
1-Sep    Boise St    9
8-Sep    at CMU    137
15-Sep    ND    26
22-Sep    EMU    119
29-Sep    Oh St    49
6-Oct    at Ind    139
13-Oct    Iowa    45
20-Oct    at Mich    11
27-Oct    at Wis    8
3-Nov    Neb    25
10-Nov      
17-Nov    NW    58
24-Nov    at Minn    88

MINN   (#88, SS# 60.3)
      
1-Sep    at UNLV    155
8-Sep    New Hampshire    120
15-Sep    WMU    78
22-Sep    Syr    86
29-Sep    at Iowa    45
6-Oct      
13-Oct    NW    58
20-Oct    at Wisc    8
27-Oct    Purdue    65
3-Nov    Mich    11
10-Nov    at ill    55
17-Nov    at Neb    25
24-Nov    MSU    18

NEBRASKA (#25, SS# 55.6)
      
1-Sep    S Miss    24
8-Sep    at UCLA    66
15-Sep    Ark St    67
22-Sep    Idaho St    205
29-Sep    Wisc    8
6-Oct    at Oh St    49
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at NW    58
27-Oct    Mich    11
3-Nov    at MSU    18
10-Nov    Penn St    28
17-Nov    Minn    88
24-Nov    at Iowa    45

NORTHWESTERN (#58, SS# 63.1)
      
1-Sep    at Syracuse    86
8-Sep    Vandy    42
15-Sep    BC    90
22-Sep    S Dakota    130
29-Sep    Indiana    139
6-Oct    at Penn St    28
13-Oct    at Minn    88
20-Oct    Neb    25
27-Oct    Iowa    45
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Mich    11
17-Nov    at MSU    18
24-Nov    Illinois    55

-----LEADERS
-----

ILLINOIS (#55, SS# 70.8)
      
1-Sep    WMU    78
8-Sep    at Ariz St    41
15-Sep    Char Southern  237
22-Sep    La Tech    48
29-Sep    Penn St    28
6-Oct    at Wisc    8
13-Oct    at Mich    11
20-Oct      
27-Oct    Indiana    139
3-Nov    at Oh St    49
10-Nov    Minn    88
17-Nov    Purdue    65
24-Nov    at NW    58

INDIANA (#139, SS# 63.9)
      
1-Sep    Ind St    117
8-Sep    at Umass    150
15-Sep    Ball St    100
22-Sep      
29-Sep    at NW    58
6-Oct    MSU    18
13-Oct    Oh St    49
20-Oct    at Navy    74
27-Oct    at Ill    55
3-Nov    Iowa    45
10-Nov    Wisc    8
17-Nov    at Penn St    28
24-Nov    at Pur    65

OHIO ST  (#49, SS# 62.6)
      
1-Sep    Miami OH    98
8-Sep    C Fla    77
15-Sep    Cal    38
22-Sep    UAB    152
29-Sep    at MSU    18
6-Oct    Neb  
13-Oct    at Ind    139
20-Oct    Pur    65
27-Oct    at Penn St    28
3-Nov    Ill    55
10-Nov      
17-Nov    at Wisc    8
24-Nov    Mich    11

PENN ST (#28, SS# 58.6)
      
1-Sep    Ohio    68
8-Sep    at Va    71
15-Sep    Navy    74
22-Sep    Temple    46
29-Sep    at Ill    55
6-Oct    NW    58
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at Iowa    45
27-Oct    Oh St    49
3-Nov    at Pur    65
10-Nov    at Neb    25
17-Nov    Ind    139
24-Nov    Wisc    8

PURDUE (#65, SS# 66.7)
      
1-Sep    E Ky    153
8-Sep    at ND    26
15-Sep    EMU    119
22-Sep      
29-Sep    Marshall    79
6-Oct    Mich    11
13-Oct    Wisc    8
20-Oct    at OSU    49
27-Oct    at Minn    88
3-Nov    Penn St    28
10-Nov    at Iowa    45
17-Nov    at Ill    55
24-Nov    Ind    139

WISCONSIN (#8, SS# 66.8)
      
1-Sep    N Iowa    75
8-Sep    at Oreg St    87
15-Sep    Utah St    80
22-Sep    UTEP    92
29-Sep    at Neb    25
6-Oct    Ill    55
13-Oct    at Pur    65
20-Oct    Minn    88
27-Oct    MSU    18
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Ind    139
17-Nov    Oh St    49
24-Nov    at Penn St    28