Big Ten schedule strength: Illinois is Biggest Wimp; Michigan State schedules strong

Scheduling Charleston Southern? Gotta sell tickets somehow!

What is the top cupcake schedule in the Big Ten, and what school should be rewarded by having the most competitive schedule?    The ES looks at this every year, and prefers using Jeff Sagarin’s ratings from the previous year… because, it is the only rating system that includes all Division I-FCS team rankings with Division I-FBS rankings.  Because playing inferior FCS teams is becoming more commonplace among Big Ten teams, trying to see how they rank compared to FBS opponents provides an interesting unit of measure of schedule strength.    

Michigan State has a decent schedule overall, fourth toughest in the Big Ten, scheduling against an average opponent rank of 59.5  The matchups against CMU and EMU are gimme-victories; but, bulking up against Boise State and ND make up for scheduling these other sins.  The braggadocios down the road scheduled defending national champ 'Bama, giving them the toughest schedule.

Ranking schedules by team, and legends (L) have 5 of the 6 most difficult schedules in the Big Ten heading into 2012.

1. Michigan 54.3 L

2. Nebraska 55.6 L

3. Penn St. 58.6

4. Mich St. 59.5 L

5. Minnesota 60.3 L

6. Iowa 62.0 L

7. Ohio St. 62.6

8. Indiana 63.9

9. Northwestern 63.1

10. Purdue 66.7

11. Wisconsin 66.8

12. Illinois 70.8

WIMPY ILLINOIS GETS THE CUPCAKE NOD: Looking at Sagarin, the ES is most offended by Illinois, scheduling woeful Charleston Southern in week three.  The Buccaneers sported a lovely 0-11 record last year as a member of the Big South.  Their schedule is anything but a strength, a conference-worst 70.8 average.

SOME DANDY MATCHUPS:  The best non-conference matchups for 2012 jumped right out.  Get tickets to these games.   These were placed in order by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams. 

1. Nebraska (25) vs S Miss (24).  -1.

2. MSU (18) vs ND (26).  +8.

3. MSU (18) vs Boise St (9). -9.

4. Mich (11) vs Alabama (1). -10.

5. Ohio St (49) vs Cal (38). -11.

6. Mich (11) at ND (26). +15.

7. Purdue (65) at ND (26). -39.

PATHETIC CUPCAKE SCHEDULING ABOUNDS.  The most pathetic non-conference matchups for 2012 were determined by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams.  Each of these institutions should be ashamed for scheduling down to such low levels.

1. Illinois (55) vs Charleston Southern (237). +182.

2. Nebraska (25) vs Idaho St (205). +180.

3. Mich (11) vs UMass (150). +139.

4. MSU (18) at CMU (137). +119.

5. Ohio St (49) vs UAB (152). +103

6-t. Purdue (65) vs E. Kentucky (153). +88.

6-t. Iowa (45) vs CMU (137). + 88.

8. Minn (88) at UNLV (155). +67.

PLAYING WAY DOWN TO ANOTHER LEVEL: Notably, there are eight games against Division I-FCS institutions in the Big Ten this fall: Northern Iowa (#75) is lucky to schedule two Big Ten teams, vs Iowa and vs Wisconsin, New Hampshire (#120) vs Minnesota, Idaho State (#205) vs Nebraska; South Dakota (#130) vs Northwestern; Charleston Southern (#237) vs Illinois; Indiana State (#117) vs Indiana; and, Eastern Kentucky (#153) vs Purdue.

FULL SCHEDULE STRENGTH LISTING:  Below, here are the schedules for each of the teams in the big ten, and their final Sagarin ranking from 2011 next to the name of each team, followed by the schedule strength (SS) average.

-----LEGENDS-----

IOWA (#45, SS# 62.0)
      
1-Sep    vs N Ill    47
8-Sep    Iowa St    53
15-Sep    N Iowa    75
22-Sep    CMU    137
29-Sep    Minn    88
6-Oct      
13-Oct    at MSU    18
20-Oct    Penn St    28
27-Oct    at NW    58
3-Nov    at Ind    139
10-Nov    Pur    65
17-Nov    at Mich    11
24-Nov    Neb    25

MICH (#11, SS# 54.3)
      
1-Sep    vs Alabama    1
8-Sep    Air Force    72
15-Sep    Umass    150
22-Sep    at ND    26
29-Sep      
6-Oct    at Purdue    65
13-Oct    Ill    55
20-Oct    MSU    18
27-Oct    at Neb    25
3-Nov    at Minn    88
10-Nov    NW    58
17-Nov    Iowa    45
24-Nov    at Oh St    49

MICH STATE (#18, SS# 59.5)
      
1-Sep    Boise St    9
8-Sep    at CMU    137
15-Sep    ND    26
22-Sep    EMU    119
29-Sep    Oh St    49
6-Oct    at Ind    139
13-Oct    Iowa    45
20-Oct    at Mich    11
27-Oct    at Wis    8
3-Nov    Neb    25
10-Nov      
17-Nov    NW    58
24-Nov    at Minn    88

MINN   (#88, SS# 60.3)
      
1-Sep    at UNLV    155
8-Sep    New Hampshire    120
15-Sep    WMU    78
22-Sep    Syr    86
29-Sep    at Iowa    45
6-Oct      
13-Oct    NW    58
20-Oct    at Wisc    8
27-Oct    Purdue    65
3-Nov    Mich    11
10-Nov    at ill    55
17-Nov    at Neb    25
24-Nov    MSU    18

NEBRASKA (#25, SS# 55.6)
      
1-Sep    S Miss    24
8-Sep    at UCLA    66
15-Sep    Ark St    67
22-Sep    Idaho St    205
29-Sep    Wisc    8
6-Oct    at Oh St    49
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at NW    58
27-Oct    Mich    11
3-Nov    at MSU    18
10-Nov    Penn St    28
17-Nov    Minn    88
24-Nov    at Iowa    45

NORTHWESTERN (#58, SS# 63.1)
      
1-Sep    at Syracuse    86
8-Sep    Vandy    42
15-Sep    BC    90
22-Sep    S Dakota    130
29-Sep    Indiana    139
6-Oct    at Penn St    28
13-Oct    at Minn    88
20-Oct    Neb    25
27-Oct    Iowa    45
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Mich    11
17-Nov    at MSU    18
24-Nov    Illinois    55

-----LEADERS-----

ILLINOIS (#55, SS# 70.8)
      
1-Sep    WMU    78
8-Sep    at Ariz St    41
15-Sep    Char Southern  237
22-Sep    La Tech    48
29-Sep    Penn St    28
6-Oct    at Wisc    8
13-Oct    at Mich    11
20-Oct      
27-Oct    Indiana    139
3-Nov    at Oh St    49
10-Nov    Minn    88
17-Nov    Purdue    65
24-Nov    at NW    58

INDIANA (#139, SS# 63.9)
      
1-Sep    Ind St    117
8-Sep    at Umass    150
15-Sep    Ball St    100
22-Sep      
29-Sep    at NW    58
6-Oct    MSU    18
13-Oct    Oh St    49
20-Oct    at Navy    74
27-Oct    at Ill    55
3-Nov    Iowa    45
10-Nov    Wisc    8
17-Nov    at Penn St    28
24-Nov    at Pur    65

OHIO ST  (#49, SS# 62.6)
      
1-Sep    Miami OH    98
8-Sep    C Fla    77
15-Sep    Cal    38
22-Sep    UAB    152
29-Sep    at MSU    18
6-Oct    Neb  
13-Oct    at Ind    139
20-Oct    Pur    65
27-Oct    at Penn St    28
3-Nov    Ill    55
10-Nov      
17-Nov    at Wisc    8
24-Nov    Mich    11

PENN ST (#28, SS# 58.6)
      
1-Sep    Ohio    68
8-Sep    at Va    71
15-Sep    Navy    74
22-Sep    Temple    46
29-Sep    at Ill    55
6-Oct    NW    58
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at Iowa    45
27-Oct    Oh St    49
3-Nov    at Pur    65
10-Nov    at Neb    25
17-Nov    Ind    139
24-Nov    Wisc    8

PURDUE (#65, SS# 66.7)
      
1-Sep    E Ky    153
8-Sep    at ND    26
15-Sep    EMU    119
22-Sep      
29-Sep    Marshall    79
6-Oct    Mich    11
13-Oct    Wisc    8
20-Oct    at OSU    49
27-Oct    at Minn    88
3-Nov    Penn St    28
10-Nov    at Iowa    45
17-Nov    at Ill    55
24-Nov    Ind    139

WISCONSIN (#8, SS# 66.8)
      
1-Sep    N Iowa    75
8-Sep    at Oreg St    87
15-Sep    Utah St    80
22-Sep    UTEP    92
29-Sep    at Neb    25
6-Oct    Ill    55
13-Oct    at Pur    65
20-Oct    Minn    88
27-Oct    MSU    18
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Ind    139
17-Nov    Oh St    49
24-Nov    at Penn St    28

Big Ten schedules down down down: A look at the toughest and easiest non-conference matchups

The ES has looked at Sagarin Ratings to rate how each of the Big Ten teams stack up entering the 2011 season, and particularly to compare non-conference scheduling. OK, we can all dispute the validity of Sagarin ratings, especially before the ball has even been set on the tee for the first time. And, look at the ratings below (with MSU at #36, compared to ES composite at #18 and USA Today coaches’ at #17).

Sagarin Ratings
#. School. Sagarin pts.

3. Ohio State. 90.55
17. Wisconsin 82.76
18. Nebraska 82.61
19. Iowa 32.48
24. Penn State 81.06
36. MSU 77.38
54. scUM. 73.19
56. Illinois 73.09
66. Northwestern 70.31
80. Purdue 68.26
81. Minnesota 67.84
96. Indiana 63.77

However, the Sagarin ratings are the only ones out there that include Division I-FCS teams with Division I-FBS: that makes a total of 246 teams in the rankings. And, since the Big Ten and other BCS-conferences keep loading up with playing games vs the Sisters of the Poor, it is worth seeing the relative amount of worth of playing each of these games, in preparation for the Big Ten season.

Below, I include the rating of each non-conference game in the Big Ten, some of the weakest and strongest schedules. The argument can easily be made that the Big Ten is embarrassing in the number of non-Division games, and games vs non-BCS teams, that are creeping into scheduling, just to be bowl eligible if anything else.  The non-conference schedule strength is based on the Sagarin ratings. Illinois has the toughest non-conference schedule, and are the only program in the Big Ten with three of their four opponents ranked under #100. Notably, the AVERAGE non-conference schedule strength for the Big Ten is OVER #100, at 102.98. That is embarrassing. What does this mean? The Big Ten continues to dilute their schedule with weaker and weaker opponents… this is reason enough for the Big Ten to move to a nine-game schedule in 2017.

1 ILL 81.5
2 OSU 90.5
3 NEB 92.5
4 MICH 94.25
5 WIS 96.75
6 MSU 101
7 MINN 102.25
8 IOWA 109
9 NW 113
10 PUR 113.25
11 PSU 116.5
12 IND 125.25

average 102.9792

Toughest non-conference matchups:

1. #24 Penn State vs #1 Alabama (9/10).
2. #81 Minnesota at #10 USC (9/3).
3. #17 Wisconsin vs #23 Oregon State (9/10).

Weakest non-conference matchups:

1. #24 Penn State vs #209 Indiana State (9/3).
2. #19 Iowa vs. #198 Tennessee Tech (9/10).
3. #80 Purdue vs. #194 SE Missouri St (9/17).

Biggest swings between back-to-back non-conference games:

1. Penn State: 208 points, playing #209 Indiana State followed by #1 Alabama.
2. Purdue: 161 points, playing #194 SE Missouri State followed by 33 Notre Dame.
3. Minnesota: 152 points, playing #10 USC followed by #162 New Mexico St.

Non-conference games

MSU
9/2. Youngstown St. #151
9/10. Florida Atlantic #133
9/17. at Notre Dame #33
9/24. CMU #87

Illinois
9/3. Arkansas St. #119
9/10. San Diego St. #76
9/17. Arizona St. #34
9/14. Western Michigan #97

Indiana
9/3. vs. Ball State (in Indianapolis) #127
9/10. Virginia #65
9/17. S. Carolina St. #155
9/14. at North Texas #154

Iowa
9/3. Tennessee Tech #198
9/10. at Iowa St. #79
9/17. Pittsburgh #28
9/24. Louisiana-Monroe #131

Michigan
9/3. Western Michigan #97
9/10. Notre Dame #33
9/17. Eastern Michigan #171
9/14. San Diego State #76

Minnesota
9/3. at USC #10
9/10. New Mexico St. #162
9/17. Miami, Ohio #117
9/24. North Dakota St. #120

Nebraska
9/3. UT Chattanooga #148
9/10. Fresno St. #70
9/17. Washington #52
9/24. at Wyoming #100

Northwestern
9/3. at Boston College #38
9/10. Eastern Illinois #185
9/17. at Army #108
11/12. Rice #121

Ohio State
9/3. Akron #157
9/10. Toledo #103
9/17. at Miami, Fla. #30
9/24. Colorado #72

Penn St.
9/3. Indiana St. #209
9/10. Alabama #1
9/17. at Temple #85
9/24. Eastern Michigan #171

Purdue
9/3. Middle Tennessee St. #105
9/10. at Rice #121
9/17. SE Missouri St. #194
9/31. Notre Dame #33

Wisconsin
9/1. UNLV #113
9/10. Oregon St. #23
9/17. vs Northern Illinois (in Chicago) #75
9/24. South Dakota #176

Michigan State favored by 7 1/2 vs Illinois

And, the #11 Spartans are 7.5-pt favorites hosting Illinois at Homecoming; Purdue is favored by 5 hosting Minny; Nebraska is favored by 9.5 hosting Texas; Iowa is favored by 3 at Michigan; Ohio State is favored by 6 at Wisconsin; Indiana is favored by 14 at home over Arkansas State.

Michigan State is now #18 in the Jeff Sagarin ratings; Illinois is #31.

Michigan favored by 4, 5, 5 1/2, or 6 1/2 vs Michigan State

Hot off the presses from the bookies: The Yellow Bellies are favored by 4 over Michigan State this Saturday by both Wynn and ViMode. M Resort has scUM favored by 5 1/2 while LVSC has the AA bastards favored by 5. This jives with Jeff Sagarin's predictor rankings, which has scUm as a 6 1/2 point favorite.

Perfect. We got 'em right where we want them. GO SPARTANS!

If you are going down there to watch the game in Ann Arbor, wear the appropriate gear: "Muck Fichigan... Ann Arbor is a Whore" is a best seller... Buy it here

The world according to Sagarin

OK, Jeff Sagarin was pretty accurate last weekend when it came to MSU and CMU last week. This week? Sagarin ratings predicts a 20 point victory for the Big Green in Ford Field (MSU #34 and FAU #85), while the Chips are a 15 point 'dog tomorrow night at Va Tech (Va Tech #21 and CMU #73).

Sagarin sez: MSU 73.4

The ES went through the final 2009 Sagarin Ratings for our 2010 opponents, and found our average Sagarin opponent has a 73.4 rating; our 2010 opponents tallied 78 wins against 70 losses a year ago.

2010 Opponent	'09 Sagarin	'09 W	'09 L
Western Michigan	125	5	7
Florida Atlantic	114	5	7
Notre Dame	48	6	6
Northern Colorado	177	3	8
Wisconsin	23	10	3
at Michigan	81	5	7
Illinois	94	3	9
at Northwestern	61	8	5
at Iowa	9	11	2
Minnesota	64	6	7
Purdue	75	5	7
at Penn State	10	11	2
	73.4	78	70

MSU jumps to #6 in hoops poll

Michigan State extends its dominance in the Big Ten, and it is evidenced now in the latest AP Poll, with the Big Green up to #6 nationally. According to Jeff Sagarin, MSU is #11 nationally, Wisky is #10 and Purdon't is #13. And, in Bracketology, the Spartans sit at a pretty #2 seed in the West, Purdue is #4 MW, Wisky is #3 E, Illinois is #12 E, Ohio State is #5 S. In CollegeRPI, MSU sits at #18, Purdue is #17, Wisky is #9.

Yes, college hoops is a war of attrition and as the war goes on, the cream rises. MSU keeps going up up up....

AP Top 25

1. Texas (57) 17-0 1,617

2. Kentucky (8) 18-0 1,568

3. Kansas 16-1 1,457

4. Villanova 16-1 1,442

5. Syracuse 17-1 1,376

6. Michigan State 15-3 1,259

7. Duke 15-2 1,249

8. Tennessee 14-2 1,163

9. Pittsburgh 15-2 1,015

10. Kansas State 15-2 989

11. West Virginia 13-3 922

12. Georgetown 13-3 873

13. Purdue 14-3 799

14. Brigham Young 18-1 763

15. Gonzaga 14-3 748

16. Temple 15-3 581

17. Clemson 15-3 568

18. Wisconsin 14-4 542

19. Georgia Tech 13-4 380

20. Northern Iowa 16-1 252

21. Ohio State 13-5 228

22. Mississippi 13-4 211

23. Mississippi State 15-3 189

24. North Carolina 12-6 161

25. Baylor 14-2 147

Others Receiving Votes Vanderbilt 122, Connecticut 98, New Mexico 96, UAB 59, Virginia 50, Florida State 41, Butler 35, Texas A&M 28, Cornell 15, William & Mary 15, Wake Forest 13, Rhode Island 11, Marquette 10, Missouri 8, Louisiana Tech 7, Northwestern 6, Old Dominion 3, Arizona State 3, Marshall 2, Xavier 2, Harvard 1, Siena 1. Dropped From Rankings Connecticut 15, Florida State 25.

FYI - Spartan icehockey is at #10 in the USCHO poll.

The Rise of Michigan State... Again

The ES anxiously awaits USA Today and AP rankings this week for the men's hoops team.

There were certainly upsets in the Top 10, giving room for #10 Michigan State to move up. As expected, Wisky beat #4 Purdon't and ruining their feeling of invincibility. The cream always rises to the top, now, doesn't it. The Big Green is back atop the Big Ten leaderboard, where it rightfully should be. Other losses were #9 UNC to Charleston, #8 West Virginia to Notre Dame, #5 Duke to Georgia Tech, and of course #1 Kansas to Tennessee.

This, combined with Michigan State's thrashing at home of Wisconsin (54-47) and whipping of Iowa in the corn state (71-53), should move the Spartans up to #8 or #7. According to Sagarin, Purdon't dropped to #5, Wisky to #12, MSU is at #13, and Minny is at #36. According to RPIratings, Purdon't is #5, Wisky #15, MSU #25, Minny #43.

The hockey team ain't bad either, with a win and a tie/shootout loss to Lake Superior State this weekend. MSU was #13 in the nation heading into the weekend, and at 15-6-3/10-3-3 is just one point behind CCHA leaders Ferris State and Miami-Ohio.

A Lone Star Spartan Holiday Season

Time for the Big Green to put that push that toasted desert of a state into the Gulf of Mexico this holiday season. Michigan State faces Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl on January 2, and tomorrow will travel down to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns on the hardwood. We all know Santa is a Spartan, and he will bring a can of whoop-ass to Texas this week.

So, the Spartans are 8 point underdogs in the Alamo Bowl to Texas Tech. Started out as 6 1/2 point 'dogs, now it is up to 8. Everyone is putting their money on the high-flying Red Raiders -- and who could blame 'em? With the suspensions to umpteen Spartan players, two wideouts and RB suspended who would have likely seen playing time... yes, Mr. MD certainly has his work cut out.

BIG HOLIDAY HOOPS SHOWDOWN: BRING ON TEXAS

The Michigan State Spartans - Texas Longhorns shootout is scheduled on Tuesday, at 7 pm. You can watch the game on ESPN 2. Of course, #2 and 10-0 Texas is coming off a big 103-90 victory over #11 North Carolina before 38,000 fans at the new stadium for the Cowboys. Noone hit that big jumbotron TV with a basketball. The ES can't find a line on the game yet, but last year the Horns were favored by 5 1/2 when we went down there and whipped their arse.

MSU has won the last three meetings between the teams; In fact, Michigan State has never lost to UT during the regular season. In each of the previous meetings, Texas was ranked higher yet Izzo and the Big Green prevailed the last three times. Time to make it a fourseome?

• Dec 20, 2008. #19 MSU 67, #5 Texas 63. at Houston, TX.
• Dec. 22, 2007. #9 MSU 78, #4 Texas 72. at Auburn Hills, MI.
• Nov. 16, 2006. #NR MSU 63, #19 Texas 61. at New York, NY.
• Mar. 30, 2003. #1 Texas 85, #7 MSU 76. NCAA Elite Eight.

YELLOW BELLIES ARE IRRELEVANT
Yes, the rankings are not out yet, but at least we can look at Jeff Sagarin to see where the Big Ten stands so far... and, Michigan, ranked at #162, is irrelevant as a basketball team this year, once again. The garbage they call basketball in Ann Arbor proves that the Big Least and WVU are no match for the Big Ten... but making it to the NCAA tournament once every 10 years ain't so bad now, is it?

Here's Sagarin, through Sunday. This week, Michigan State is the only Big Ten team facing competition ranked by the media poll (AP) or coaches poll (USA Today). And, when considering Sagarin ratings, MSU faces #1 Texas.. the next closest competition is Minnesota facing #48 San Diego State.

Purdue #5. Next up: Southern Illinois.
Wisconsin #17. Next up: Wisc-Milwaukee, Illinois-Chicago.
Ohio State #19. Next up: Cleveland St.
Big Green #26. Next up: #1 Texas
Minnesota #39. Next up: San Diego St.
Northwestern #42. Next up: Central Connecticut St.
Illinois #78. Next up: Missouri.
Joe Pa #142. Next up: American Univ.
Michigan #162. Next up: Coppin St.
Indiana #175. Next up: Loyola-MD, Bryant
Iowa #192. Next up: S. Carolina St.

Michigan State -4.5 vs Florida in Men's Basketball

Yer #2 Michigan State men's dribblers will take on Florida on Friday at 8 pm. We're favored by 4 1/2 points. The game is part of the Legends Classic to be held in Atlantic City. It's the first time the Big Green has hit the road this year. etc. etc.

MSU is 4-0, but so is Florida. Jeff Sagarin ranks MSU #6 and Florida #18. There will be a championship game on Saturday at 8 pm vs. the winner of Rutgers/UMass; the consolation game will start at 5:30 pm on Saturday. All games are on HDTV but will not be on ESPN cable or BTN... so those of us may have to sneak to the bar to watch it or tune in on our Gametracker.

Here is the USA Today poll, and not a whiff of the Gators in it...

1. Kansas (28) 3-0 772

2. Michigan State (2) 4-0 734

3. Texas 2-0 698

4. Villanova 5-0 655

5. Kentucky 4-0 642

6. Purdue 3-0 588

7. Duke (1) 4-0 587

8. West Virginia 1-0 532

9. Syracuse 4-0 481

10. Butler 3-0 475

11. Tennessee 4-0 464

12. North Carolina 4-1 447

13. Connecticut 3-0 405

14. Washington 4-0 383

15. Michigan 2-0 339

16. Minnesota 3-0 233

16. Louisville 3-0 233

18. Ohio State 3-1 219

19. Georgetown 3-0 205

19. Clemson 3-0 205

21. Illinois 3-0 131

22. Maryland 3-0 99

23. California 2-2 71

24. Vanderbilt 2-0 67

25. Georgia Tech 3-1 56

Others Receiving Votes Oklahoma 53, Wake Forest 40, Gonzaga 26, Oklahoma State 24, Brigham Young 23, Florida State 20, Notre Dame 18, Dayton 18, UNLV 18, Miami (FL) 16, LSU 15, Pittsburgh 12, Xavier 12, Tulsa 12, Memphis 11, Mississippi 10, Kansas State 8, Texas A&M 8, Florida 3, Missouri 3, Saint Mary's 2, Siena 1, New Mexico 1. Dropped From Rankings Oklahoma 17, Dayton 21.

Sagarin & Big Ten Rankings: Week 11

What does Sagarin think of the Spartans now? Well, the Big Ten is kind of a jumbled mess, and his ratings and schedule strengths show it.

#12 Ohio State. SS#46.
#16 Iowa. SS #39.
#19 Joe Pa. SS #72.
#24 Wisky. SS #44.
-----
#51 Michigan State. SS #43.
#58 Minny. SS #18.
-----
#72 Purdue. SS #22.
#76 scUM. SS #96.
#78 Northwestern. SS #103.
#90 Illinois. SS #33.
#91 Indiana. SS #56.

OK... but ESPN's Adam Rittenberg has his own Big Ten power ratings at ESPN: #1 OSU, #2 Iowa, #3-t Wisky, #3-t Joe Pa, #5-Northwestern, #6-MSU, #7-Purdue, #8-Illinois, #9-Minny, #10-Indy, #11-scUM. Yup, that's Meeechigan dead last.

Rittenberg also prviews the MSU-Purdue game and calls it a "bowl play-in game." But, what's your prediction, smarty pants?

Oh, and it's just $10 for students/free for g.i.'s to get into this weekend's game at Purdue. It is senior day, and the Boiler faithful are asking students and military folk to "Show Up For the Seniors.

Sagarin and the Spartans; Blair White gets POW

Let's take a look at the Big Ten under the loopy eyes of Jeff Sagarin last week and this week... Note, the Big Green has moved up to #42, a mere 37 spots below Iowa. Yet, 'tis an even spread, so certainly momentum, Dantonio, and "skinny" has lots to do with the current spread. SS = schedule strength.

Oct 19. / Oct 12.
#5. Iowa, SS = 20. / #9. Iowa, SS = 30
#19. Ohio State, SS = 35. / #8. Ohio State, SS = 37
#21. Joe Pa, SS = 106. / #28. Joe Pa, SS = 113
#32. Wisconsin, SS = 29. / #21. Wisconsin, SS = 31
#34. scUM, SS = 90. / #37. scUM, SS = 47
#42. MSU, SS = 32. / #44. Michigan State, SS = 26
#59. Minnesota, SS = 27. / #54. Minnesota, SS = 46
#76. Purdue, SS = 23. / #91. Purdue, SS = 23
#90. Indiana, SS = 79. / #86. Indiana, SS = 61
#100. Nwestern, SS = 125. / #95. Northwestern, SS = 139
#125. Illinois, SS = 34. / #112. Illinois, SS = 25

BLAIR WHITE WINS BIG TEN PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Here's a "no shit" no-brainer: Blair White won the Big Ten's offensive player of the week award:

"Blair White, Michigan State
SR, WR, Saginaw, Mich./Nouvel Catholic Central
White set career highs with 12 receptions and 186 receiving yards and matched a career best with two touchdowns to help Michigan State rally from a halftime deficit to a victory over Northwestern. The senior wideout averaged 15.5 yards per catch to record his third effort of 100 yards or more this season and the fifth 100-yard outing of his career. With the Spartans trailing 7-0 at the half, the hosts knotted the score on their first offensive possession of the third quarter, with quarterback Kirk Cousins hitting White on a 22-yard scoring strike. After a Northwestern punt, MSU struck again, with Cousins hitting White on a 47-yard touchdown toss to give the Spartans a lead they would not relinquish. White’s 12 catches equaled the fourth-best single-game total in school history while his 186 yards ranked 10th in program annals. The Michigan native earns his first career weekly award."

ES Game Day Preview: MSU 38, Northwestern 17

Northwestern (4-2/1-1, #95 Sagarin, sked strength #139) at Michigan State (3-3/2-1, #44 Sagarin, sked strength #26)
Saturday, October 17, 2009. 12 Noon.
TV: ESPN 2
Weather: 48 degrees, mostly sunny.
Latest Line: Michigan State favored by 13.

Tickets available.

Injuries: Michigan State - S Roderick Jenrette (foot), out; RB Glenn Winston (knee), out; CB Kendall Davis-Clark (leg), questionable; WR Mark Dell (shoulder), probable; QB Kirk Cousins (ankle), probable; QB Keith Nichol (elbow), probable. Northwestern - RB Alex Daniel (ankle) out; S Brendan Smith (hand), out; OT Mike Boyle (back) out; LB Ben Johnson (leg) out; LB Bryce McNaul (leg) out; CB Justan Vaughn (leg) out; DT Jack DiNardo (shoulder) questionable; DE Corey Wootton (ankle), probable.

Previews: Lake The Posts (MSU 30, NW 24); College Football News (MSU 30, NW 23); StatSheet (MSU 30, NW 20); Examiner.com; Bleacher Report (MSU 21, NW 13); ESPN/Adam Rittenberg (MSU 29, NW 23)

Prediction: The ES isn't that impressed with NU. This game ain't like Northwestern upsets of old over Michigan State, because of the improved coaching of MSU and the terrible, terrible play by Northwestern against one of the weakest schedules in all D1-FBS. Sagarin ranks Nwesterns opponents played as #139 strongest in the country. Yes, my dead grandma could QB Northwestern and beaten Eastern Michigan, Miami-Ohio, AND SYRACUSE. What is the strength of schedule of other D1-FBS 2-loss teams in America? The ES took the time, scrolled through Sagarin's website, and compiled a list (below) of all the two-loss teams that competed in the FBS division.... and found that Northwestern was DEAD LAST of all 2-loss teams; matter of fact, their strength of schedule of #139 was lower than the number of teams competing in 1-FBS (120 teams).

2-loss Division 1-FBS teams and Schedule Strength: Arizona SS#5, Arizona State SS#101, Arkansas SS#17, Baylor SS#87, BC SS#57, California SS#12, Central Florida SS#127, Louisiana-Lafayette SS#79, Louisiana Monroe SS#117, Marshall SS#72, Middle Tennessee State SS#71, scUM SS#47, Minnesota SS#46, Mississippi SS#6, UNC SS #81, Northern Illinois SS#84, Ohio SS# 70, Oklahoma SS#55, Oregon State SS#44, SMU SS#64, Stanford SS#27, Temple SS#114, Texas A&M SS#105, Texas Tech SS#110, Troy SS#34, UCLA SS#16, Wake Forest SS#50.

So, what does that mean, with NW and a strength of schedule #139, losing to Sagarin's #97-ranked Syracuse, struggling against #155-ranked Miami-Ohio, squeaking by #164-ranked Eastern Michigan and #91-ranked Purdue, and losing on the road to #55-ranked Minnesota?

A FLAT-ASSED BUTT KICKING. The ES is not impressed, especially if you can't figure out the name of our starting quarterback, let alone the dynamics of our QB situation. Besides, Northwestern's colors in Division 1 are the closest of any school to PINK.

Halftime: MSU 21, Northwestern 10. Final score: MSU 38, NW: 17.

Michigan State favored by 12 over Northwestern

Fresh off the Spartans' ruining the Illini homecoming, 24-14, the Big Green returns to East Lansing for its own homecoming this week as a 12-point favorite over Northwestern. Ohio State is favored by 14 at Purdue; Iowa favored by 2 at Wisky; Joe Pa by 15 at home over Minny; Illinois by 2.5 at Indiana. FYI, Southern Cal is favored by 8 at Notre Dame. And, Michigan faces 1-3 Delaware State, ranked #187 by Jeff Sagarin. Speaking of Sagarin, here is his rankings of the Big Ten, including schedule strength:

#8. Ohio State, SS = 37
#9. Iowa, SS = 30
#21. Wisconsin, SS = 31
#28. Joe Pa, SS = 113
#37. scUM, SS = 47
#44. Michigan State, SS = 26
#54. Minnesota, SS = 46
#86. Indiana, SS = 61
#91. Purdue, SS = 23
#95. Northwestern, SS = 139
#112. Illinois, SS = 25

Here is your latest AP Poll for week 7, through October 11, 2009

RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Florida (50)	5-0	1490
2	Alabama (10)	6-0	1430
3	Texas	5-0	1395
4	Virginia Tech	5-1	1283
5	Boise State	5-0	1199
6	USC	4-1	1161
7	Ohio State	5-1	1048
8	Cincinnati	5-0	1038
9	Miami (FL)	4-1	970
10	LSU	5-1	947
11	Iowa	6-0	919
12	TCU	5-0	917
13	Oregon	5-1	776
14	Penn State	5-1	597
15	Nebraska	4-1	576
16	Oklahoma State	4-1	559
17	Kansas	5-0	551
18	Brigham Young	5-1	490
19	Georgia Tech	5-1	453
20	Oklahoma	3-2	432
21	South Florida	5-0	330
22	South Carolina	5-1	319
23	Houston	4-1	192
24	Utah	4-1	76
25	Notre Dame	4-1	75

Dropped from rankings: Auburn 17, Mississippi 20, Missouri 24

Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh 58, Auburn 55, West Virginia 46, Mississippi 28, Wisconsin 27, Missouri 25, Arkansas 16, Central Michigan 6, Arizona 5, Michigan 5, Oregon State 2, Navy 1, Idaho 1, Stanford 1, Texas Tech 1

INJURY UPDATE: It's a bummer, but Glenn Winston is done for the year with a torn knee ligament (ACL). That's a big blow to MSU's kick return game; Winston was also the most physical of the MSU running backs this year.

Schedule strength: MSU #32, scUM #105

Now, why would a 1-3 Michigan State team at all be favored over a #22, 4-0 Michigan Yellow Belly team? The ES looks a bit deeper into the OPPONENTS PLAYED to get a better sense at where these teams stand heading into rivalry weekend. Again, this early in the season, the ES uses Sagarin rankings because not only do they rank every team, but also every Division I-FCS and FBS team; Sagarin is also a component in the BCS rankings, as if that matters.

Michigan State is #59 in the Sagarin rankings. scUM is #30.

Michigan State schedule ranking is #32, with a 71.7 score:
Montana State (home): #141, W.
Central Michigan (home): #57, L.
Notre Dame (away): #32, L.
Wisconsin (away): #31, L.

scUM schedule ranking is #105, with a 63.9 score:
Western Michigan (home): #90, W.
Notre Dame (home): #32, W.
Eastern Michigan (home): #159, W.
Indiana (home): #68, W.

Summary: Both teams played Notre Dame about even, with the W to Michigan's home field. MSU played CMU to within one point and lost; Michigan beat Indiana by three. Both teams pounded the worst team on their schedule (Montana State, EMU). Michigan handled WMU easily at home; the Spartans laid an egg on the road at Wisconsin.

A big edge in this game goes to Spartan Stadium and MSU's home field, as scUM has not yet traveled away from The Hole in the Ground this year. The rockin' nature of the Big Green Stadium will certainly rattle Mr. Forcier and his sore shoulder this week.

INJURIES ON THE FRONT LINES: The Doctor is trying to save the redshirt of several freshmen, but injuries and ineffectiveness on the offensive and defensive lines may lead to MD playing Henry Conway at offensive tackle and Blake Treadwell in a pass rush situation. LG Joel Foreman is questionable (ankle); OT J'Michael Deane (leg) is questionable.

Wisconsin favored by 3 over MSU

Latest Line from the bookies in Las Vegas: Michigan State is a 3 point underdog at Wisconsin on Saturday (kickoff slated for noon). Ohio State is favored by 15 at home over Illinois; N'western is favored by 1 at home over Minnesota. Michigan is favored by 18 at home over Indiana. JoePa is favored by 11 at home over Iowa. Notre Dame is favored by 7 at Purdon't.

For a 3-0 team like Wisconsin, the nation sure ain't buying into any long-term potential: not one single "also considered" votes for the Badgers in either the AP or USA Today Polls (OK, they got 2 votes in the USA Today poll... but point is made).

Adversity knocked the Doctor upside the head after last week's loss... this week, it's about ready to decapitate him. Let's see what he can do to get his team, and particularly the defense, to get over the hump. ES feels pretty confident in this Spartan team right now, even though they are 1-2.

If the ES were to rank the Big Ten right now (with Jeff Sagarin Rankings):

1. JoePa (3-0, all blowouts). #32 Sagarin
2. Ohio State (2-1, loss to USC). #18 Sagarin
3. Iowa (3-0, wins over Iowa St & Arizona). #7 Sagarin
4. Michigan (3-0, win over ND, two over girly-men). #29 Sagarin
5. Wisconsin (3-0, win over Fresno, two over woosies). #16 Sagarin
6. Minnesota (2-1, loss to Cal, two wins over sisters of the poor). #49 Sagarin
7. Michigan St. (1-2, loss to ND, CMU). #78 Sagarin
8. Indiana (3-0, all close wins over bad teams). #69 Sagarin
9. Illinois (1-1, blown out by Mizzou). #86 Sagarin
10. Northwestern (2-1, loss to Syracuse, barely beat EMU). #112 Sagarin
11. Purdue (1-2, loss to Oregon, Northern Illinois). #66 Sagarin.

AP Poll (week #3, September 20, 2009).

RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Florida (55)	3-0	1488
2	Texas (2)	3-0	1428
3	Alabama (3)	3-0	1390
4	Mississippi	2-0	1213
5	Penn State	3-0	1212
6	California	3-0	1169
7	LSU	3-0	1120
8	Boise State	3-0	1038
9	Miami (FL)	2-0	920
10	Oklahoma	2-1	862
11	Virginia Tech	2-1	852
12	USC	2-1	825
13	Ohio State	2-1	810
14	Cincinnati	3-0	739
15	TCU	2-0	674
16	Oklahoma State	2-1	478
17	Houston	2-0	455
18	Florida State	2-1	363
19	Brigham Young	2-1	349
20	Kansas	3-0	347
21	Georgia	2-1	318
22	North Carolina	3-0	271
23	Michigan	3-0	247
24	Washington	2-1	194
25	Nebraska	2-1	132

Dropped from rankings: Georgia Tech 14, Utah 18

Others receiving votes: Missouri 115, Georgia Tech 102, Auburn 100, Pittsburgh 91, UCLA 62, Iowa 39, Oregon 30, Texas Tech 19, Notre Dame 16, Utah 12, Clemson 11, Colorado State 4, Oregon State 4, South Florida 1

Big Ten Week 1 vs Week 2: Expectations vis a vis Sagarin

OK, let’s talk a bit more at length about the Big Ten’s “underperformance” in Week 1, despite compiling a 10-1 record. As is the case early in the season, the ES uses Sagarin’s rating system to look at football teams, largely because it is the only measure that incorporates both FBS/1A and FCS/1AA teams, and it is included in the BCS rankings.

I listed these games in order of largest difference from Big Ten to Big Ten opponent, coming up with a “Favorite Ranking” for each game. A + indicates favorite, a - indicates underdog. Then, in bold and red are the games that are the most surprising, based on the Favorite Ranking. If you consider Sagarin, the Missouri thumping of Illinois and the scUM thumping of WMU were to be expected. However, five results give credence to a Big Ten “underperformance” in week one, highlighted in BOLD RED.

Week 1. Sagarin Rank & Opponent. Favorite Ranking. Result.

#174 Towson at #61 N’western. +113. WIN, 47-14 (+33)
#148 Montana St at #44 MSU. +104. WIN, 44-3 (+41).
#111 Akron at #8 JoePa. +93. WIN, 31-7 (+24).
#163 Eastern Ky at #95 Indiana. +68. WIN, 19-13 (+6).
#99 Northern Illinois at #33 Wisconsin. +66. WIN, 28-21 (+7).
#113 Toldeo at #57 Purdue. +56. WIN, 52-31 (+21).
#83 Northern Iowa at #27 Iowa. +56 WIN, 17-16 (+1).
#59 Navy at #5 Ohio State. +54. WIN, 31-27 (+4).
#88 WMU at #35 scUM. +53. WIN, 31-7 (+24).
#97 at Syracuse vs #69 Minnesota. +28. WIN, 23-20 (+3).
#18 Missouri at #63 Illinois. –55. LOSS, 37-9 (-28).

If you look to week 2, when ALL teams theoretically make their biggest improvement, a few games Big Ten fans should keep their eye on (in RED BOLD). The Ohio State vs USC game should be close, as should ND-scUM and Air Force-Minny. According to Sagarin, WMU should beat Indiana, and Oregon should whip Purdue. But, the ES figures the struggles by Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State in week 1 may lead to losses (or big losses) in week 2… and, a poor performance by WMU in week 1 gives hope to Indiana in week 2.

Week 2. Sagarin Rank & Opponent. Favorite Ranking.

#183 Illinois State at #65 Illinois. +118.
#162 EMU at #71 Northwestern +91.
#104 Syracuse at #14 JoePa. +90.
#78 at Iowa State vs #36 Iowa. +42.
#84 CMU at #43 MSU. +41.
#67 Fresno State at #37 Wisconsin. +30.
#35 Notre Dame at #30 scUM. +5.
#61 Air Force at #63 Minnesota. –2.
#1 Southern Cal at #4 Ohio St.. –3.
#89 WMU at #106 Indiana. –17.
#18 at Oregon vs #57 Purdue. –39.

Jeff Sagarin ranks MSU #44; Joe Paterno is a Dough Boy

Jeff Sagarin's rankings are out for 2009 college football preseason, with MSU ranking a measly 44th. After reviewing the Big Ten composite schedule, the ES was able to make some generalizations about schedule strength, and names Joe Pa as 2009's NCAA Dough Boy for scheduling four creampuffs in 2009. He and the Nittany Lions should be ashamed.

MICHIGAN STATE (#44)
--------------------
Montana State (#148)
CMU (#87)
@ Notre Dame (#48)
@ Wisconsin (#33)
Michigan (#35)
@ Illinois (#63)
N'western (#61)
Iowa (#27)
@ Minnesota (#69)
WMU (#88)
@ Purdue (#57)
Joe Pa (#8)

BIG TEN SAGARIN RANKINGS
------------------------
Illinois (#63)
Indiana (#95)
Iowa (#27)
Michigan (#35)
Mich State (#44)
Minnesota (#69)
N'western (#61)
Ohio State (#5)
Joe Pa (#8)
Purdue (#57)
Wisconsin (#33)

Lowest Sagarin Ranking of non-conference Big Ten opponents:

FCS/1-AA - Delaware State (#200) at Michigan
FBS/1-A - New Mexico State (#144) at Ohio State

Highest Sagarin Ranking of non-conference Big Ten opponents:

Southern Cal (#1) vs Ohio State
Oregon (#10) vs Purdue
California (#15) vs Minnesota
Missouri (#18) vs Illinois

Biggest Sagarin Mismatches (Joe Pa wins the 2009 Dough Boy Award)

Joe Pa (#8) vs Eastern Illinois (#177) - 169 rank difference
Michigan (#35) vs Delaware State (#200) - 165
Ohio State (#5) vs New Mexico State (#144) - 139
Joe Pa (#8) vs Temple (#125) - 117
N'western (#61) vs Towson (#174) - 113
Ohio State (#5) vs Toledo (#113) - 108
Michigan (#35) vs EMU (#141) - 106
Mich State (#44) vs Montana State (#148) - 104
Joe Pa (#8) vs Akron (#111) - 103
Illinois (#63) vs Illinois State (#158) - 95
Iowa (#27) vs Arkansas State (#119) - 92
Joe Pa (#8) vs Syracuse (#97) - 89
N'western (#61) vs EMU (#141) - 80