TOILET BOWL Saturday: Michigan State vs Illinois

MSU 2-6/0-5. Illinois 2-6/1-4
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #61, Illinois #85

Saturday, November 5, 2016.
12:00 pm ET.
Memorial Stadium, Champaign-Urbana, IL
Weather: 60 degrees, partly cloudy
TV: ESPN News.

Line: MSU by 8 (really?)

Oh my, how the mighty have fallen.  We BIG GREEN NATION are playing at Noon today, on ESPN... News.  LOL.  'Nuff said.

Well, a six-game losing streak ain't much fun.  Today's game is do-or-die for a bowl; but we can call today's game the Toilet Bowl.  Whoever loses is the crap of the Big Ten this season.

Last week, the ES just didn't understand why coach D didn't start Lewerke - if there is one fault of Dantonio, it is that he is too loyal.  Lewerke moves the offense, he has better vision and makes better decisions.  The team gets a shot of jet fuel with him in.  Bummer for us, because...  with Lewerke out for the season with a broken leg, coach D doesn't have many options. However, Tyler O'Connor is not a winner.  He just cannot make the good throw and just can't get it done.  The offense is lethargic with TO behind center.

The ES would play Damion Terry the rest of the season; why not give him the work?  At least he has another year of eligibility.

ES sez:  MSU 38, Chief Illiniwek 28
Ronnie:  MSU 28-24
Brock:  Illinois 19-17
Rick:  MSU 31-21
Carly:  MSU 21-10

Bowl projections look terrible for B1G Ten

Wow, based on the projections by BTN's Tom Deinhart, the ES isn't so bullish on the Big Ten's chances in bowls.  This game by MSU really can make or break whether or not MSU plays in a premium bowl, or a toilet bowl. Right now, Deinhart has the Spartans in a toilet bowl.

Here is what the ES thinks with his prediction of a, gulp, ugly 3-6 Big Ten result:

BOWL GAME	MATCHUP	PROJECTION (ES PREDICTS)
BCS title game, Jan. 6	BCS No 1 vs. No. 2	Ohio State vs. Alabama (LOSS)
Rose Bowl, Jan. 1	Big Ten vs. BCS/Pac-12	Northwestern vs. Oregon (LOSS)
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1	Big Ten vs. SEC	Wisconsin vs. Georgia (LOSS)
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1	Big Ten vs. SEC	Michigan vs. Florida (LOSS)
Gator Bowl, Jan. 1	Big Ten vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Ole Miss (WIN)
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Dec. 28	Big Ten vs. Big 12	Iowa vs. Baylor (WIN)
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27	Big Ten vs. Big 12	Michigan State vs. Texas (LOSS)
Heart of Dallas Bowl, Jan. 1	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Illinois vs. Rice (WIN)
Little Caesars Pizza, Dec. 26	Big Ten vs. MAC	Minnesota vs. Ohio (LOSS)

Big Ten schedule strength: Illinois is Biggest Wimp; Michigan State schedules strong

Scheduling Charleston Southern? Gotta sell tickets somehow!

What is the top cupcake schedule in the Big Ten, and what school should be rewarded by having the most competitive schedule?    The ES looks at this every year, and prefers using Jeff Sagarin’s ratings from the previous year… because, it is the only rating system that includes all Division I-FCS team rankings with Division I-FBS rankings.  Because playing inferior FCS teams is becoming more commonplace among Big Ten teams, trying to see how they rank compared to FBS opponents provides an interesting unit of measure of schedule strength.    

Michigan State has a decent schedule overall, fourth toughest in the Big Ten, scheduling against an average opponent rank of 59.5  The matchups against CMU and EMU are gimme-victories; but, bulking up against Boise State and ND make up for scheduling these other sins.  The braggadocios down the road scheduled defending national champ 'Bama, giving them the toughest schedule.

Ranking schedules by team, and legends (L) have 5 of the 6 most difficult schedules in the Big Ten heading into 2012.

1. Michigan 54.3 L

2. Nebraska 55.6 L

3. Penn St. 58.6

4. Mich St. 59.5 L

5. Minnesota 60.3 L

6. Iowa 62.0 L

7. Ohio St. 62.6

8. Indiana 63.9

9. Northwestern 63.1

10. Purdue 66.7

11. Wisconsin 66.8

12. Illinois 70.8

WIMPY ILLINOIS GETS THE CUPCAKE NOD: Looking at Sagarin, the ES is most offended by Illinois, scheduling woeful Charleston Southern in week three.  The Buccaneers sported a lovely 0-11 record last year as a member of the Big South.  Their schedule is anything but a strength, a conference-worst 70.8 average.

SOME DANDY MATCHUPS:  The best non-conference matchups for 2012 jumped right out.  Get tickets to these games.   These were placed in order by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams. 

1. Nebraska (25) vs S Miss (24).  -1.

2. MSU (18) vs ND (26).  +8.

3. MSU (18) vs Boise St (9). -9.

4. Mich (11) vs Alabama (1). -10.

5. Ohio St (49) vs Cal (38). -11.

6. Mich (11) at ND (26). +15.

7. Purdue (65) at ND (26). -39.

PATHETIC CUPCAKE SCHEDULING ABOUNDS.  The most pathetic non-conference matchups for 2012 were determined by looking at the difference in Sagarin ratings between the football teams.  Each of these institutions should be ashamed for scheduling down to such low levels.

1. Illinois (55) vs Charleston Southern (237). +182.

2. Nebraska (25) vs Idaho St (205). +180.

3. Mich (11) vs UMass (150). +139.

4. MSU (18) at CMU (137). +119.

5. Ohio St (49) vs UAB (152). +103

6-t. Purdue (65) vs E. Kentucky (153). +88.

6-t. Iowa (45) vs CMU (137). + 88.

8. Minn (88) at UNLV (155). +67.

PLAYING WAY DOWN TO ANOTHER LEVEL: Notably, there are eight games against Division I-FCS institutions in the Big Ten this fall: Northern Iowa (#75) is lucky to schedule two Big Ten teams, vs Iowa and vs Wisconsin, New Hampshire (#120) vs Minnesota, Idaho State (#205) vs Nebraska; South Dakota (#130) vs Northwestern; Charleston Southern (#237) vs Illinois; Indiana State (#117) vs Indiana; and, Eastern Kentucky (#153) vs Purdue.

FULL SCHEDULE STRENGTH LISTING:  Below, here are the schedules for each of the teams in the big ten, and their final Sagarin ranking from 2011 next to the name of each team, followed by the schedule strength (SS) average.

-----LEGENDS-----

IOWA (#45, SS# 62.0)
      
1-Sep    vs N Ill    47
8-Sep    Iowa St    53
15-Sep    N Iowa    75
22-Sep    CMU    137
29-Sep    Minn    88
6-Oct      
13-Oct    at MSU    18
20-Oct    Penn St    28
27-Oct    at NW    58
3-Nov    at Ind    139
10-Nov    Pur    65
17-Nov    at Mich    11
24-Nov    Neb    25

MICH (#11, SS# 54.3)
      
1-Sep    vs Alabama    1
8-Sep    Air Force    72
15-Sep    Umass    150
22-Sep    at ND    26
29-Sep      
6-Oct    at Purdue    65
13-Oct    Ill    55
20-Oct    MSU    18
27-Oct    at Neb    25
3-Nov    at Minn    88
10-Nov    NW    58
17-Nov    Iowa    45
24-Nov    at Oh St    49

MICH STATE (#18, SS# 59.5)
      
1-Sep    Boise St    9
8-Sep    at CMU    137
15-Sep    ND    26
22-Sep    EMU    119
29-Sep    Oh St    49
6-Oct    at Ind    139
13-Oct    Iowa    45
20-Oct    at Mich    11
27-Oct    at Wis    8
3-Nov    Neb    25
10-Nov      
17-Nov    NW    58
24-Nov    at Minn    88

MINN   (#88, SS# 60.3)
      
1-Sep    at UNLV    155
8-Sep    New Hampshire    120
15-Sep    WMU    78
22-Sep    Syr    86
29-Sep    at Iowa    45
6-Oct      
13-Oct    NW    58
20-Oct    at Wisc    8
27-Oct    Purdue    65
3-Nov    Mich    11
10-Nov    at ill    55
17-Nov    at Neb    25
24-Nov    MSU    18

NEBRASKA (#25, SS# 55.6)
      
1-Sep    S Miss    24
8-Sep    at UCLA    66
15-Sep    Ark St    67
22-Sep    Idaho St    205
29-Sep    Wisc    8
6-Oct    at Oh St    49
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at NW    58
27-Oct    Mich    11
3-Nov    at MSU    18
10-Nov    Penn St    28
17-Nov    Minn    88
24-Nov    at Iowa    45

NORTHWESTERN (#58, SS# 63.1)
      
1-Sep    at Syracuse    86
8-Sep    Vandy    42
15-Sep    BC    90
22-Sep    S Dakota    130
29-Sep    Indiana    139
6-Oct    at Penn St    28
13-Oct    at Minn    88
20-Oct    Neb    25
27-Oct    Iowa    45
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Mich    11
17-Nov    at MSU    18
24-Nov    Illinois    55

-----LEADERS-----

ILLINOIS (#55, SS# 70.8)
      
1-Sep    WMU    78
8-Sep    at Ariz St    41
15-Sep    Char Southern  237
22-Sep    La Tech    48
29-Sep    Penn St    28
6-Oct    at Wisc    8
13-Oct    at Mich    11
20-Oct      
27-Oct    Indiana    139
3-Nov    at Oh St    49
10-Nov    Minn    88
17-Nov    Purdue    65
24-Nov    at NW    58

INDIANA (#139, SS# 63.9)
      
1-Sep    Ind St    117
8-Sep    at Umass    150
15-Sep    Ball St    100
22-Sep      
29-Sep    at NW    58
6-Oct    MSU    18
13-Oct    Oh St    49
20-Oct    at Navy    74
27-Oct    at Ill    55
3-Nov    Iowa    45
10-Nov    Wisc    8
17-Nov    at Penn St    28
24-Nov    at Pur    65

OHIO ST  (#49, SS# 62.6)
      
1-Sep    Miami OH    98
8-Sep    C Fla    77
15-Sep    Cal    38
22-Sep    UAB    152
29-Sep    at MSU    18
6-Oct    Neb  
13-Oct    at Ind    139
20-Oct    Pur    65
27-Oct    at Penn St    28
3-Nov    Ill    55
10-Nov      
17-Nov    at Wisc    8
24-Nov    Mich    11

PENN ST (#28, SS# 58.6)
      
1-Sep    Ohio    68
8-Sep    at Va    71
15-Sep    Navy    74
22-Sep    Temple    46
29-Sep    at Ill    55
6-Oct    NW    58
13-Oct      
20-Oct    at Iowa    45
27-Oct    Oh St    49
3-Nov    at Pur    65
10-Nov    at Neb    25
17-Nov    Ind    139
24-Nov    Wisc    8

PURDUE (#65, SS# 66.7)
      
1-Sep    E Ky    153
8-Sep    at ND    26
15-Sep    EMU    119
22-Sep      
29-Sep    Marshall    79
6-Oct    Mich    11
13-Oct    Wisc    8
20-Oct    at OSU    49
27-Oct    at Minn    88
3-Nov    Penn St    28
10-Nov    at Iowa    45
17-Nov    at Ill    55
24-Nov    Ind    139

WISCONSIN (#8, SS# 66.8)
      
1-Sep    N Iowa    75
8-Sep    at Oreg St    87
15-Sep    Utah St    80
22-Sep    UTEP    92
29-Sep    at Neb    25
6-Oct    Ill    55
13-Oct    at Pur    65
20-Oct    Minn    88
27-Oct    MSU    18
3-Nov      
10-Nov    at Ind    139
17-Nov    Oh St    49
24-Nov    at Penn St    28

MSU at Ohio State - 71-61 loss, sans reality?

Let's face it - this was Michigan State's best road game of the year, particularly defensively. What sucked was the substitutions toward the end of the game didn't pay off, as Spartans' offensive came up short off the rim after several unforced errors by Lucas and Appling - sigh - couldn't be overcome. But that was LATE. Mich State was down by one at half and led the game well into the second half. This is on the road at #3 Ohio State. I kept watching 'cause I thought we could win. Play this game on a neutral site, and we have a shot.

The highs: The Bigs: Green, Nix, Sherman, Payne, even Roe -- when they were in, they played great defensively, I mean GREAT. Best the ES has seen all year... and, they even contributed more than half the points in the first half.

Other highs: Lucas and Keebler (the cookie guy?). Wow, Lucas looks back to his old self - had the turnovers late, but we will get that corrected - Lucas diced and sliced... and Keebler played like 25 minutes??? ??? and great defense. Give the Keebs credit on that end - will he be the next Bograkas scholarship? Could be - impressive.

The lows: Summers, Summers, and Summers. Wow. Probably the worst game of his career. And this guy did the tomahawk on Stanley Robinson/UConn (on the ES website) in the Final Four? You wouldn't know it; he was a complete no-show on the court. We could have used his outside shot. When he was put in the game, he just stood there like a piece of wood. What's wrong with him? No wonder Keebler played 25 minutes. He deserves the scholarship.

Bottom line: On the road, in tough environs after #1 team lost its first game, Mich State really played well for most of the game, without Delvon Roe, one of its best interior defenders. Big Green found some mojo, and is fighting hard and it shows. MSU MUST take punishment out on its next six opponents, beginning with Illinois in a ESPN Game Day on Saturday at 9 pm.

But we saw in the last two games that MSU has its Mojo back. Now, it is time to use it.

Michigan State favored by 7 1/2 vs Illinois

And, the #11 Spartans are 7.5-pt favorites hosting Illinois at Homecoming; Purdue is favored by 5 hosting Minny; Nebraska is favored by 9.5 hosting Texas; Iowa is favored by 3 at Michigan; Ohio State is favored by 6 at Wisconsin; Indiana is favored by 14 at home over Arkansas State.

Michigan State is now #18 in the Jeff Sagarin ratings; Illinois is #31.

Michigan State 24, Illinois 14. We Zookified 'em!

Ron Zook gambled by pulling Juice Williams at QB and replacing him with Eddie McGee. It didn't work, he lost and so did Illinois. They was Zookified by Michigan State.

McGee's last past was intercepted by Spartan safety Danny Fortener for a 33-yard TD to put MSU up 24-0. Game over. Zookification complete. The final scored, 24-14, included MSU leaving more points on the field from personal fouls and turnovers in the red zone. It really wasn't that close. Of more concern is the status of RB Glenn Winston, who ran well for Michigan State (14-65, 1 TD) before being injured in the second quarter. Much like playing scUM, the Spartans early on had LONG offensive drives leading to scores (and a 14-0 lead), and nullifying any potential for offensive momentum by Illinois; the defense did its part by holding the Illini to short drives. Next thing you know, Jed's a millionaire and the Big Green are cruizin' to victory.

Another great defensive effort by MSU, as they held UI to just 267 total yards. MSU defense is gaining strength, and confidence.

Now, MSU's stock is UP, at 3-3/2-1 in the conference. Next up: Nwestern.

	Spartans	Fighting Illini
First Downs	20	15
Passing	8	6
Rushing	10	9
Penalty	2	0
Third Down Efficiency	5-15	3-14
Fourth Down Efficiency	2-2	1-1
TOTAL NET YARDS	370	267
Total Plays	70	60
Average Gain Per Play	5.3	4.5
NET YARDS RUSHING	190	128
Rushes	45	32
Average Per Rush	4.2	4.0
NET YARDS PASSING	180	139
Completions-Attempts	13-25	9-28
Yards Per Pass Play	7.2	5.0
Times Sacked	1	6
Yards Lost to Sacks	1	23
Had Intercepted	1	1
PUNTS	7	9
Average Punt	39.0	43.6
PENALTIES	5	4
Penalty Yards	50	38
FUMBLES	1	0
Fumbles Lost	1	0

ES Game Day Preview: MSU 32, Illinois 20

Michigan State (2-3/1-1, #47 Sagarin) at Illinois (1-3/0-2, #91 Sagarin)

Saturday, October 10, 2009. 12 Noon.
TV: Big Ten Network
Weather: 60 degrees, sunny.
Latest Line: Michigan State favored by 4.

Tickets available.

Injuries: Michigan State - S Roderick Jenrette (foot), out; OL Joel Foreman (knee), probable; WR Mark Dell (shoulder), probable; QB Kirk Cousins (ankle), probable. Illinois - MLB Martez Wilson (neck), out; CB Miami Thomas (knee), out; DE Michael Hoomanawanui (ankle), probable; DT Corey Liuget (ankle), probable; S Garrett Edwards, (neck), probable.

Prediction: It will be interesting to see if MSU's defense can continue the momentum of last week, this time on the road at a struggling Illini. UI's season is on the line - and so is Zook's job. As such, he's canned all-world QB Juice Williams for junior redshirt Eddie McGee. This spells doom... but the Spartan defense has made opposing QB subs look like pro players in recent memory. The ES figures you will see both Mc Gee and Williams - but will the Spartan pass defense look solid with Fortener instead of Jenrette? Can they contain McGee and force some turnovers? As noted in one preview, "Illinois coaching staff expects McGee to connect on the short and medium routes that Juice struggled to hit. McGee also boasts more speed than Juice, so he'll try to run away from defenders rather than powering through them. One potential problem: McGee has a reputation for fumbling." Zook may be drawing for straws, trying to find an answer instead of having patience: Williams played against three great defenses in their losses to ranked teams: Missouri, Ohio State, and Penn State. Can MSU measure up? Actually putting in McGee might help Michigan State. It will be interesting to see.

The bigger problem is if Illinois' defense can stop MSU's offense. I'm not so worried about the Spartan offense, as it continues to chew up yards through the air with competent offense, great QB passing by Cousins and Nichol, and both QBs scrambling for positive yards when needed. MSU RBs had just 2.3 ypc last week, but it was the mix of pass and run that made for some efficient long drives. That spells doom for Illinois, which has a defense worse than Michigan State or Michigan - it's the worst in the conference.

Expect Illinois to play better than it has in previous weeks, but so will a surging Michigan State team.

Halftime: MSU 14, Illinois 10. Final Score: Michigan State 32, Illinois 20.

Michigan State vs Illinois predictions & previews

Here are a few previews so far on the MSU at Illinois tilt on Saturday...

Big Ten Network preview, Bleacher Report preview, ESPN/Adam Rittenberg (MSU 31,-23), CFN/Scout (MSU 27-20), Illini Loyalty message board,

CBS Sports predicts MSU to face Kansas in the Alamo Bowl.

Michigan State Spartans favored by 4 at Illinois

The early line out of LSVC in Las Vegas is that your Michigan State Spartan gridders are a 4-point favorite at woeful Illinois this weekend. Iowa is favored by a TD at home over scUM. Ohio State is favored by 16 at home over Wisky. Minny is favored by 4.5 at home over Purdue. Northwestern is favored by 23 at home over Miami-Ohio. Indiana is a 6.5-point underdog at Virginia.

Oh yes, maybe after Michigan State's resounding victory at home over scUM, where we snatched victory from the jaws of defeat -- despite pounding the little yellow men all day -- is clearly the dawn of a new era. No, these ain't yer Same Old Spartans. Time to continue the momentum this weekend against an Illinois team running a similar offense as scUM. It was nice to see the Spartan defense dominate the line of scrimmage (such as holding scUM to under 30 yards rushing is a nice feat), and also nice to see very solid play at QB from Keith Nichol and the Spartan offensive line. The most complete effort of the season for the Big Green vs. scUM in a game they HAD to win.

The AP axed scUM from its Top 25 this week:

RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Florida (54)	4-0	1486
2	Texas (1)	4-0	1416
3	Alabama (5)	5-0	1404
4	LSU	5-0	1290
5	Virginia Tech	4-1	1200
6	Boise State	5-0	1185
7	USC	4-1	1108
8	Cincinnati	5-0	1004
9	Ohio State	4-1	994
10	TCU	4-0	940
11	Miami (FL)	3-1	931
12	Iowa	5-0	823
13	Oregon	4-1	676
14	Penn State	4-1	564
15	Oklahoma State	3-1	563
16	Kansas	4-0	513
17	Auburn	5-0	428
18	Brigham Young	4-1	403
19	Oklahoma	2-2	370
20	Mississippi	3-1	357
21	Nebraska	3-1	333
22	Georgia Tech	4-1	311
23	South Florida	5-0	238
24	Missouri	4-0	215
25	South Carolina	4-1	200

Dropped from rankings: Houston 12, Georgia 18, Michigan 22, California 24

Others receiving votes: Wisconsin 157, Houston 142, Georgia 115, Stanford 50, Utah 31, Michigan 25, Boston College 12, Notre Dame 9, Pittsburgh 3, Arizona 2, West Virginia 2,