Michigan State Spartans (1-0) at Maryland Turtles (1-0)

SECU Stadium.  College Park, Maryland

September 7, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.

Weather: 73 and partly cloudy. 

Sagarin Ratings: Michigan State #80. Maryland #37.  

Line Outta Vegas: Maryland by around 9 points.  

About the Sagarin Ratings.  Why the hell does the ES use this?  Many reasons.  First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99.  So - there is some smarmy connection there.  Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS).  As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).  

So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her.  So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.  

So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285

Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas.  I hope she’s wrong. 

The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland.  The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium.  Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke.  The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game.  So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans.  It was weird.   As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster.  All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town. 

In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan.  We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years.  He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.”  He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.”  He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better.  But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss. 

That’s some of my Maryland experiences.  

How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?”  I dunno.  What do you think?

Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season.  I am leaning toward the former.

Big Bob: MD 31-17

Aussie Paul:  MSU 44-0

Uncle Denny: MSU 31-28

PB Skooz: 34-21 Good Guys
Lansing Doc:  MSU 23-19

Pontiac Keith: Maryland 28-13

SF Chock Maryland 28-10

ES sez, MSU surprises, 26-24