ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Turtles

Welcome to College Park Maryland, aka Melvindale, Michigan

Michigan State Spartans (1-0) at Maryland Turtles (1-0)

SECU Stadium.  College Park, Maryland

September 7, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.

Weather: 73 and partly cloudy. 

Sagarin Ratings: Michigan State #80. Maryland #37.  

Line Outta Vegas: Maryland by around 9 points.  

About the Sagarin Ratings.  Why the hell does the ES use this?  Many reasons.  First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99.  So - there is some smarmy connection there.  Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS).  As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).  

So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her.  So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.  

So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285

Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas.  I hope she’s wrong. 

The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland.  The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium.  Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke.  The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game.  So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans.  It was weird.   As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster.  All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town. 

Hopefully, we can return the favor to beat the former Chancellor's school today...

In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan.  We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years.  He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.”  He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.”  He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better.  But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss. 

That’s some of my Maryland experiences.  

How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?”  I dunno.  What do you think?

Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season.  I am leaning toward the former.

Big Bob: MD 31-17

Aussie Paul:  MSU 44-0

Uncle Denny: MSU 31-28

PB Skooz: 34-21 Good Guys
Lansing Doc:  MSU 23-19

Pontiac Keith: Maryland 28-13

SF Chock Maryland 28-10

ES sez, MSU surprises, 26-24

ES Preview: Michigan State at Ugly Uniforms

MSU (2-2, 0-1) vs Maryland (3-1, 0-1)

Saturday, October 1, 2022. 3:30 pm
Capitol One Field, College Park, Maryland
TV: FS1
Weather: 62, showers.  Wind:11 NE

Sagarin Ratings: Maryland #35, Michigan State #47

Line Outta Vegas:  Maryland by 8.

A tiny Taulia Terrapin

The ES got to thinking…. Has Maryland EVER been favored over MSU?  Methinks not, especially with MSU’s 10-2 dominance in the series.  

Oh well, this is not the most exciting post from the ES.  MSU has major problems dating back to last year in the defense, and they obviously have not been solved.  What’s to think one week makes a difference?  

Maryland brings a prolific offense to this game, like the last two opponents, Washington and Minnesota.  Uh-oh.  Somebody tell DC Scottie Hazelton.  The defense has no pass rush and the DBs have been chasing receivers down from behind the last two weeks.  It’s been embarassing.

Spartan Fans:  Pray for a miracle of for the earth to split into two.   Pray for rain, lots of it, just to make things interesting.  I dunno.  Harumph. Whatever.  I have a faint sliver of hope.  It makes no sense for Maryland to be favored over MSU.  None.  Time to right the ship. Coach Tuck, measuring stick time.  

Prognostications:   

ES sez:  MSU 28, Maryland 26.

ES Preview: MSU at the Coachless Terps

Nothing like a Mercedes hood on a Geo Metro. 
Welcome to Maryland, folks

This is College Park, MD.  The ES is in the middle of a firestorm, here in our nation's capitol, as the football coach for the University of Maryland gets sacked for intimidation and inappropriate behavior toward the players.  I just harken back to my visit at Maryland a few years back.  I've returned, and God help me.

Michigan State Spartans (5-3, 3-2) at Maryland Terrapins (5-3, 3-2)
Time and Tube:  Noon/ESPN2
Capitol One Field at Maryland Stadium
Weather:  54 degrees, sunny, 14 mph winds

Line from Vegas:  Big Green by 2-1/2

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #26, Maryland #49

So, who's a-gonna win?

ES' handywork in DC, graffiti-wall painting the night before
the big game....

Predictions:

Kat:  MSU 21-7
Big Bob:  MSU 21-17
John Tull:  MSU 34-31
RGM3:  MSU 28-17
Big Joe and Phantom 309: Rocky 35, Turtle Soup 21
Australia Paul:  MSU 45-0
CHock:  MSU 31-17

ES sez:  MSU 28-14

Enlightened Preview: #17 Michigan State vs. Maryland

#17 Michigan State vs Maryland Trailer Park
East Lansing, Michigan

November 18, 2017.  4:00 pm ET.
TV: Fox

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #28, Maryland #74
Line:  MSU by 16

Comments:  Maryland is on their 4th quarterback.  Sorry, but game over.  After burning the tape last game, it's time to hit the reset against an offense that couldn't down a whiskey-shine in a shit box.

Predictions:

• Sloth: MSU 6-0
• Big Joe and Phantom 309: MSU 44-17
• RGM3: MSU 35-10
• Debbie Does Texas: MSU 37-21
• Chris Zeck: MSU 2-0.  Walk off safety!
• Brock: Bad weather tomorrow. I’ll go with 14-10 MSU.
• PB crowd:
• RAIDERS Ronnie - MSU 34-14. MSU will score on every offensive possession (include FGs)
• Raiders' better half Mackenna - MSU 28-21
• Skuz:  MSU 34-17
• Gregger:  32-17 Big Green TD Machine
• Antioch C: Home game...mad about last week....running game will get going...sans fumbles... - MSU 24 & UMD 10
• ASHE Jeremy: Bad weather? We got this. 19-18
• Aussie Paul: MSU 56-0

ES sez:  Turtles: Go back to your trailer park.

Final score: Senior Day 31, Trailer Park 13. 

Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Turtles

#27 MSU 2-4/0-3. Maryland 4-2/1-2
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #61, Maryland, #71

Saturday, October 22, 2016.
7:30 pm ET.
Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium, College Park, Maryland
Weather: 51 degrees, windy
TV: BTN, should only be on the radio

Line: MSU by 3 (really?)

First - figure out the name to the stadium.  Byrd Stadium?  Capital One Field?  Maryland Stadium?  Gimme a break.

Second - as my buddy Spaz just put it "How much of the Sparty implosion is the delayed impact of Narduzzi leaving?"  Well, no shit.  This season has been an absolute turd on defense; no pass rush and a decimated linebacking corps = no defense.  These guys are so out of position, it's pathetic.

Third, last week, despite the unfortunate events I went through, I did note that coach D put Tyler O'Connor back into the game in the second half.  Why?  Whenever a team throws for 400+ yards, as MSU did vs Northwestern, it means you lose.  Only 51 yards on the ground?  What???  BUT, GIVING UP 54 POINTS IS PATHETIC.  TO NORTHWESTERN?  MSU STINKS.  Happy Homecoming.

This week, we are in College Park, Maryland.  Lovely.  I didn't know I was traveling to white-trash Melvindale.

Lovely College Park, Maryland.

They moved this gem from Dearborn Heights or Melvindale to College Park

Enough. Time for predictions from the Peanut Barrel:

ES - MSU 38, Maryland 31.
Skooz - MSU 41-37
Brock - Mary 66-15
Joe  - MSU 23-17

Bring on the Buckeyes! 5 Things We Learned From the Spartans' 24-7 Win over Maryland:

1.  We learned we moved up 5 spots to #9 in the AP Poll, and we still control our own destiny.  It's kind of a shock that we zoomed up as much as we did, but we needed the injection. Damn it feels good to be back where we belong.  Because we won and belong with the elite, ESPN Game Day is going to that crap town in Ohio to cover the Spartans for the THIRD TIME this year.  Wow - three times in one year?  We're 2-0 on Game Day this year, baby.  Bring on the Bucks.

2.  Tailgates are awesome.  We're playing the Turtles for Godssakes, let's concentrate on the party.  Kudos to my neighbors, Rick and Joe, who invited me and my new bud, Brock, to a killer tailgate by the Auditorium - great, spicy, sausages while we brought our travelers from the Peanut Barrel.  Sunny, warm, toasty, tasty, and spicy.   What a grand day for playing the sisters of the poor.

3.  We need Connor Cook to be healthy.  Sweet Jesus, we only gained 262 total yards against Maryland, and Tyler O'Connor was just 6-11 for 44 yards.  We need that prolific offense to be just that - prolific.  And, Cook is key.  It's only the third time in the past two years in the regular season we scored less than 30 points.

4.  "Break a bottle, clean up your own mess."  Just don't break a beer bottle in line to get into Spartan Stadium.  They ain't janitors.

5.  When Maryland comes to town, drink water.  Lots of it.  Helps with the beer.

I don't think I'm going to Ohio State game, despite the hype.  Buckeye fans are the WORST.

Enlightened Spartan Preview: Mich State vs the Turtles of Maryland

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #22, Turtles #79

MSU: 8-1/4-1. Maryland:  2-7/0-5
Saturday, November 14, 2015. 12 pm ET.

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI.

Weather: 51 degrees, clear skies.  C-c-c-cold.  

Line:  MSU favored by 16, wind 9 mph West

TV:  ESPN2

The ES is with April Jones at the Peanut Barrel, still hungover from the bullshit screwjob loss to Nebraska. We preview the Maryland game and have some picks from the locals... including a walkup to the bar with Joe!

Today's Menu: Maryland Turtle Soup

#12 Michigan State Spartans (7-2, 4-1) at Maryland Terrapins (6-3, 3-2)

November 15, 2014.  8 pm ET.
Byrd Stadium, College Park, MD

Capacity: 51,802
ABC-TV

Line:  Spartans by 12

Weather:  35, no wind.

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #12, Maryland #40

Predictions & Previews: 

Baltimore Sun: Zenitz, MSU 40-20; Stubs, MSU 35-24; Cavanagh, MSU 49-20

Det News: Charboneau, MSU 44-24, Changelis, MSU 31-10; Wojo, MSU 37-20; Niyo, MSU 31-21

LSJ:  Couch, MSU 38-20; Rexrode, MSU 38-20; Solari, MSU 41-10; Calloway, MSU 42-24

CFN/Scout: MSU, 37-17

Odd Shark:  MSU 38.9-26.1

ES sez:

This is kinda a yawner; mind you, Maryland will be fired up for this game, even though its best offensive threat is out for the season.  Ouch if you are a Terp.  The Big Green is coming to DC, and should put a pretty good pounding to the newbies on the block.  Watch for a few fake plays out of the Big Green - we're due for a fake kick... and plenty of reverses.  Statistically, this is a bad matchup:

Maryland Offense vs MSU Defense: Advantage MSU. 

Maryland Pass Offense 228.6 ypg (#69) vs MSU Pass Defense 196.9 ypg (#23) 

Maryland Rush Offense 125.9 ypg (#103) vs MSU Rush Defense 114.6 ypg (#13)  

MSU Offense vs Maryland Defense:  Advantage MSU.

MSU Rush Offense 246.3 ypg (#91) vs Maryland Rush Defense 193.4 ypg (#96)

MSU Pass Offense 271.2 ypg (#34) vs Maryland Pass Defense 238.3 ypg (#81)

Not much more to see or to say on this one.  Michigan State 42, Maryland 17.

MSU drops to #12, favored by 12 at Maryland

Oh well,  Shit happens.

On the upside, Michigan State is favored by 12 at Maryland.  The Big Green moved down to #12 after their disappointing loss to Ohio State.

AP Top 25
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Mississippi State (48)	9-0	1488
2	Florida State (12)	9-0	1446
3	Oregon	9-1	1334
4	Alabama	8-1	1326
5	TCU	8-1	1273
6	Baylor	8-1	1193
7	Arizona State	8-1	1142
8	Ohio State	8-1	1086
9	Auburn	7-2	981
10	Ole Miss	8-2	948
11	Nebraska	8-1	830
12	Michigan State	7-2	782
13	Kansas State	7-2	742
14	UCLA	8-2	691
15	Notre Dame	7-2	630
16	Georgia	7-2	622
17	Arizona	7-2	471
18	Clemson	7-2	457
19	Duke	8-1	431
20	LSU	7-3	429
21	Marshall	9-0	297
22	Wisconsin	7-2	225
23	Colorado State	9-1	128
24	Georgia Tech	8-2	127
25	Utah	6-3	87

• Dropped from rankings: Oklahoma 16, West Virginia 24
• Others receiving votes: Oklahoma 85, Texas A&M 83, Missouri 68, USC 47, Minnesota 26, Louisville 12, West Virginia 6, Stanford 4, Boise State 1, Georgia Southern 1, Miami (FL) 1

Watching the Big Green Swamp Maryland at Pete's Tavern in SFO

Here is the story of my buddy, C, and his experience at Pete's Tavern in San Francisco, sitting along side Jehuu Caulcrick, watching the Big Green down Maryland:

------

First, the setting: the game is at 11:30AM Pacific time. The SF MSU alumn sends out the Facebook update to get everyone to watch the game at Pete's Tavern - a pretty big sized sports bar right across from the Giants AT&T ballpark, and 2 blocks from DGold's (Darrel Goldstein, remember from the MSU days?) pad.

I roll in the bar about 45min before the game. It's still pretty empty except for some Maryland fans in red who already have seats at the giant U shaped bar in the middle of the place. As soon as I enter, some big dude wearing green calls out to me - "hey Michigan State, right on" He and I are both making our way to belly up to the bar. He shakes my hand, asks my name, we sit down together at the bar, I ask his name. He says "Jay hu". I'm like "oh, Jay hu same name that our old running back had. Cool". We order drinks, he introduces me to this MSU grad chica friend he's with and we shoot the shit about the game and whether Morgan is going to play well, etc.

The conversation turns to when and why I moved out to California. I ask him, what brought you out here. He says "football" ... very long pause on my part as I suddenly put two and two together and realize that this is Jehuu Caulcrick. In other words, I'm sitting here having drinks and shooting the shit with Jehuu fricken Caulcrick. The same dude who I cheered on every Saturday from 2004-2007 as he ran the football down the throats of opposing teams and in to the end zone to score a MSU touchdown. That Jehuu Caulcrick. Nice.

He's mentioning that he's now with the 49ers and is talking about that. I'm trying to act all cool and shit, but right the fuck on ... me and Jehuu are having cocktails and talking Michigan State Basketball. I talk him into switching from the Mimosa's over the the Bloody Mary. Shannon and Keely come over and sit down next to me on the other side. Then the DGold rolls in. I put him in a seat next to Jehuu. He's even more clueless about who this is than I was ... rambling on telling Jehuu about his cell phone service provider and other equally as interesting topics. I don't fill DGold in on who he is until about half time of the game.

The bar fills up with MSU alums. They all surround tables and the bar around the area on the bar where we are sitting. We're now really outnumbering the Maryland folks. In fact, probably outnumbering the Maryland and the Cornell and Ohio State fans (who are filing in for their games) probably all put together at this point. Game starts, the bar is full, the bloodys then beers flow well, the Go Green and Go White chants ring through the bar and we're catching State playing some fantastic ball. Jehuu is very knowledgable about his MSU baskball. We're talking about Izzo's sub patterns, we're evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of each of our guys, he's anticipating that Morgan will have a hot game. DGold's pointing out the fact that his cell phone has apps too.

We're in high heaven until about 4 minutes left in the game when Maryland makes their run. The nerves start running high. Bunch of turnovers by us and easy baskets by them. Nerves running very high. DGold notices the game and exclaims "look, they're only down by 4 now". Right DGold. This game isn't ours. The game momentum is shifting. If we pull this one out, I'm doing a body surf down this bar. Shit, we're only up by 2. Fuck, we're actually behind now! Time out with 35 seconds left and us down by one. Maryland fans cheering loud. Dead quiet near us and the State fans. Every one on their feet. Long time out so I (and the beer in my belly) fire up the one obnoxious man rant, loudly proclaiming: we ain't losing this one. no problem. what the hell. Morgan. Roe. Fricken Summers. Green! We ain't losing this thing. Look, sucks that Maryland made a run but come on, this one is ours.

Ball is inbounded. Green with a quick jumper for 2. State fans cheer wildly. We're back on top with 20 some seconds left. Maryland runs it down and makes a quick layup. Maryland fans go wild ... ball quickly inbounded, Green runs it up, pass to Lucious. He drains a 3 with no time left. State fans at the bar erupt. I erupt. Jumping up and down, high fiveing everyone in site ... it's loud and mayhem ... suddently I find myself mounting up on a bar stool. I have one foot on the stool the other up on the bar, pump the fist in the air and CRASH. I punch the shit out of the big glass lamp hanging above the bar sending shards of glass and lightbulb everywhere. Before I know it I'm surrounded by 3 bouncers and, after quickly settling by tab, get whisked out of the building, pausing to shake hands and say bye to Jehuu and high five a couple of other Spartans on the way out.

What a game. We had to go across town to another bar just to watch the replays of the shot.

Epilogue - If you're keeping track at home, here's the final tally from the second annual "c's SF bracket pub crawl" (original schedule below):

* Games watched @ the bar: 72
* Days taken off of work: 2
* # of different bars hit: 6 (The Kezar Pub, The Bus Stop, Greens Sports Bar, Conneticut Yankee, Petes Tavern, the Final Final)
* Broken lighting fixtures: 1
* # of bars 86ed from: 1
* # of people who participated: 7

Michigan State is still swinging and we'll be down at the Kezar Pub this evening to cheer them on. Join if you can. Next year, you out of towners should plan a trip out here for it. Go State!

Mich State favored by 1.5 over Northern Iowa

Michigan State is back to the Sweet 16, and the Big Ten Conference co-champion is listed as a 1 1/2-point favorite over Northern Iowa. The other two Big Ten co-champs: Purdue is an 8-point underdog at Duke, and Ohio State is favored by 5 over Tennessee. It would be sweet indeed to get a rematch with Ohio State for rights to go to Indianapolis in the Final Four

INJURY UPDATE: A ruptured Achilles' tendon in Kalin Lucas' left foot has been confirmed; he will need surgery and he will be out 4-6 months. Hopefully the additional rest will help Chris Allen's ankle heal enough to have a greater role vs Northern Iowa; Delvon Roe's knees are killing him and he may need surgery after the season. Hang in there, guys... leave it on the court. Damn you're a fun team to watch.

BIG TEN vs BIG LEAST: What about the Big Least and the Big Ten? All year long, everyone is talking down the Big Ten as a weak conference and the Big Least as the best conference in basketball. This discussion has been going on for years, matter of fact. And last year, well Michigan State defeated two #1-seeds back-to-back, both from the Big Least, in Louisville and UConn. And this year, West Virginia and Syracuse are all that are left... while the Big Ten has three teams in, all its regular season co-champs. When will people wake up that the Big Ten is superior to the Big Least? The numbers just prove it. We're among the last ones standing, again.

GREAT COMMENT BY REXRODE: "And how about this game, where does it rank? I claim most dramatic shot and win in MSU NCAA history. Steve Smith had a buzzer beater to beat Tony Bennett and UW-GM in 1991. But it was a tie game. This was a win-or-lose shot. And although the MSU-Kentucky game of 2005 is hard to top (and is still a "bigger" game because it was for the Final Four), I think this one buries it. No question. The last two minutes, the speed of it all, the emotional swings on both benches, were like nothing I've seen in person on a basketball court."

AWESOME ARTICLES by MIKE ROSENBURG/Freep: here (Mar 22) and here (Mar 23).

SWEET 16 AGAIN, Baby!!!! Michigan State 85, Maryland 83

Wow. Wow. Wow. Wow. Wow. Watch the video below. I've seen it 10 times now.

The ES is in Boston right now, so haven't been able to post actively but HOLY SHIT with today's game. The barn-burner of the whole tournament, with Michigan State victorious! Korie Lucious bails out the Spartans with a buzzer beating three. Gorgeous play... that last 30 seconds of the game were stunning, exactly what you hope to see out of basketball. No timeouts. Not stoppage in play. Just guys laying it out on the floor. That Velazquez (?) kid from Maryland was a stud. But, Raymar Morgan (17 pts, 9 reb, 2 asts) played the best game of his career, just a BEAST. Durrell Summers (26 pts, 4 rebs) picked one helluva day to be sharp-shooting, going 6-of-7 behind the arc and 10-14 overall. MSU shot 55% to Maryland's 44%, and hit 11-14 free throws. We outrebounded the Terps 35-21. But, the 18 turnovers (6 for MD) nearly did us in. But we won. Jesus it feels good... EVERYONE here in Boston is talking about the Spartan game, just an amazing performance.

THIS IS THE GREATEST NCAA TOURNAMENT IN HISTORY, and Michigan State is IN IT. Stunner after stunner after stunner. UNI is a great team; they kicked Kansas' ass up and down the court all game long. St. Mary's Australian National Team just smoked Villanova;

Kalin Lucas is done, likely for the year, with a torn achilles. That sucks. But, you know what, its tourney time and kids step up. And, we need to be on our best game to play an extremely good Northern Iowa team. This ain't Kansas folks... UNI is better. That team, especially that big ugly white Irishman with the red pork chops, they are extremely good -- a top 10 team. MSU will need to play its best to win.



I'm crying watching the kids rush the court, and Izzo hugging Lucas. Brings a freaking tear to the eye, it is gorgeous.

But, to the victors go the spoils. WE WON!!! Izzo iz a genius come tourney time and they've done it again! The 9th Sweet 16 in the past 11-12 years? That's just ridiculously consistently great. Congrats.

Tipoff vs. UNI: 9:40 pm on Friday. See you at the Peanut Barrel for what aims to be another wild continuation of the greatest weekend in basketball history. Wow.