TRIFECTA HITS AGAIN! MSU wins, UM gets its ass kicked, ND loses to the MAC

TRIFECTA IN FAVOR OF MICHIGAN STATE... AGAIN!!!!!

With MSU’s dramatic win over Maryland 27-24 (the ES predicted MSU would win 26-24), combined with the gutting of scUM by Texas, 31-12, and the disaster by the Right Wing Irish to lowly Northern Illinois at home 16-14… WE HIT THE TRIFECTA!!!

This is rare, for MSU to win on the same weekend that Michigan and Notre Dame lose.  It’s a great feeling. I hate those two football teams more than any other in college football, because they’ve had enough time winning. Share the wealth.  The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

From 2015-2024, the Trifecta ooccured 4 times, including today (Sep 7, 2024).  (4 times over 120 weekends = 3.3% frequency).

• From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
• From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
• Seven times in the past 57 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
• Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009 and the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
• There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 57 years. 

Below is a list of the few Trifectas since 2014, and you can link to a previous post from the ES back in 2014 which outlined all of this data back into ancient history.

Date	MSU	ND	MICH
9/7/24	W, 27-24 MD	L, 14-16 NIU	L, 12-31 TEX
9/21/19	W, 31-10 NW	L, 17-23 GA	L 14-35, WIS
11/25/17	W, 40-7 RUT	L, 20-38 STAN	L, 20-31 OHST
11/28/15	W, 55-16 PSU	L, 36-38 STAN	L, 13-42 OHST

Here’s the link to before 2015: https://enlightenedspartan.blogspot.com/2014/11/michigan-state-hits-rare-2-weekend.html

ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Turtles

Welcome to College Park Maryland, aka Melvindale, Michigan

Michigan State Spartans (1-0) at Maryland Turtles (1-0)

SECU Stadium.  College Park, Maryland

September 7, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.

Weather: 73 and partly cloudy. 

Sagarin Ratings: Michigan State #80. Maryland #37.  

Line Outta Vegas: Maryland by around 9 points.  

About the Sagarin Ratings.  Why the hell does the ES use this?  Many reasons.  First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99.  So - there is some smarmy connection there.  Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS).  As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).  

So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her.  So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.  

So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285

Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas.  I hope she’s wrong. 

The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland.  The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium.  Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke.  The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game.  So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans.  It was weird.   As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster.  All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town. 

Hopefully, we can return the favor to beat the former Chancellor's school today...

In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan.  We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years.  He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.”  He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.”  He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better.  But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss. 

That’s some of my Maryland experiences.  

How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?”  I dunno.  What do you think?

Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season.  I am leaning toward the former.

Big Bob: MD 31-17

Aussie Paul:  MSU 44-0

Uncle Denny: MSU 31-28

PB Skooz: 34-21 Good Guys
Lansing Doc:  MSU 23-19

Pontiac Keith: Maryland 28-13

SF Chock Maryland 28-10

ES sez, MSU surprises, 26-24

ES Preview: Spartans at U-Dubb

#9/#11 Michigan State University at University of Washington
September 16, 2022. 4:30 pm. PT.
Husky Stadium, Seattle.

TV: ABC

Weather:  63 and cloudy

Sagarin Ratings:  UW #21, Michigan State #24

Line outta Vegas:  UW by 3-1/2

The ES is in town for the MSU-UW tilt, and visited his friend (a professor at UW) yesterday.  Walking the streets, going up to the rooftop at the Graduate hotel, lots of GO GREEN GO WHITE!  My friend said “what if I just say GO WHITE”?  I said “it would fall on deaf ears, you gotta say GO GREEN and the other says GO WHITE!”  She was impressed by the enthusiasm of us Spartoonies. Right on!

View from the Graduate Hotel, UW District

UW has Michael Penix, the former Indiana QB that torched us for a few years before transferring.  UW is averaging a whopping 571 yards per game on offense.  That will test the Spartan secondary.  Expect Penix to put up some points. Wait, who have the Huskies played?  Nobody, just like Michigan State.  There’s plenty of API talent on the UW roster with names I can’t pronounce.  

But, MSU has its pair of RBs: Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger, runs hard and fast and leans forward; Colorado transfer David Broussard dances through tough traffic to find yards. The pair make a good duo, averaging 5.7 ypc and 228 ypg, good for 24tth in the country.  Payton Thorne has underperformed, throwing off his back foot and overthrowing receivers; he needs to be solid.  Thorne is a fourth-quarter QB, and improves as the games go along.  He's a gamer.  Let’s hope Jaylen Reed returns for MSU after the injury vs. WMU. Expect points on this end.

This game will come up to turnovers and possibly the kicking game.  The ES was telling his dad our punter, the bespectacled Bryce Ballinger, can flip a field and drop a punt inside the 10; he’s ranked #21 in net punting at 43 ypg.  That might bode well for the Spartans in this game and help the defense by giving UW a long field.  Washington’s net punting, with Jack McCallister, is ranked #79 at 39 ypg.  MSU’s kicker, Jack Stone, is fresh outta high school, an 18-year-old, and is 1-2 on the season.  Untested, indeed.  UW has an advantage here, with senior Peyton Henry 2-2 on the season.  Last year, he was 11-14, but only with a long of 38 yards (0-3 beyond 40 yards).  

I'm guessing 20,000 Spartans will fill the 73,000-seat Husky Stadium.  Watch a back-and-forth game, momentum back and forth, with the game hinging on a turnover and field position.  That gives MSU an advantage.  Despite the 0-13 history regular season out west dating back to a win over Cal in 1957, expect the Big Green TD Machine to notch a win.

Prognostications:

College FB HQ/Fan Nation:  UW 31, MSU 25

CFN: UW 27, MSU 23

MLive: MSU 30, UW 27

LSJ:  MSU 31, UW 24

The Only Colors: MSU 24, UW 27

Sporting News: MSU 28, UW 23

ES Sez:  James Caan 31, Bruce Lee 27. 

Goodbye

As noted by the ES earlier this year, and as it came true, coach Dantonio thankfully gave the Spartan Nation relief and retired from coaching MSU football.  Thanks for the memories, but the last four years were particularly painful.  While expected eventually (sooner than later), the timing was odd with national recruiting signing day today (Feb 5).  Although coach D never had a "stellar" recruiting class, in his best years at MSU it seemed he always coached players up.... yet, 

...the last several years saw no improvement from beginning to end of the year, injuries mounting  consistently, and his recruiting has him into significant legal trouble with his role in recruiting "bad" folk (one of whom is still in prison)...  and recent allegations of NCAA violations - which may have been the final straw for him to call it quits.  But, from a football fan's perspective, Coach D served longer than necessary, and was incapable of making the tough decisions to improve the football team above average: coach D's inability to fire his staff who put Spartan footballers in bad positions, terrible play calls time and again, strange personnel substitutions of inexperienced players at critical times in games, and publicly supporting his staff's poor decisions.  He looked tired and lost his edge.

But, hanging the Spartan nation out to dry for a $4.3 million bonus  is really not the best way to leave.  Most of us in life would love a multi-million dollar bonus for our 10+ years of work, but to take it and then walk away two weeks later really is thankless.

Loved your goodbye message at the Spartan men's basketball game:  15 seconds was as much as the ES could bear to hear.  Kind of interesting, your appearance was vicissitudinous: MSU lost the game.

Thanks for the first 10 years and goodbye.

Coach Dantonio's mood since 2016

Thank you, sir. May I have another?

MSU Spartans (4-5/2-4) vs Michigan Wolverines (8-2/4-2)
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
November 16, 2019. 9 am Pacific Time.

Weather:  does it matter?

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #30, scUM #11
Vegas Line: scUM by 13-1/2

Prognostications:

Thank God the ES is visiting his pops in Gig Harbor, Washington State.  Thusly, the game is at 9 am. The whole day to enjoy with family after the ass kicking from scUM!

Tomorrow will be yet another poor showing - this time against the Evil Empire. Make it 5 losses in a row. This coach, Mark Dantonio, is clueless and relies on buffoons to coach the walking wounded. 'Tis clear as day: point to consistent years of poor substitutions and curiously poor clock management. Not to mention poor execution. Unfortunately, Coach Dantonio is using the playbook from John L Smith.  Only God knows why.

Against Michigan, a day at the woodshed will be the icing on the cake for Dantonio’s departure.

It’s the end of the world as we know it. And I feel fine.  Thank you sir, may I have another?

• Sloth: Dantonio is fired by Monday morning. F**k that asshole.
• Cam: I probably wasted 100 dollars on a ticket
• Keith: pset....sparty wins. . Because thats what happens when everybody loses hope. Naaaahhhh. Were gonna get killed.
• Chock: scUM 10, MSU 6
• Smig: I predict a bloodbath.
• RGM3: 2-0 Michigan. Another sad day in paradise. Hopefully dantonio tells the players he’s retiring at the end of the season tomorrow in his pregame speech and gets the boys ready for one more Michigan game for him.
• GVSU Gregger: 34-10 Michigan.
• Big Joe and Phantom 309: 30-24 MSU blocks a game winning FG for scUM and runs it back for a TD as time expires.
• Australian Paul:  MSU 21-7
• Mike (ES’ Dad): scUM 28-7
• Queen Kat, Duchess of Kirkcaldy: scUM 21-10

ES sez: scUM 41-10

ES Preview: We don't need no stinkin' Badgers

Michigan State Spartans (4-2/2-1) at #8 Wisconsin Badgers (5-0/2-0)
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
October 12, 2019.  3:30 pm ET.
TV:  BTN
Weather: 48/cloudy.  It's windy - 19 mph SW

We don't need no stinkin' Badgers!

Line outta Vegas:  Wisky by 10
Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #15, Wisky #6

Prognostications:

Well, it's going to be cold and windy.  So, expect the Big Green to give up the running game and start throwing the ball into the wind, to be picked off time and again by the nation's #1 defense in Wisky (179 ypg).  Which means the nation's #2 ground gainer, Wisky's Jonathan Taylor (149 ypg), may just dice up this Spartan defense which  struggled against the run against Ohio State.

Sigh.  Saw this game last year in the agonizing RedBox bowl game, a 7-6 loss.  At least the ES is going to the Big D (Ole Shellelagh) to witness the slaughter... and go check out a winner - the 3-1 Detroit Red Wings vs the Toronto Maple Leafs!

• Wisconsin State Journal: Wisky 21-13
• Australian Paul:  MSU 14-10.
• RGM3: Wisky 21-13.
• Big Joe and Phantom 309: Wisky 35-6
• GVSU Gregger: Wisky 28-10. 
• Chris Zech:  Wisky 37-24.  Whiskey in a Jar.
• Chef Tom (Glen Arbor): Straight Whiskey.
• Eric J-A (Madison): Wisconsin 24-10. I will be at the game cheering for Bucky and empathizing with State fans. MSU wins only via injury or turnovers.
• Doc: MSU 16-13. ES is so drunk by halftime, he misses Sparty pull it out.
• Oakland Ronnie: MSU 23-10.
• Keith: Wisky 24-10.
• Carter (Bay Area, Cali): Wisky 35-14.
• CHock (San Francisco): Wisky 12-6.
• Sloth (Pittsburgh): Wisky 31-0.
• Big Bob (Kzoo): Wisky 31-17.
• The Future Queen of Scotland, Brexit Deal Be Damned (Detroit): Wisky 31-27.

ES sez...  Sparty 7, Wisky 21.  The march to greatness ends. 

No Offense vs. Good Coaching

Coach D and the Spartans

MSU Spartans (2-1/0-0) vs Northwestern Wildcats (1-1/0-0)
Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
September 21, 2019,  Noon ET.
TV: ABC

Line:  MSU by 8-1/2?  They're smoking dope in Vegas

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #15, Northwestern #57

In East Lansing, John L. Smith has returned to overthink the offense.  Why play your best running back (Collins) at the most important times?  Naaahhh, let's substitute him with someone (Hayward) who can't juke past a dying rhino.  Better yet, when we have time, let's run a Chinese fire-drill with time ticking down to kick a field goal... instead of spiking the ball to give the team more time!

This coach we have is being paid very well.  $4.39 million dollars this year, to be exact.  Yet, the Dr. of Excuses says "everything is happening real time, very fast" can't use his experience to save our skins.  Throwing the ball in 50 mph winds in a bowl game (RedBox), or ditching an effective run game to pass in sub-zero temperatures in BFE Nebraska, or switching to your backup QB on 4th down to run into a pile (Tulsa), or mismanaging the entire season by playing a hurt QB...  This is getting old.

As said countless times: MSU is is going to WASTE another dominating defense because of stupid coaching on the offense.  This is an average team at best. Coach Dantonio has lost his way.
 https://www.mlive.com/sports/2019/09/michigan-state-in-danger-of-wasting-another-dominant-defense-as-2018-season-seems-to-roll-on.html

Coach Fitzpatrick is EXACTLY what you want in a coach.  Putting his best players on the field at the best time and giving his players the best opportunities to win.  Our coach, takes our best players out and overthinks himself.  What happened to Coach D?  His trick plays?  Coaching up 3-star recruits?  He seems lost.

This hurts to write this, but it is true.  He didn't fire anyone.  Dr. Excuses, the "foxhole" guy will be loyal to the point of losing.  And, he has lost this faithful Spartan.

8-1/2 point favorites?   Shit, we can't even score more than 7.

Predictions:

• Big Joe & Phantom 309 (metro D): 12-10 MSU the offense scores 3 points and the defense gets a TD and a safety to secure the game
• GVSU Gregger (Gr Rapids):  MSU 24-17
• RGM3 (Farm Hills): MSU 21-10
• The Queen of Scotland (NY, NY):  AWOL
• J Dog (Clarkston): MSU 17-13 in OT
• CHock (San Francisco, CA):  NW 28-24
• Keith (Pontiac):  MSU 20-17
• Sloth (Pittsburgh, PA):  Frustration
• Smig (Santa Rosa, CA): NW 14-3
• Big Bob (Kzoo): NW 20-14. MSU’s offense will be twice as gooderer at moving the ball between the 20 yard lines as last week, so they will generate 808 yards of offense and lose the game 20-14. CHOCK response: "How the fuck will they ever score 14 points Big Bob? 6 Point Mark's offense is fine tuned for 2 made field goals (except last week, substitute 1 made TF... about the same)." BIG BOB response: "Easy. The D will have to score the 2nd TD."

ES (en route to be with J in Clarkston):  NW 10-6

MSU Spartans vs Kalamazoo Broncos

Michigan State (#19/20, 1-0/0-0) vs waterlogged Western Michigan (1-0/0-0)

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Saturday, September 7, 2019.  7:30 pm ET
TV: Big Ten Network
Weather:  70 & cloudy, wind 10 mph WNW

Vegas Line:  MSU by 16

Jeff Sagarin Ratings/Line:  MSU #23, WMU #75.  MSU by 16

Are the Broncos or the Spartans under water?

The Enlightened Spartan has decided the permanence of the Spartans' offensive futility agAinst anyone!  This truly is Sparta 300.  Defend until the death.  Wait to be attacked.  Do not go on offense.  Prepare for Battle! The best thing for the Spartans?  Get the offense OFF the field.  They suck so bad - the defense can score more than the offense.

FYI - Top 5 rush defenses in the NCAA after week 1:
5.  Penn State = 4 ypg
4.  Central Florida = 4 ypg
3.  Maryland = 1 ypg
2.  Syracuse = -4 ypg
1.  Michigan State = -73 ypg

Prognostications:

• MLive:  MSU 34-7
• Freep: MSU 27-7/MSU 17-7/MSU 24-10
• DetNews: MSU 31-13/MSU 24-6/MSU 34-14/MSU 27-13
• Big Joe and Phantom 309: MSU 21-6.
• GVSU Gregger: MSU 35-10.
• RGM3:  MSU 34-13
• Chef Tom: Spartan Defense outscores Western 16-3.
• Sloth: WMU wins, 2-0, when Salem calls a jet sweep out of his end zone.
• Big Bob's prediction:  MSU 15-14.  "Ok. Enough of this retirement gibberish. My prediction for the game tomorrow: MSU kicks five FGs and wins 15-14. A pathetic way to win. Matt Coghlin goes on to score all of MSU’s points for the rest of the season and wins the Heisman trophy... If I had to sit in the stadium and watch this offense struggle to keep up with a MAC team, I’d gouge my eyes out. Better to watch it on TV, so when that happens, I can turn it off and walk away.
• Kat:  MSU 17-3.
• Australia Paul: 21-17 MSU

ES sez:  Spartan defense does its thang, and nearly pitches a shutout.  Offense struggles again, gives up a pick 6 - talk is cheap.... prove it!   MSU 24-10.

ES Preview: MSU Spartans host Tulsa Time

Michigan State Spartans (0-0, #18/20) vs Don Williams, The Gentle Giant (0-0)

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
August 30, 2019.  7 pm ET
TV:  Fox Sports 1
Weather: 72, partly cloudy, 8 mph wind WNW

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #20,  Tulsa #111.  Projected margin of victory:  MSU by 25
Line outta Vegas:  MSU by 23 1/2

Never been to Tulsa.  The ES has been to Oklahoma - actually Norman, OK for an interview at the Univ of Oklahoma (ugly) where a tornado blast through the town, hitting the ES with hail on his 2012 visit.  Didn't care for the state then, and don't care today - especially today.

The Tulsa Hurricanes waltz into town coming off a 3-9 season.  Let's do a little quiz:

1.  What conference is Tulsa in?  a) Sun Belt b) AAC c) Independent d) Conference USA e) Big 12.
2.  Did former Ohio State Coach John Cooper really win five consecutive conference championships as coach at Tulsa?  a) Duh b) Nope
3.  Tulsa is a girls' school.  It is, or it was.   a) True  b) False
4.  Which infamous songwriter has an archive at U Tulsa?  (hint: "to be stuck inside of Mobile with the Memphis blues again")

Answers at the bottom of the post.

Predictions for today's stint:

Tulsa World (newspaper): MSU 30-14
Sloth:  Sunny, warm, and drunk
Big Bob:  MSU 7-2.  MSU will win 7-2 with the defense scoring the only TD in the game. Rocky Balboa will be sacked in his own end zone, giving up 2 points in his only series in the game.
RGM3:  MSU 38-10
Oakland Ronnie:  MSU 42-10
GVSU Gregger:  MSU 34-17
Freep:  MSU 33-6
Wojo/Det News:  MSU 30-9
Sensoli: Dantonio is going to switch around his coaching staff again......42-14 MSU
Kat:  still sleeping...

ES sez:  MSU 30-6






Answers (ES tried to turn the font upside down, but that's out of his league in HTML):

1.  b) American Athletic Conference (AAC). Have not.
2.  a) Yes, he did.  Mr. Cooper is a member of the College FB Hall of Fame, he is.
3.  a) True. If you're from Tulsa, you don't smoke marijuana but you're proud to be an Okie from Muskogee.  From Wiki: The Presbyterian School for Girls (also known as "Minerva Home") was founded in Muskogee, Indian Territory, in 1882 to offer a primary education to young women of the Creek Nation.  The Tulsa Chamber of Commerce bought the school for $100k in 1907 with 20 acres of land to relocate it.

4.  Noble Prize winner for Literature, Bob Dylan.  See the archives.  Even so, still don't wanna go back to Oklahoma. 

ES Preview: Rocky at Corn

Michigan State Spartans (6-4, 4-3) at Nebraska (3-7, 2-5)
November 17, 2018.  12 Noon ET

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE
TV:  Fox
Weather:  29, cloudy, with 23 mph winds.  Nipply cold!

Line:  MSU favored by 1-1/2 . No longer!  Nebraska now favored by 1

Sagarin Ratings:  MSU #21, Nebraska #61

I hate corn.  If we don't beat the Corn, we a-gonna go to the Toilet Bowl.  By the way, Lincoln, Nebraska sucks for a town.

Predictions:

Kate:  MSU 10-7
Big Bob:  MSU 2-0.
RGM3:  MSU 14-10. An absolute barn burner.
CHock:  Nebraska 35-31.
Australia Paul:   MSU 45-0.
Big Joe and Phantom 309:  MSU 24, Cornfuckers 10.
Sloth:  Nepotism 42, Sloth 0.
Kelly: MSU 17-14...two TDS scored by our defense and one field goal that Nebraska kicks in the wrong end zone
Chef Tom: Even, pick-em

ES sez:  Rocky 21, Corn 20.

ES Preview: MSU at the Coachless Terps

Nothing like a Mercedes hood on a Geo Metro. 
Welcome to Maryland, folks

This is College Park, MD.  The ES is in the middle of a firestorm, here in our nation's capitol, as the football coach for the University of Maryland gets sacked for intimidation and inappropriate behavior toward the players.  I just harken back to my visit at Maryland a few years back.  I've returned, and God help me.

Michigan State Spartans (5-3, 3-2) at Maryland Terrapins (5-3, 3-2)
Time and Tube:  Noon/ESPN2
Capitol One Field at Maryland Stadium
Weather:  54 degrees, sunny, 14 mph winds

Line from Vegas:  Big Green by 2-1/2

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #26, Maryland #49

So, who's a-gonna win?

ES' handywork in DC, graffiti-wall painting the night before
the big game....

Predictions:

Kat:  MSU 21-7
Big Bob:  MSU 21-17
John Tull:  MSU 34-31
RGM3:  MSU 28-17
Big Joe and Phantom 309: Rocky 35, Turtle Soup 21
Australia Paul:  MSU 45-0
CHock:  MSU 31-17

ES sez:  MSU 28-14