Statistically speaking.... MSU lines dominate

Order is being restored to the Big Ten and early prognostications, now that we're in the midway of college football season. The early favorites, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Wisky are at the top half of the leaderboard. Michigan has shown its real, pink colors and has dropped to 1-2 around the cellar with Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue. If the favorites win in the Penn State-Minny stint (Joe Pa) and the MSU-NW stint (Big Green), order will be just about completely restored to pundits' preseason predictive levels.

So, what is the main reason for MSU's success in recent weeks? Surprisingly, it is the offensive and defensive lines of Michigan State. A question mark early in the year, the interior play has been able to out-muscle and out-hustle other teams to victory on both sides of the ball.

The offensive line, despite injuries, is the biggest surprise for the Spartans -- and it has opened enough holes for a running game averaging 143 yards per game (160 in Big Ten play), and over 190 yards in each of the last two contests. And, with six sacks allowed (5 in Big Ten play), it is leading the conference and 16th in the nation in protecting the quarterbacks, Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins.

On defense, Michigan State's early pass defense hemorrhaging woes have seemingly dissipated the past two weeks. The Spartans put consistent pressure on scUM's Tate Forcier (2 sacks) and had a season high six sacks on Illinois quarterbacks. Forcier struggled for much of the game, and finished 17-32-1-233 largely from the final two drives of the game; McGee/Williams finished 9-28-1-140 and were running for their lives most of the day.

The lines on both sides also contribute to the Spartans dominating time of possession. Against scUM, Michigan State had offensive drives of 17, 11, 10, 8, 8, 6, 4, and just three 3-and-outs. Defensively, the Spartans held scUM to drives of 15, 12, 5, 5, 4, 4, and six 3-and-outs. That led to a dominating 78-60 total plays in MSU's favor, and a 39:46 TOP. Against the Illini, it was a similar result: on offense, MSU created possessions of 13, 11, 7, 7, 6, 6, 4, and five 3-and-outs. Defensively, the Spartans held the Zooks to 10, 9, 8, 5, 5, 4, and seven 3-and-outs. That's 70-60 total plays in MSU's favor and a dominating 36:07 TOP.

If you want to argue that it took MSU four games to "grow up" - when they entered the Big Ten season - you might have a good argument. Looking at the Big Ten-only stats and not the national stats, and you get a different picture of the Spartan team... one whose defense isn't as porous the last three games as it was the previous three:

Scoring Offense: MSU #5 (26.7 ppg); Pass Offense: MSU #3 (265.0 ypg); Rush Offense: MSU #4 (160.0 ypg); Total Offense: MSU #1 (425. ypg). Sacks against: MSU #4 (5); TOP: MSU #2 (32:48);

Scoring Defense: MSU #4 (24.0 ppg); Pass Defense: MSU #7 (202.0 ypg); Rush Defense: MSU #4 (117.7 ypg); Total Defense: MSU #4 (319.7 ypg); Sacks by: MSU #2 (10).

Next up: Northwestern, and the Spartan interior must be licking its chops again.

Michigan State Spartans favored by 4 at Illinois

The early line out of LSVC in Las Vegas is that your Michigan State Spartan gridders are a 4-point favorite at woeful Illinois this weekend. Iowa is favored by a TD at home over scUM. Ohio State is favored by 16 at home over Wisky. Minny is favored by 4.5 at home over Purdue. Northwestern is favored by 23 at home over Miami-Ohio. Indiana is a 6.5-point underdog at Virginia.

Oh yes, maybe after Michigan State's resounding victory at home over scUM, where we snatched victory from the jaws of defeat -- despite pounding the little yellow men all day -- is clearly the dawn of a new era. No, these ain't yer Same Old Spartans. Time to continue the momentum this weekend against an Illinois team running a similar offense as scUM. It was nice to see the Spartan defense dominate the line of scrimmage (such as holding scUM to under 30 yards rushing is a nice feat), and also nice to see very solid play at QB from Keith Nichol and the Spartan offensive line. The most complete effort of the season for the Big Green vs. scUM in a game they HAD to win.

The AP axed scUM from its Top 25 this week:

RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Florida (54)	4-0	1486
2	Texas (1)	4-0	1416
3	Alabama (5)	5-0	1404
4	LSU	5-0	1290
5	Virginia Tech	4-1	1200
6	Boise State	5-0	1185
7	USC	4-1	1108
8	Cincinnati	5-0	1004
9	Ohio State	4-1	994
10	TCU	4-0	940
11	Miami (FL)	3-1	931
12	Iowa	5-0	823
13	Oregon	4-1	676
14	Penn State	4-1	564
15	Oklahoma State	3-1	563
16	Kansas	4-0	513
17	Auburn	5-0	428
18	Brigham Young	4-1	403
19	Oklahoma	2-2	370
20	Mississippi	3-1	357
21	Nebraska	3-1	333
22	Georgia Tech	4-1	311
23	South Florida	5-0	238
24	Missouri	4-0	215
25	South Carolina	4-1	200

Dropped from rankings: Houston 12, Georgia 18, Michigan 22, California 24

Others receiving votes: Wisconsin 157, Houston 142, Georgia 115, Stanford 50, Utah 31, Michigan 25, Boston College 12, Notre Dame 9, Pittsburgh 3, Arizona 2, West Virginia 2,

Schedule strength: MSU #32, scUM #105

Now, why would a 1-3 Michigan State team at all be favored over a #22, 4-0 Michigan Yellow Belly team? The ES looks a bit deeper into the OPPONENTS PLAYED to get a better sense at where these teams stand heading into rivalry weekend. Again, this early in the season, the ES uses Sagarin rankings because not only do they rank every team, but also every Division I-FCS and FBS team; Sagarin is also a component in the BCS rankings, as if that matters.

Michigan State is #59 in the Sagarin rankings. scUM is #30.

Michigan State schedule ranking is #32, with a 71.7 score:
Montana State (home): #141, W.
Central Michigan (home): #57, L.
Notre Dame (away): #32, L.
Wisconsin (away): #31, L.

scUM schedule ranking is #105, with a 63.9 score:
Western Michigan (home): #90, W.
Notre Dame (home): #32, W.
Eastern Michigan (home): #159, W.
Indiana (home): #68, W.

Summary: Both teams played Notre Dame about even, with the W to Michigan's home field. MSU played CMU to within one point and lost; Michigan beat Indiana by three. Both teams pounded the worst team on their schedule (Montana State, EMU). Michigan handled WMU easily at home; the Spartans laid an egg on the road at Wisconsin.

A big edge in this game goes to Spartan Stadium and MSU's home field, as scUM has not yet traveled away from The Hole in the Ground this year. The rockin' nature of the Big Green Stadium will certainly rattle Mr. Forcier and his sore shoulder this week.

INJURIES ON THE FRONT LINES: The Doctor is trying to save the redshirt of several freshmen, but injuries and ineffectiveness on the offensive and defensive lines may lead to MD playing Henry Conway at offensive tackle and Blake Treadwell in a pass rush situation. LG Joel Foreman is questionable (ankle); OT J'Michael Deane (leg) is questionable.

ND predictions & MSU Offensive line roster update

{UPDATED AT 2:35 PM} If you didn't know, the ES posted a new poll in the right column, give your thoughts on the key ingredient to victory over the Friggin' Irish.

Looks like Joel Nitchman is a go for the offensive line at center, but J'Michael Deane is a scratch. That's an imporvement, as we really need Nitchman, but watch out for the right side of the line which has been weaker in the first two games. Add to it that Chris Norman may be getting more reps at LB after the poor play by Brandon Denson.

MORE PREDICTIONS/PREVIEWS (adding more...)

Big Ten Network (MSU 27-24), Chicago Tribune, ESPN/Brian Bennett (ND 28-23), SpartyMSU (MSU 34-24), SportsNetwork (ND 34-24), Wojo/Det News (ND 35-20), Rakes of Mallow, Hammer and Rails (MSU 24-21), UHND.com (ND 34-23), ESPN/Adam Rittenberg (ND 28-27), Free Press (ND 28-24).

What drives me crazy about folks like Fred Bierman at the NYT is that this game "simply is a must win for the Irish." Or, ESPN's Adam Rittenberg, that the Irish "need it more." What about that other team? And not for MSU? It is that sort of disrespect that needs a slap in the face... At least the Chicago Tribune paints both sides equal.

HEY, COUSINS, WATCH OUT FOR MCCARTHY

A great, indepth article on Notre Dame CB Kyle McCarthy posted over at the Fort Wayne News-Sentinel. Said Chuck E Weis: "“Kyle's been (steady) for two years. He seldom misses a tackle and he's usually in the right spot. He comes up with big plays. His interception (against Michigan) led to a score.” He wears #28.

Michigan State defense: "is it soft?"

A few more thoughts on Michigan State heading into South Bend.

If (yes, "if") Michigan State had defeated CMU, likely there wouldn't be the amount of skepticism over the Spartans as there is currently. The Chips had the better game and deserved to win; but, they needed an onside kick recovery, soft Spartan defense, and a penalty to give them another shot at the winning FG. Let's be honest: if MSU wins, maybe ND would be favored by 3 or 4, but not by 11. That's a TD difference, and the Spartans only lost by two -- this doesn't add up. Furthermore, if I remember correctly, this is a ND team that was 7-6 last year that lost to an improved, but not invincible, 3-9 Michigan team from a year ago: that game last week wasn't USC vs Ohio State: it was a hype-fest of two "storied" programs both of which have coaches on the hot-seat.

As stated earlier, I think the CMU game was our first real game of the year; we didn't learn anything vs Montana State. Now, this week, is where MSU needs to make its biggest improvement; and it has the talent to do it. When folks state the Spartan defense is "soft," at this point I'm not buying it as the m.o. for the team -- with an experienced defense, expect them to play far better... which should be an improvement over last year. It was soft (vs CMU), not is soft (I hope). Don't get me wrong, the Spartan defense didn't play up to expectations... but D-ccordinator Pat Narduzzi needs to cut them loose and Lefevour had a solid game experience the week before (at Arizona) to adjust and improve for the trip to Michigan State. Against ND, the ES expects a tenacious Spartan defense that will play better - the Spartans gave up 7 points to ND last year (both teams with roughly the same players)... and y'all think we'll give up 30 this week? ???

The Spartan offense should be the major concern: can a team (ND) giving up 170 yards a game on the ground stop a rushing game (MSU) that has been relatively ineffective (3.4 ypc against CMU)? Can the O-line open a few holes, and can the RBs hit them for some gains and take some pressure off Cousins/Nichol? Can the O-line keep the ND defensive pressure at bay, and if not, can the offense better use its talented TEs and drop the ball to RBs in the flat (unlike last week)? Having Mark Dell and Joel Nitchman back are huge pluses... and hopefully MSU can stretch the field a bit more with its wideouts. They just need to hang on to the damn ball.

That said, this game really is in the coaches hands as far as how they handle their game plan for the Irish and focus this team to play how they are expected to play. Playing ND this week is perfect: we need to see how the Doctor handles adversity, and he's got it right in his face. The ES says, BRING IT ON!

SPARTAN PLAYERS MEETING
The ES doesn't read a whole lot into the Spartans having a players-only "team meeting" following the CMU debacle. That's all fine and dandy, and if that is how the captains determine they want to focus this team, then so be it. But, it isn't a panacea - rather it just shows that the players are taking ownership of the situation. They still need to block better, tackle better, catch better, and run better. A player's meeting won't fix that; but practice and focus will.

Biggest Dissapointment: DBs; Biggest Concern? Running game

The biggest disappointment on Saturday vs. Central Michgian? The play of the Spartan defensive secondary, being smoked left, right, and up the middle (CMU's LeFevour went 34-of-47, a blistering 73% completion rate, for 352 yards). D-coord Pat Narduzzi effectively tied their hands by playing a base defense... The ES kept yelling, "where the hell is the bump-and-run?" and, "where are the blitzes???" If this team has such damn good talent in the defensive backfield, why play scared? Where the hell is the aggressiveness? Tackle, hit, and get after the Goddam Irish on Saturday; the Spartan DBs better not be waiting, or they'll just get run over. Downright embarrassing.

The biggest concern? The Spartan running game. Let's start with the play of the Spartan offensive line. My God, they looked uninspired and couldn't run block as well as my grandma. They looked better in pass blocking, but not by much. John Stipek looked confused half the time replacing Joel Nitchman (sprained knee) at center. You wonder how much of an impact that had on the line - we NEED Nitchman back. At RB, at least Caulton Ray hit the holes going forward and had a few yards. Larry Caper needs to ditch the "I wanna look like Barry Sanders" dance moves and run forward and hit the holes or the Irish will break his ankles and eat him alive. Listen, ND gave up 190 yards rushing to the Yellow Bellies of Ann Arbor, so there IS room to run. But, MSU better find it.

Spartans... Touchdown Jesus is waiting for you. You want some, or you want to just give up? Here is the best opportunity to RUIN the Irish pride. What do you do when a rabid dog is in a corner? You grab it by the neck and stomp on it. Ruin their day, their season, their football tradition. I want it. Do you? Go out and do it. It will be sweet redemption and put the Spartan Nation back on track. 1-2 is unacceptable. Go get it done.

Scouting Montana State: MSU Kickoff 2009

Five days until Michigan State serves up some skewered Bobcat on its menu. It's interesting to see three OL starters have "suffered from ailments" this fall: Rocco Cironi, Joel Nitchman and J'Michael Deane. This has opened the door to Brendan Moss to see some playing time. Watch the OL closely vs the Bobcats this week.

Scouting the Bobcats

According to the Bobcats sports info, their last practice of the fall was "sharp" on both sides of the ball. Four QBs combined to throw for 306 yards with two competing for the starting job: Mark Iddins completed 19 of his 24 passes for 148 yards, and Cody Kempt finished 8-for-15 for 100 yards. The offenses didn't commit a turnover, and four players on its defense were "able to generate an effective pass rush." Two of their starting running backs (Aaron Mason, Blayde Becksted) are out with injuries, leaving it to sophomore CJ Palmer and redshirt freshman Ricky Evans (65 yards on 8 carries in the scrimmage). If you want your fix on the Bobcats, with a likely preview from the Bozeman Daily Chronicle, visit the Blue & Gold blog.