ES Preview: MSU Bubba Smith hosts PVAM Kenny Houston

Michigan State Spartans (2-0) host Prairie View A&M Panthers (1-1)
September 14, 2024.  3:30 pm.
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
TV: BTN

Weather: hot, 85 and sunny, no wind. 
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #74, Prairie View #234
Line Outta Vegas (via LSJ): MSU by 41 points with an O/U of 10-1/2.  So, the prediction would be MSU to win by at least 40-10. 

Who is the most famous Prairie View alumni?  I googled it, and remember Ken Houston, who played both for the Houston Oilers and (as I remember watching him) for the Washington Redskins.  He was one of the first lock-down corners as I remember, and he dominated the NFL for about a decade years (named to the Pro Bowl 12 times). 

Here's Kenny Houston, tackling Walter Payton.  PVAM don't have him today.

Not much about this game.  It's a B1G vs a HBCU in FCS.  The Big Green Touchdown Machine was originally scheduled to play Louisiana-Lafayette, but replaced it with PVAM for $500,000.  The Spartans better win.

MSU's plan?  Just stay healthy.  MSU travels to Boston College (#58 in Sagarin) next week, and BC really is an unknown, other than they can run the ball like crazy and beat a terrible Florida State team in Tallahassee.  So, stay healthy, win, and move on.  Maybe Adian Chiles can work on his footwork and we can just run the ball.  Lots of Gatorade in the heat today.

Prognostications:

Big Bob: MSU 34-17
Pontiac Keith: MSU 42-6
Uncle Denny: MSU 42-17
Australian Paul: 38-0 MSU. After the game, the opposing coach is found in the bathroom, curled up in the foetal position singing "you make me feel like a natural woman"
Doc: Win, but look like crap at times. Growing pains. MSU 31-16

ES sez:  MSU 38-10

DETROIT LIONS. ONE STOP ON THE JET TO THE PROMISED LAND.

ELVIS SAYS THE LIONS WILL MAKE IT TO THE PROMISED LAND. 

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TRIFECTA HITS AGAIN! MSU wins, UM gets its ass kicked, ND loses to the MAC

TRIFECTA IN FAVOR OF MICHIGAN STATE... AGAIN!!!!!

With MSU’s dramatic win over Maryland 27-24 (the ES predicted MSU would win 26-24), combined with the gutting of scUM by Texas, 31-12, and the disaster by the Right Wing Irish to lowly Northern Illinois at home 16-14… WE HIT THE TRIFECTA!!!

This is rare, for MSU to win on the same weekend that Michigan and Notre Dame lose.  It’s a great feeling. I hate those two football teams more than any other in college football, because they’ve had enough time winning. Share the wealth.  The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

From 2015-2024, the Trifecta ooccured 4 times, including today (Sep 7, 2024).  (4 times over 120 weekends = 3.3% frequency).

• From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
• From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
• Seven times in the past 57 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
• Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009 and the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
• There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 57 years. 

Below is a list of the few Trifectas since 2014, and you can link to a previous post from the ES back in 2014 which outlined all of this data back into ancient history.

Date	MSU	ND	MICH
9/7/24	W, 27-24 MD	L, 14-16 NIU	L, 12-31 TEX
9/21/19	W, 31-10 NW	L, 17-23 GA	L 14-35, WIS
11/25/17	W, 40-7 RUT	L, 20-38 STAN	L, 20-31 OHST
11/28/15	W, 55-16 PSU	L, 36-38 STAN	L, 13-42 OHST

Here’s the link to before 2015: https://enlightenedspartan.blogspot.com/2014/11/michigan-state-hits-rare-2-weekend.html

ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Turtles

Welcome to College Park Maryland, aka Melvindale, Michigan

Michigan State Spartans (1-0) at Maryland Turtles (1-0)

SECU Stadium.  College Park, Maryland

September 7, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.

Weather: 73 and partly cloudy. 

Sagarin Ratings: Michigan State #80. Maryland #37.  

Line Outta Vegas: Maryland by around 9 points.  

About the Sagarin Ratings.  Why the hell does the ES use this?  Many reasons.  First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99.  So - there is some smarmy connection there.  Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS).  As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).  

So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her.  So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.  

So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285

Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas.  I hope she’s wrong. 

The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland.  The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium.  Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke.  The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game.  So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans.  It was weird.   As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster.  All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town. 

Hopefully, we can return the favor to beat the former Chancellor's school today...

In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan.  We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years.  He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.”  He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.”  He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better.  But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss. 

That’s some of my Maryland experiences.  

How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?”  I dunno.  What do you think?

Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season.  I am leaning toward the former.

Big Bob: MD 31-17

Aussie Paul:  MSU 44-0

Uncle Denny: MSU 31-28

PB Skooz: 34-21 Good Guys
Lansing Doc:  MSU 23-19

Pontiac Keith: Maryland 28-13

SF Chock Maryland 28-10

ES sez, MSU surprises, 26-24