ES Preview: MSU hosts Arseholes from Columbus

Michigan State Spartans vs Ohio State Buckasses 

September 28, 2024.  7:30 pm.  Peacock TV.

Weather: 65 and cloudy.  Maybe some misty rain thanks to Helene remnants.

Line Outta Vegas: Ohio State by 23-1/2

Sagarin Ratings: Buckass #4, Spartans #67

This is what BuckNut deserves, a gut blow.  Unfortunately, we're not #9. 2015.

Or this, $atan beating #1 Buckass in the HorseShoe. 1999. 

 

Levi Jackson running 88 yards to beat #1 Ohio State in East Lansing. 1974.

We beat Ohio State about every 10-15 years.  Is this the year?

It actually sucks writing this preview.  First off, LOTS of complaints about this game on Peacock.  I agree with you people. It is demonstrative of the changing times with streaming from antenna to cable to satellite to streaming.  And it is costing ALL of us billions to fatten the wallets of the rich folk, in many ways I cannot count. But, while it is expensive for the providers, they really could give a crap about their consumers who are football-hungry.  It's too bad, but it is reality.  More content = more costs = more money. You want your football today, you've gotta pay for it.  But, certainly worthy of Congressional investigation.  That's another post. 

Ohio State has absolutely throttled Michigan State at home the last several times I attended.  I left at halftime.  Half the stadium will be filled with Buckeye fans, who are complete a$$holes and abonoxioius as if Ohio State deserves to be in the NFL. I've encountered this many times in my life at MSU-OSU games, especially when MSU beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Title game to go to the Rose Bowl back in 2014.  About 90% of the OSU fans I encountered in stadiums are rude, mean, and in-your face.  That includes Buck-Nut.  Not impressed with the F*uckeye fan base. No wonder why Kirk Herbstreit left Columbus to move to Cincinnati - even that Buckeye QB alum couldn't stand it anymore. 

I think the Michigan State defense is pretty good, and might be able to hold up for a while, especially in the rain.  Like the interior D, like the pressure and great play by LBs.  The problem is the offense, and Aidan Chiles. He's a turnover machine and makes very bad throws under pressure; which may very well be today against the Buckeyes.  The dude needs to learn how to take a sack and throw the ball away for another play.  He has wheels, and may likely burn the Buckeyes a few times with his wheels... if he survives. 

MSU, at this time under Jonathan Smith, is just a year or two away from moving up to the top half of the league. With the Spartans' laundry list of injuries (will this ever change? MSU is always more injury-bitten than most early in the season, leading to question marks about the level of talent brought to East Lansing), it is hard to identify where MSU wins, unless the defense creates massive turnovers, Jonathan Kim kicks 6 field goals, and the punting game puts the Buckeeys in long drives that lead to... turnovers.  That's a tall ask. 

Prognostications:

Tailgate Master J: OSU 42-7.  We about to get Bitch Slapped with the pimp hand!

Pittsburgh Sloth: MSU pain and suffering.  Ohio State 45-10

Pontiac Keith: Ohio State 42-12

Big Bob:  Ohio State 56 - 5 INTs for MSU

Princess Catherine:  Ohio State 45-7

ES Sez:  Ohio State 35, MSU 16. 

ES sez: Ohio State 35, MSU 16.

ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs That Other Catholic School

Michigan State Spartans (3-0) at Boston College Eagles (3-0)

Alumni Stadium, Chester Hill, Massachusetts

September 21, 2024.  8:00 pm ET.

TV: ACC Network

Weather:  59 degrees, RAIN.  

Sagarin Ratings: Boston College #55, Michigan State #69

Line Outta Vegas:  The Other Catholics by 5.5

BC Stadium Capacity 44,500. Yikes, that's ACC tiny. 

Yes, it will rain today in Boston.  Rain, rain, rain.

 Big Bob and the ES saw these boys sing this live in EL about 20 years ago.  Let it rain rain rain in Boston.

The ES is up at Mackinac Island for the weekend and will watch the game from the City.  A bit distracted from football today, but will pop in to catch scores during the game around lunch, bicycling, the Grand Hotel, and fudge.   72 and sunny today here up north; better than the pouring rain expected during the game today in Boston.  

First of all, BC has has two significant contests on the road:  a win at wannabees Florida State and BC pushed #6 Mizzou to the limit last week. The Other Catholics have a great rushing attack, with a mobile QB with Nick Castellanos who also has 9 TD passes.  The Boston College running game has been the key for the Eagles. Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward has 153 yards through three games, and the Eagles are averaging 205 yards per game on the ground and 5 yards per carry. The Spartan defense is 23rd in FBS in rushing defense, allowing 78 yards per game.  This is key, especially in a rain storm.

Spartan QB Aidan Chiles has all the talent in the world, with wheels to boot. However, the young man has lots of coaching in front as he must learn to settle down and set his feet before he throws instead of behaving like Patrick Mahomes.  Each time, this gets him into trouble resulting in overthrows and INTs. If he can settle in and MSU can find a way to use its run game, it should have a chance.  But, MSU needs to stop the Other Catholic rushing attack.  Watch Chiles try to lengthen the field to standout 17-year old Nick Marsh.  One or two hits on this could be tremendous.  Can the MSU defense hold up and create a few turnovers in the rain?  Pray and find out. 

This will be a challenging contest for the newbie, undefeated Spartan coach Jonathan Smith, who has MSU undefeated and sitting atop the Big Ten through three games. 

Prognostications:

Big Bob: BC 28-24 MSU
Amsterdam CHock: My original pick was what Bob said. To be different,  I'll say BC 27 - MSU 20
Keith:  MSU 24-23

Australian Paul:  MSU 41-0. We're talking scalps. 

Pittsburgh Sloth:  I predict beer. 

ES sez, MSU 27, BC 23.  

ES Preview: MSU Bubba Smith hosts PVAM Kenny Houston

Michigan State Spartans (2-0) host Prairie View A&M Panthers (1-1)
September 14, 2024.  3:30 pm.
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
TV: BTN

Weather: hot, 85 and sunny, no wind. 
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #74, Prairie View #234
Line Outta Vegas (via LSJ): MSU by 41 points with an O/U of 10-1/2.  So, the prediction would be MSU to win by at least 40-10. 

Who is the most famous Prairie View alumni?  I googled it, and remember Ken Houston, who played both for the Houston Oilers and (as I remember watching him) for the Washington Redskins.  He was one of the first lock-down corners as I remember, and he dominated the NFL for about a decade years (named to the Pro Bowl 12 times). 

Here's Kenny Houston, tackling Walter Payton.  PVAM don't have him today.

Not much about this game.  It's a B1G vs a HBCU in FCS.  The Big Green Touchdown Machine was originally scheduled to play Louisiana-Lafayette, but replaced it with PVAM for $500,000.  The Spartans better win.

MSU's plan?  Just stay healthy.  MSU travels to Boston College (#58 in Sagarin) next week, and BC really is an unknown, other than they can run the ball like crazy and beat a terrible Florida State team in Tallahassee.  So, stay healthy, win, and move on.  Maybe Adian Chiles can work on his footwork and we can just run the ball.  Lots of Gatorade in the heat today.

Prognostications:

Big Bob: MSU 34-17
Pontiac Keith: MSU 42-6
Uncle Denny: MSU 42-17
Australian Paul: 38-0 MSU. After the game, the opposing coach is found in the bathroom, curled up in the foetal position singing "you make me feel like a natural woman"
Doc: Win, but look like crap at times. Growing pains. MSU 31-16

ES sez:  MSU 38-10

DETROIT LIONS. ONE STOP ON THE JET TO THE PROMISED LAND.

ELVIS SAYS THE LIONS WILL MAKE IT TO THE PROMISED LAND. 

video

TRIFECTA HITS AGAIN! MSU wins, UM gets its ass kicked, ND loses to the MAC

TRIFECTA IN FAVOR OF MICHIGAN STATE... AGAIN!!!!!

With MSU’s dramatic win over Maryland 27-24 (the ES predicted MSU would win 26-24), combined with the gutting of scUM by Texas, 31-12, and the disaster by the Right Wing Irish to lowly Northern Illinois at home 16-14… WE HIT THE TRIFECTA!!!

This is rare, for MSU to win on the same weekend that Michigan and Notre Dame lose.  It’s a great feeling. I hate those two football teams more than any other in college football, because they’ve had enough time winning. Share the wealth.  The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

From 2015-2024, the Trifecta ooccured 4 times, including today (Sep 7, 2024).  (4 times over 120 weekends = 3.3% frequency).

• From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
• From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
• Seven times in the past 57 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
• Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009 and the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
• There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 57 years. 

Below is a list of the few Trifectas since 2014, and you can link to a previous post from the ES back in 2014 which outlined all of this data back into ancient history.

Date	MSU	ND	MICH
9/7/24	W, 27-24 MD	L, 14-16 NIU	L, 12-31 TEX
9/21/19	W, 31-10 NW	L, 17-23 GA	L 14-35, WIS
11/25/17	W, 40-7 RUT	L, 20-38 STAN	L, 20-31 OHST
11/28/15	W, 55-16 PSU	L, 36-38 STAN	L, 13-42 OHST

Here’s the link to before 2015: https://enlightenedspartan.blogspot.com/2014/11/michigan-state-hits-rare-2-weekend.html

ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Turtles

Welcome to College Park Maryland, aka Melvindale, Michigan

Michigan State Spartans (1-0) at Maryland Turtles (1-0)

SECU Stadium.  College Park, Maryland

September 7, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.

Weather: 73 and partly cloudy. 

Sagarin Ratings: Michigan State #80. Maryland #37.  

Line Outta Vegas: Maryland by around 9 points.  

About the Sagarin Ratings.  Why the hell does the ES use this?  Many reasons.  First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99.  So - there is some smarmy connection there.  Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS).  As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).  

So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her.  So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.  

So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285

Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas.  I hope she’s wrong. 

The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland.  The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium.  Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke.  The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game.  So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans.  It was weird.   As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster.  All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town. 

Hopefully, we can return the favor to beat the former Chancellor's school today...

In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan.  We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years.  He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.”  He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.”  He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better.  But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss. 

That’s some of my Maryland experiences.  

How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?”  I dunno.  What do you think?

Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season.  I am leaning toward the former.

Big Bob: MD 31-17

Aussie Paul:  MSU 44-0

Uncle Denny: MSU 31-28

PB Skooz: 34-21 Good Guys
Lansing Doc:  MSU 23-19

Pontiac Keith: Maryland 28-13

SF Chock Maryland 28-10

ES sez, MSU surprises, 26-24

Michigan State's offense requires new teeth

I have all 32 teeth. Let's see how many remain after this Spartan fall.

I am not going to Spartan Stadium on Saturday's this fall for tooth extractions.  I won't do it. 

It was disappointing.  Too many mistakes everywhere by Michigan State, especially playing against a sub-par opponent in Florida Atlantic.  We’re 1-0, but here are some of my thoughts.

About last night’s game.  It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out MSU is in trouble on the offensive line.  Three yards and a cloud of dust?"  We fed the ball to Carter 19 times for 2.5 yards a carry.  That sucks.  And, many of the plays were telegraphed.  I'm sitting up in Section 121 with Sloth, the God Deieter, and the rest of the section, yelling "My God, stop running it up the middle!!!!  It doesn't work!"  Unfortunately, the coaches didn't listen and kept at it, with little result to show.  Funny how I got cheers from the crowd: the thought being if we struggle to beat FAU, what the hell is gonna happen when Ohio State comes to town?  Michigan State has lots of problems on the offensive interior.  The offensive line could use my dead grandma to open up some holes.  Everything between the tackles was inconsistent and for the most part unproductive.  Let’s look.  

MSU had 179 yards on the ground: that’s pretty good, but what is the problem is looking at efficiency:

https://msuspartans.com/sports/football/stats\

Though MSU averaged 4.8 yards per carry, the issue is that 63 was on one TD run by Lynch-Adams (who should clearly be the starter).  Those are real yards and they count; if this is a consistent trend, I would pleasure it and sell the barn. But the problem is the rest of the game, and when you take out the run, MSU was 36 rushes for just 116 yards or a 3.2 average.  That’s not good.  

If you were at the game, as was I, the game was not fun to watch. Fairly boring, mistakes, poor tackling, and bad blocking.  But what became apparent as the game wore on, was the ineffectiveness of the interior offensive line of MSU.  It seemed like much of the time, QB Aidan Chiles was running for his life.  That’s not a good sign.  

Speaking of Chiles, he missed many wide-open throws, a wide-open TD opportunity that went three rows into the seats, and threw a very bad INT in what should have been a pix-6 as State was driving deep in FAU territory: we were gonna score, and my g-friend and I expected as much, to go up 23-3 and head for the exits.  But, then the stupid throw by Chiles.  It wasn’t good.  Watch it on replay. He only completed 10 passes on 25 attempts, with 2 interceptions.  According to MSU, that's a terrible 62.9 QB rating for Chiles (FAU's QB had an 84.2 rating, and that's accurate as he was the better QB in this game). 

Look at this photo:

This is what you teach QBs NOT TO DO.  Throw off your back foot falling back and making your shoulder do all the work.  Hey, Chiles, your 18 years old, dude.  Step into your throws and stop thinking your talent is going to bail you out.  This is a big problem.  He needs much more coaching on his decision-making.  He did not throw well. 

However, it wasn't all his fault.  WR Montorie Foster dropped two passes, ran poor routes, and fumbled.  He did not play well. He should not be the top option for Chiles, because he is unreliable.  It's unfortunate, but the proof is in the play and not the potential. We need him to play better. 

We also learned that RB Nate Carter was busy eating too many Cheetos and Pizza Hut this summer.  19 carries for 52 yards, mostly up the middle into madness, that's a whopping 2.5 yards per carry.  Carter was completely useless in this game; and, while some of it was poor interior blocking and poor play calling, he had several opportunities to bounce outside.  Instead, Carter just plowed into the middle like Jehuu Caulcrik or Earl Campbell, but with less mass and brains, making Carter just fall down. You can't just plow into the middle when everyone expects it and have Carter get the yards; it's like running into a brick wall; many times, poor ingenuity and poor execution. It reminded me of the John L Smith years, constantly underperforming and making mistakes.  Luckily, we have an effective back in Lynch-Adams, and both his dashiness and his speed were clearly on display. He was the player of the game. 

On defense, they were asked to do more than they should have.  They held up pretty well, giving up just 248 total yards despite all the gifts from the MSU offense. And, they managed SEVEN sacks on a very mobile FAU quarterback.  The talent difference really showed on the defensive front.  MSU should be very tough here this season.  I was pretty surprised about the play of #7 Jordan Turner and #8 Anthony Jones.  They were all over the place and tackled well - it's a big positive for this team.  They played well, and bailed out the offense on several occasions.  

Bottom line, I really really REALLY do not want a season AGAIN where the defense is bailing out the offense.  It makes for ugly wins, gutwrenching games, making things harder than they should be, and just making you want to crap your pants every week.  It’s a lot more fun to watch the Detroit Lions than the MSU Spartans.  Maybe Jonathan should call Dan Campbell?  Hmmmm…..

MSU must beat Maryland next week.  It will not be easy. There are a lot problems that must get fixed. And, it all starts with that interior offensive line.  Tell Foster to catch the damn ball.  And tell Aidan to chill and make better decisions.  All of them have gotta play better.  

GO GREEN. 

Enlightened Spartan 2024 Preview

Is this the official song for Michigan State this year?  "Gouge Away"?...we can use a biblical performance by the Spartans this fall. 

Well, Spartan fans.  Here we are.  2024, bring it on.  The one thing we can all agree on:  we can only go UP.   This is the 24th year the ES has published a Michigan State preview.  I'm getting old. 

It's interesting bringing in a new coach for the umpteenth time in my life (Daugherty, Stoltz, Muddy Waters, Perles, $aban, Williams, John L Smith, Dantonio, Tucker, now John A. Smith).  I'm hopeful, and as the ES first predicted on October 6 of last year, Smith would leave his alma mater for greener pastures here in East Lansing.  He's the right guy with recruiting/embracing NIL, tough running game, dynamic QB play, and a rugged defense.  It fits the "tough guy" image of Michigan State that we can only hope pays off.  At $7 million a year, we hope it pays off.

What does the depth chart tell us?  

I'm very keen on watching the line play - on offense, we've plugged the holes with two transfer seniors (including Tanner Miller from Oregon State) joining returnee Brandon Baldwin, and two red-shirt sophomores.  What's the improvement?  From the weight room? Or is it better scheming?  Or just talent?  Our pass defense has been atrocious the past five years, in part because of poor ability to get to the quarterback putting sub-standard DBs on islands and getting burned time and again.

On defense, we have four transfers (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech).  Reminds me a bit back in the day when John "Loser" Smith would plug the losses with transfers on the way to 7-5 seasons.  We can do better, and watch #7 Jordan Turner, a senior out of Wisconsin playing linebacker.  He should be damn good. 

The bonus seems we have a good kicking game (the way it used to be pre-Mel), with Eckley at punter and Jonathan Kim at FGs.  That should help the defense out.  But the offense needs to move the ball to do its part.  To that end, Aidan Chiles is an X-factor who has speed to burn and is a spot-on high level recruit who also transferred from Oregon State.  He's lucky he gets to hand the ball off to Nate Carter, who was easily Michigan State's best RB last year.  Fast, swifty, and with a punch: he reminds me of LJ Scott.  We just need the boys up front to keep the enemy at bay and open them holes.  

The first game against Florida Atlantic should be an interesting test.  Below, we have some prognostications for the season; there will be another brief post with a preview of FAU shortly.  But, this is what the pundits say about MSU this year:

1. What will be the MSU final record in 2024?

2. Will MSU go to a bowl game, and which one?

3. On a scale of 1-5 (1= bad, 5 = good), how do you think new QB Aidian Chiles will perform while making $1 Million in NIL money for the Spartans?

4. What will be the biggest win for MSU?

5. What will be the worst loss for MSU?

6. Are you going to an MSU away game? Which one and why?

7. Which musical act or song will best represent MSU football this year?

Aussie Paul:

1. 15-0

2. National Chamionship

3. 5

4. National Championship

5. N/A

6. No, too far

7. Slayer- "raining blood"

Pittsburgh Lee:

1. 6-6, maybe 7-5.  

2. Whatever the Pizza Bowl is called these days.  

3. Better than Noah Kim, worse than Connor Cook, but exciting to watch.  

4. Win: UM.  

5. Loss: OSU.  

6. Every MSU home game is an away game for me, lol.  

7. "My Erection is Over", a true punk classic.

Pontiac Keith:

I expect that we will be similar to what we were in sabans first year with us.

Mediocre or slightly above...

Lansing Cat:

We'll go 6-6, with our best win over Iowa. and our biggest loss against Michigan.  Song for the year?  "Do You Really Want to Hurt Me?" by Culture Club. 

Big Bob:

1) MSU goes 6-6 this season 

2) but no bowl game. The big jump in performance comes next year 

3) Aiden Chiles will be a 3.1417 on a 1-5 scale 

4) The biggest win in terms of points will be Prayery View but in terms of importance will be Iowa 

5) The biggest loss will once again be to Ohio State 

6) No away game this year but USC would be a great trip next season!

7) Without question, “I want my balls back” by The Exciting Sounds of Savo will best represent MSU this year

The ES:

1.  7-5.

2.  Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Presented by Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop

3.  4 out of 5.  Not his fault if he is running for his life. 

4.  Biggest win?  Iowa

5.  Biggest loss? Ohio State

6.  Oregon, to go see my mom in Port Angeles, WA.  

7.  "Waiting Room" by Fugazi

Aug. 30: Florida Atlantic.  W.  37-17.
Sep. 7. at Maryland.  L.  20-24.
Sep 14. Prairie View A&M.  W.  48-10.
Sep. 21. at Boston College.  W. 31-20.
Sep. 28.  Ohio State.  L.  10-42.
Oct. 4.  at Oregon.  L. 17-45.

Oct. 11. BYE
Oct. 19.  Iowa.  W.  8-4.
Oct. 26.  at Michigan.  L. 16-35.
Nov. 2.  Indiana. W.  32-27.

Nov. 9. BYE
Nov. 16. at Illinois. L.  20-26.
Nov. 22.  Purdue.  W.  35-14.
Nov. 30.  Rutgers.  W.  27-21. 

ENJOY THE SEASON!  GO BIG GREEN TOUCHDOWN MACHINE!!!